4 possible Jaguars Divisional Round opponents with win over L.A.

There are four teams the Jacksonville Jaguars could potentially face in the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs if they defeat the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday night.

For the first time since the 2017 season, the Jacksonville Jaguars are headed to the NFL playoffs as AFC South champions. They finished the season on a five-game winning streak which included two division-deciding wins over the Tennessee Titans.

The No. 4 seed Jaguars are set to host the No. 5 seed Los Angeles Chargers in a Wild Card matchup this Saturday night. The two teams met in Inglewood back in Week 3, and Jacksonville earned a decisive 38-10 victory.

The last time Jacksonville hosted a playoff game was in the 2017 Wild Card round, when they beat the Buffalo Bills to secure their first postseason victory since 2007. That game is their only home playoff game since 1999.  Can they get a second consecutive home playoff win in the second?

A win over the Chargers would mean that there are four possible opponents for the Jaguars the following weekend.

The No. 7 seed Miami Dolphins are the only team not in play here, as a win for them over the No. 2 seed Bills would send them to Kansas City to take on the No. 1 seed Chiefs. The Chiefs’ Divisional Round opponent is set to be whichever remaining AFC team has the lowest seed.

Jacksonville could end up going to Kansas City or Buffalo, and they could also end up going to Cincinnati to take on the No. 3 seed Bengals. And while unlikely, it’s also possible that they could host the No. 6 seed Ravens.

Let’s have a look at how each possibility can become a reality.

NOTE: All percentages based on FiveThirtyEight’s projections.

Kansas City Chiefs

If the three higher seeded AFC teams win their Wild Card games, the Jaguars would head to Kansas City for a Divisional Round game that would serve as a Week 10 rematch. This would require wins by Buffalo and Cincinnati over Miami and Baltimore, respectively, in addition to a win by Jacksonville.

The chance that this matchup takes place in the Divisional Round is 40.96%. If a Jaguars Wild Card victory is assumed, the chance it takes place in this round is 69.42%.

Buffalo Bills

The only way the Jaguars and Bills can meet in the Divisional Round is if the Jaguars aren’t the lowest seed remaining in the AFC. In addition to Jaguars and Bills victories, this would require the Ravens to upset the Bengals.

The chance that this matchup takes place in the Divisional Round is 11.55%. If a Jaguars Wild Card victory is assumed, the chance it takes place in this round is 19.58%.

Cincinnati Bengals

The same is true here regarding a potential Jaguars vs. Bengals matchup in the Divisional Round, but it would require a Bengals Wild Card win and a Bills Wild Card loss, not the other way around.

The chance that this matchup takes place in the Divisional Round is 5.06%. If a Jaguars Wild Card victory is assumed, the chance it takes place in this round is 8.58%.

Baltimore Ravens

Finally, the Jaguars do have a way to host a Divisional Round game, but only if it’s against the Ravens. For that to happen, the Ravens and Dolphins would both need to pull off Wild Card upset victories. And, of course, the Jaguars would need to take care of business.

The chance that this matchup takes place in the Divisional Round is 1.43%. If a Jaguars Wild Card victory is assumed, the chance it takes place in this round is 2.42%.