Could Jacksonville Jaguars win more than 10 games in 2022?

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence #16 NFL at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence #16 NFL at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] /

Suddenly, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ schedule doesn’t look as tough as it did before the start of the 2022 season. The Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans are beatable and AFC West teams that looked in great shape (at least on paper) just a few months ago currently look vulnerable. Could this lead to more than 10 wins for the Jags this year? It doesn’t certainly seem like a crazy proposition.

I expected Jacksonville to win nine games this season but that projection might be conservative based on how things played out. The Jaguars are currently 2-2 and should have no trouble beating the Texans in Week 5. Meanwhile, the Colts are currently 2-2-1 and already lost to the Jags in Week 2. All things considered, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Indy get swapped this year.

Speaking of the Colts, they were barely able to beat a bad Denver Broncos team on Thursday Night Football. Russell Wilson was supposed to turn the Broncos into a contender but has instead struggled to find his footing. To make matters worse, they tentatively lost left tackle Garett Bolles to a season-ending injury. The Jags will play them at Tottenham in Week 8, and they should be able to come on top.

Earlier this year, it seemed like the Raiders had done enough to compete for a playoff spot but their defense has regressed under coordinator Patrick Graham and their offense lacks synchrony. This is another game the Jaguars could also win that they were originally projected to lose.

The Jacksonville Jaguars could end up winning 11 games in 2022

So let’s say the Jaguars sweep the Colts, and beat both the Raiders and Denver, that would be three more victories than originally expected. I thought they were going to defeat the Washington Commanders but weren’t able to. If you add the three extra wins and discard the loss to the Commanders, that would give Jags 11 wins using my original prediction as a reference, that would be more than enough to qualify for the postseason and probably win the AFC South.

Of course, this is a fluid situation, and teams that looked bad early in the season later pick up steam and finish strong. Who’s to say the Raiders won’t turn the corner or that Russell Wilson will eventually gel? The NFL isn’t about how you start but how you finish.

For their part, the Jacksonville Jaguars must keep their foot on the gas pedal. They’re coming off a mistake-filled outing in Week 4. They must fix whatever issues they had and play the way they did against Indy and the Chargers. If they do, they have a shot at winning 11 games, regardless of how good or bad their remaining opponents are.

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