The Jacksonville Jaguars' 2024 season has been a disappointment, to say the least. After the Jaguars won the AFC South and a playoff game during Doug Pederson's first year in 2022, the team has regressed mightily ever since.
The Jags have just three wins on their 2024 season (at least as of this writing) and it wouldn't be the least bit surprising if Pederson was relieved of his head coaching duties. If that ends up being the case, the hottest name on the head coaching market in 2025 will be Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson.
While there hasn't been an official report linking Johnson to Jacksonville, it'd make sense if the organization was interested in him. Johnson has turned the Lions into an offensive juggernaut and put off becoming a head coach a year ago because he wanted to wait for the right job to open up.
Many have speculated that the Chicago Bears could be the right job for Johnson but the Jaguars make more sense than Chicago does. Let's look at a few reasons why it'd make sense for Johnson to pick the Jags over the Bears.
More experienced/established QB
The Jaguars' regression over the past few years has been especially disappointing because they landed Trevor Lawrence with the first overall pick in 2021. After a rough rookie season in 2021 (a lot of which could be blamed on then-head coach Urban Meyer), Lawrence looked like the guy we all watched at Clemson during his first year with Pederson.
Unfortunately, injuries and inconsistencies have plagued Lawrence recently but bringing a coach like Johnson in could get him back to being one of the AFC's most promising signal-callers. Johnson has changed Jared Goff's career by tailoring the offense to what he can do well and there's no reason to believe he couldn't make a major difference mentoring Lawrence.
If Johnson picked Jacksonville, Lawrence is a quarterback capable of doing things Johnson would want done in his offense. While Caleb Williams has shown promise in Chicago, he's still taking too many sacks and isn't as experienced as Lawrence is.
Easier division
This might be the most important one, as the Jaguars have the pleasure of playing in the weak AFC South. The Texans won the division this year despite not looking like a playoff-caliber team simply because the other three teams have not been good whatsoever.
Johnson picking the Bears would mean that he stays in the NFC North where the three other teams in that division all have double-digit wins and are playoff teams. Why would he want to make his job harder by being in a division where it's going to be hard to win when he could go to Jacksonville and coach in the wide-open AFC South?
The choice should be obvious here.
Smaller market/less pressure
While Jaguars fans obviously want the team to be successful, the rest of the NFL world only cares about the team when they're doing well. Meanwhile, Chicago is one of the largest markets in the NFL so even when the Bears are doing poorly, they're still a hot topic of conversation.
Johnson would have a lot less pressure on him by coaching in Jacksonville than he would in Chicago where every move would be heavily scrutinized. If he was the Jaguars coach and struggled in his first year, the pressure wouldn't be as intimidating if he struggled during his first year in Chicago.
Picking the smaller market here would be a smart decision for Johnson.