Trevor Lawrence seen as dark horse to lead NFL in touchdowns in 2022

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports /

After a disappointing rookie campaign, Trevor Lawrence should make a huge leap in 2022 due to changes the Jacksonville Jaguars made to the coaching staff and the upgrades they’ve made to the roster over the last few months. It may be too early to tell how much the former Clemson Tiger will improve this upcoming season but Alex Kay of Bleacher Report thinks he could exceed expectations.

Kay recently ranked the NFL’s top dark horses to lead major offensive categories and sees Lawrence as a potential candidate to lead the league in passing touchdowns in 2022. Kay notes that Lawrence had a suboptimal rookie year but believes he should improve under the “steady hand” of head coach Doug Pederson and their offseason additions.

"Like Wilson, Trevor Lawrence had an up-and-down rookie season, one marred by turnovers and Urban Meyer’s disastrous tenure as head coach. Fortunately, a steady hand in Doug Pederson is taking Mayer’s place, and Press Taylor will be running the offense, offering upside for the signal-caller to have a huge second season. Jacksonville added another high-end pass-patcher into the mix by signing Christian Kirk, bolstering a receiving corps that also features veteran Marvin Jones and an emerging Laviska Shenault Jr."

Kay goes on to argue that if the second-year quarterback lives up to his potential, he could be one of the top passers in the league as soon as this year. Other dark horse candidates to lead the NFL in touchdown passes are fellow sophomore Zach Wilson (New York Jets), and veteran Matt Ryan (Indianapolis Colts).

Trevor Lawrence is a long shot to lead the league in touchdowns in 2022.

Trevor Lawrence completed 59.6 percent of his passes for 3,641 yards with 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions last season. While that isn’t a particularly impressive statline, it’s common for quarterbacks to show significant improvement in their second year in the pros.

On the other, hand, it’s hard to envision Lawrence leading the league in touchdowns in 2022. In the AFC alone, there are at least six signal-callers with a better shot: In no particular order, Patrick Mahones, Joe Burrow, Derek Carr, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Russell Wilson.

The Jaguars have spent the offseason upgrading their offense and their defense, so an uptick in production is expected from Lawrence but scoring 35 touchdowns seem unrealistic as of this writing. If he can throw for 25 and keep his interception totals under 12, that would be considered a successful campaign.

It’s imperative for the Jacksonville Jaguars to set realistic expectations for the 2022 season. If they can win around seven or eight games and Lawrence takes a step in the right direction, they can rise the bat next year but not now.

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