Jacksonville Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke chooses traits over production, and Travon Walker over Aidan Hutchinson with the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NFL draft.
Trent Baalke is consistent, if nothing else. For months, a great debate has been held among various TV talking heads, blogs, podcasts, YouTube channels and radio stations regarding who should be the number one pick for the Jaguars in the 2022 draft. Once the Jags extended left tackle Cam Robinson, it became clear to most observers that the choice would come down to former Georgia Bulldog Travon Walker and former Michigan Wolverine Aidan Hutchinson.
Rarely has there been so obvious a contrast between one player in Walker, whose athletic profile is sensational but whose production in college is questionable, and another player in Hutchinson who, while perhaps a notch below Walker physically, had excellent stats to go along with his athleticism. Now, we know that Walker is the choice.
And that choice reveals a lot about the Jacksonville Jaguars moving forward. Because, the main differences between Walker and Hutchinson boil down to a more long-standing, broadly ranging question that afflicts every team and fanbase league-wide: What’s more important when evaluating a college player, traits or production?
Production is easy to measure. Look no further than the player’s college statistics. How many yards did the tailback gain? How many touchdowns did the receiver catch? How many sacks did the defensive end get?
Traits are also easy to measure. How fast can he run? How much can he bench? How far can he jump? The NFL has a whole event called the Scouting Combine just to answer these questions.
The difficulty is in determining how much weight to give one characteristic over the other. It becomes particularly difficult when two candidates are considered close in potential, with one candidate possessing better athletic traits and the other candidate possessing a better history of performance.
Some evaluators lean toward production. They say things like, “trust the film,” or “believe what you see.” To them, playing football is a different activity than working out in front of scouts wearing shorts and a T-shirt.
However, other evaluators, like Trent Baalke, lean toward traits. They tend to view traits as a sort of baseline required to perform at the NFL level. They tend to say things like, “Yeah, he had success, but at that weight, he won’t be able to bully NFL tackles the way he did in college.”
Baalke has a long history of valuing traits over production as noted in this article from Zachary Huber of USA TODAY Sports:
"“[Baalke] opted to take players with more potential and better traits like Aldon Smith, DeForest Buckner, and Arik Armstead instead of players with stronger production in college, which points to him likely favoring Walker.”"
As luck would have it, in each of the examples listed above, the next player taken at the same position in their respective drafts was more of a production player. The way those picks played out may give some insight as to why Baalke picks the way he does.
Why does Baalke choose value traits so much?
In 2011, Trent Baalke, then with the San Francisco 49ers, took Aldon Smith at number seven in the NFL Draft. Although listed as a linebacker, he was primarily an edge defender, and the next one to go was J.J. Watt at number 11. Here is a snippet from Smith’s draft profile on NFL Media:
"Smith has steadily climbed his way into the first round."
That’s code for a player whose stock rose based on his NFL combine workouts. Meanwhile, hysterically, JJ Watt was perceived to be a try-hard guy:
"Watt will give you everything he’s got and is certainly a first-round selection."
One might think Baalke would view picking Smith over Watt as a mistake. After all, Watt is a potential Hall of Famer, and Aldon Smith didn’t amount to much after his off-field issues spun out of control ultimately getting him thrown out of the league. But, before his career took a nosedive, Smith looked like a tremendous pick. He had 14 sacks as a situational pass rusher in his rookie year and followed that up with 19.5 sacks in year two.
Smith’s undoing had nothing to do with his abilities as a football player. So, even though Watt was excelling as well, Baalke must have been looking at this decision as a good one. In the traits versus production debate, we’ll call this one a push.
In 2015, Baalke took defensive tackle Arik Armstead with pick number 17. Here’s what NFL had to say about Armstead:
"Projection-based prospect with elite size and the traits to become a dominant run-stuffing defensive end in an odd front. Armstead has the explosiveness off the snap and in his jarring punch to gain early advantages and control offensive linemen. Armstead is a fast riser but is still very raw. He will need patience and coaching and must become a more effective pass rusher at some point."
That’s definitely a traits pick (they even say it in the bio!). The very next defensive tackle taken in that draft was Jacksonville’s own Malcom Brown by the Patriots. Here’s a quote from his bio on Bleacher Report:
"Brown will not wow anyone with athletic testing, and he can be timid at the point of attack at times."
Hmm, that doesn’t sound like a great traits guy. In fairness, there were some questions raised about his overall college production, too. But, generally speaking, he was more production than traits. Fast forward to now, and Arik Armstead has 28.5 career sacks vs. Malcom Brown’s 13.5. We can’t know for sure if Baalke even had Brown as the next defensive tackle on his board. But, if we assume he was (be careful when assuming), then undoubtedly Baalke looks back on that decision as the correct one. Score one for traits.
In 2016, Baalke took DeForest Buckner over the next defensive end taken in that draft, Shaq Lawson. Buckner had production to show along with his traits for his senior year, but was generally seen as more of a traits guy:
"Headed into this season, Buckner was a traits prospect who flashed with quickness, strength and overall athleticism, but he put those traits together in 2015"
Meanwhile, Shaq Lawson was seen as more of a production guy:
"His average athleticism and pass rush skills will likely have teams viewing him as a 3-4 edge setter or a 4-3 base end… Weaknesses: Thickly bound with very average flexibility, Average athlete for an end position."
Deforest Buckner has 45 career sacks while Shaq Lawson only has 21.5. Traits win again.
Baalke getting his way suggests a lot about the Jaguars’ inner hierarchy.
Traits don’t always win out over overproduction. Football fans in Jacksonville may remember that some people actually thought Emmitt Smith was a little slow, and at only 5’9″ and under 220 pounds, he didn’t necessarily wow people with his traits. But, he had production in bunches, and we all know how that turned out.
On top of that, the Jaguars’ recent experiences with cornerback C.J. Henderson and defensive end K’Lavon Chaisson harshly demonstrates how choosing traits overproduction can blow up in your face.
Still, Trent Baalke’s personal experience probably tells him that leaning toward traits is the right move. His history with Aldon Smith, Arik Armstead, and DeForest Buckner surely reinforces that notion in his mind.
Despite reports of head coach Doug Pederson and owner Shad Khan each wanting different guys, fans will probably never know with certainty who wanted whom inside the building. We also don’t really know which way Pederson leans on this issue, historically, since he wasn’t making the final decisions in Philadelphia.
Was there consensus inside the front offices? The public statements will assuredly confirm that everyone was on the same page. Behind the scenes… who knows? Fans should hope there was a consensus. But, as a general manager who clearly appreciates traits over production, fans can safely conclude that Baalke was fully on board with choosing Travon Walker over Aidan Hutchinson. Fans had better hope he’s right.