As the Jacksonville Jaguars continue to figure out who will be their marquee players in 2026, members of the national media have begun considering what the ceiling for Liam Coen's offense could be during his second year on the job.
As with most NFL teams, the Jaguars' passing game will be the main determinant of the team's success this season. However, Kristopher Knox's listicle on every NFL offense's best and worst case for Bleacher Report shows that the real x-factor for the Jags is a variable that's a bit more nuanced.
According to Knox, Brian Thomas Jr.'s ability to rebound from his lackluster 2025 campaign is what will help the Jaguars improve from a record-breaking year that helped them score the most single-season passing touchdowns in franchise history and finish as the 11th-best unit across the entire league. While elaborating on his entire take, the writer said:
"The Jacksonville Jaguars were one of the AFC's biggest surprises in 2025, due in large part to the resurgent play of quarterback Trevor Lawrence. While Lawrence had arguably the best campaign of his pro career under new head coach Liam Coen, though, wideout Brian Thomas Jr. regressed in a big way." He continued, "Thomas was a rookie Pro Bowler who topped 1,200 receiving yards in 2024. He tallied just 707 yards this past season, though."
Basic math shows that BTJ essentially lost 500 yards of production as the Jaguars' No. 1 option between his rookie and sophomore campaigns. He wasn't the only wideout who had a disappointing start to the year, but James Gladstone's lack of activity in free agency shows that the front office is banking on its current core to take Jacksonville to the promised land.
But is it really an All-Pro or bust type of situation for BTJ in Duval?
To make sure we're all on the same page, I agree that Jacksonville needs BTJ to return to form as quickly as possible. Business-wise, he's still playing on his rookie contract for this season, the next one, and, if things were to get testy, his fifth-year option. Elite production at the wide receiver position for that low of a price tag is, ironically, priceless.
On the field, having a 6-foot-2 deep threat who runs a 4.33 40-yard dash and can flip those traits into a long and excellent career in a teal jersey would be even better (and rarer in Jacksonville's case). However, I don't think BTJ has to perform at an All-Pro level for the Jaguars to have a deep playoff run. In fact, Knox says that Thomas would only need to [return] to Pro Bowl form" for the Jags to reach their ceiling.
In actuality, the LSU Tiger could catch 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns this year while the team around him completely falls apart. That's pretty much what happened to Allen Robinson in 2015, as he had what would be the best season of his career while the Jags, as a whole, finished 5-11.
I don't want to stray too far from the topic, but the worst-case scenario for the Jaguars' offense, according to Knox, would be for the decision to let Travis Etienne sign with the New Orleans Saints to backfire. The journalist explains that, "Jacksonville didn't invest much into replacing Etienne, only adding Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Ameer Abdullah. Instead, it seems content to bet on 2025 fourth-round pick Bhayshul Tuten.
As he went on, Knox said, "Tuten showed some promise as a rookie, but if he and the rest of Jacksonville's new-look backfield can't replicate what Etienne accomplished last season, a one-dimensional offense could cause Lawrence to regress."
So, in the Bleacher Report contributor's worst-case scenario for Jax, BTJ's continued decline wouldn't even be the main factor. Does that mean an elite No. 1 wide receiver would be the cherry on top for Liam Coen's high-powered scheme or just one of many things that must be in place for Trevor Lawrence to build upon the foundation he and his new head coach established in 2025?
Thomas' rebound would give Lawrence a phenomenal weapon to rely on in clutch situations, but The Prince Who Was Promised hasn't done well when things break down and require him to carry the load by himself. Tuten's ability to replace Etienne would give the offense some much-needed balance and bring opposing safeties into the box as they try to stop the young back's momentum.
Fittingly enough, this outcome would let BTJ and Lawrence take advantage of mismatches in the secondary with some deep shots more often, which is a part of the playbook that has been a point of emphasis throughout the offseason thus far.
So, after that little exercise, it seems like BTJ's resurgence is the final key to the Jaguars offense reaching its full potential, but not the key on its own. As we saw in the Pacific Northwest, Jaxon Smith-Njigba's dominance was the variable that opened up the Seattle Seahawks' running game and supported Sam Darnold's journey to becoming a Super Bowl-winning quarterback. Even with all that offensive firepower, however, the punishing defense Mike McDonald fielded is what won them a Lombardi.
As Thomas enters what is now considered to be a big-money season under the current parameters of the collective bargaining agreement, it looks like everyone, from the national media to the power brokers inside EverBank Stadium, is expecting a huge surge of growth from the third-year pro. Barring a complete catastrophe, it looks like we're due to see some of the best days in Jaguars history if BTJ can remind us who he really is.
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