Occam’s Razor advocates that when presented with competing hypotheses about the same prediction, one should select the solution with the fewest assumptions. This holds true for the 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars.
There’s a common saying about what happens when we assume. There’s no need to put it here, but the gist of it is that assumptions we make today can make us look foolish tomorrow. For the Jacksonville Jaguars and their fans, some conjectures are safer than others. For example, it is pretty safe to assume Trevor Lawrence will be the opening day starter in 2022 barring injury.
It’s also reasonable to make some assumptions about what sort of scheme the Jags will be running in 2022 based on comments from first-time defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell and head coach Doug Pederson. From those comments, fans and media can cobble together a vision for the Jaguars’ defensive scheme that is more than an assumption.
"“We’re gonna base it out of a 3-4 … but it’s so multiple in nature… The base will be 3-4, but… offenses are playing so much 11 personnel that you’re going to be in a … 4-2 configuration a lot. So, it’ll be multiple in nature that way.” Doug Pederson"
With the team having run similar concepts last year, a complete overhaul can thankfully be avoided by sticking with a 3-4 hybrid, as noted by John Shipley of Jaguar Report. So, it’s a safe assumption that the Jags will employ those defensive schemes. But, that’s where the safe assumptions end.
Dangerous assumption No. 1: The Jaguars see DE Arden Key as a backup.
Strong linebacker/edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson is a bust. Sure, that’s an assumption of sorts, but not a dangerous one. So, it’s also not a stretch to think the Jaguars are looking for a new starter at outside linebacker. Most observers believe that starter will come in the upcoming NFL draft, possibly in the form of Aiden Hutchinson or Travon Walker at number one overall. Even if the Jags select an offensive tackle with the top pick as some mocks still suggest, certainly the team will land an edge rusher at the top of the second… won’t they?
Well… maybe. The Jaguars were tied for 27th in the league in sacks last year, so the reasoning for bolstering the pass rush is sound. However, the Jaguars went on an epic spending spree in free agency, including the acquisition of defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi and Arden Key. Fatukasi is known more as a run-stuffer, but some think he has interior pass-rush upside. More notably, Key blossomed last year with 6.5 sacks, earning himself a $7 million contract from the Jaguars.
$7 million is not chump change, folks. Not even in the NFL, where contracts are exploding. While his exact role has not been specified, the amount of money he will earn does not necessarily say, “rotational, situational pass rusher.” It might, but it also might say, “starter.” Look no further than Tyler Shatley’s contract for verification. Shatley signed a two-year deal for a total value of $6.8 million with only $2.35 million guaranteed. And yet, he is currently expected to start with the departure of Brandon Linder.
Key has demonstrated remarkable versatility further clouding exactly what his role with the Jaguars will be next year. But, he has played outside linebacker in his career, so it isn’t a stretch to think his primary position will be standing up as an edge defender. If that’s the case, the Jags may have reduced the need to draft an edge defender at No. 1.
Dangerous assumption No. 2: The Jaguars will keep EDGE Josh Allen.
Although Arden Key was given $7 million, the contract is only for one year. This has led many to assume that he will be something of an insurance policy; a player who, in addition to providing situational pass rush, can provide reps at outside linebacker so as not to place too much pressure on Aidan Hutchinson. Or Travon Walker. Or Kayvon Thibodeaux. Or whoever.
And that could reasonably be the case. But, don’t assume too fast. There is another possibility — one that might not sit well with many fans in Duval.
There are multiple reasons the Jacksonville Jaguars were 27th in the league in sacks last year. One reason that doesn’t get talked about much, is the lack of an alpha pass rusher. If you ask many Jags fans, they will tell you that Josh Allen is that pass rusher. But, some observers aren’t so sure.
Tony Wiggins of Locked On Jaguars Podcast doesn’t, and he has been public with his opinion.
"“They have to ask themselves, ‘Is Josh Allen worth it?’ My personal answer is [no]. I don’t think he’s a number 1. I just don’t.”"
Josh Allen led the Jaguars’ pass rush with 7.5 sacks last year. But, among players who led their teams in sacks, he is near the bottom of the league. Detroit and Philadelphia tied Jacksonville, each with an individual player who led their teams in sacks with 7.5 (Philadelphia had two players with that number), while only Buffalo (7), Baltimore (7), Indianapolis (7), Jets (6), Denver (5.5), and Atlanta (4.5) had team leaders in sacks with fewer than Josh Allen.
23 teams had a single player with more sacks than Josh Allen, many of those with multiple players exceeding Allen’s output. That would indicate that the Jaguars’ best edge defender isn’t very good compared to other teams’ best pass rushers.
Here’s a bonus assumption to avoid: Aidan Hutchinson (or one of the other edge defenders) will not be drafted to Jacksonville and be expected to simply compliment Josh Allen. Number one overall draft picks aren’t brought in to be sidekicks. They’re brought in to be superheroes. You shouldn’t have to protect them with a buffer like Arden Key, either.
Allen is entering his fourth year. Arden Key’s arrival in Jacksonville could have as much to do with pushing him as it does with providing a buffer for a rookie edge rusher.
Dangerous assumption No. 3: The Jaguars will draft for need.
Numerous mock drafts have the Jags taking some combination of edge rusher, wide receiver, offensive line, and linebacker (or occasionally tight end) in the first three rounds. That makes sense if you are drafting for needs right now. But, Doug Pederson’s arrival presents a potentially significant shift in team-building philosophy. Good organizations prioritize talent over need in the draft, and use free agency to plug holes and the draft to build for the future. Recent comments from Pederson support the notion that the Jags are subscribing to that philosophy.
"“The decisions to bring guys like Cam back are to protect your quarterback. It has nothing to do with the draft, and we want that offensive line to be solidified. We want guys up there that have been around. Cam is a big part of that and is gonna be a big part of that, so we were excited to, obviously, retain him. But, as it pertains to the draft, that’s kind of its own separate deal right now.”"
Additionally, Trent Baalke showed last year a willingness to prioritize talent over need with the selection of Travis Etienne. With then-rookie sensation James Robinson returning, running back was not a perceived need. Yet, the Jaguars wanted Etienne’s explosiveness, so they took him. Fast forward a year and Robinson is coming off a major injury. While it may have been a head-scratcher at the time, the decision to prioritize talent over need with Etienne may pay off in September.
Teams that prioritize talent over need don’t only use the draft to build next year’s team. They use the draft to build the following year’s team and beyond. So, while the talent at the top of this year’s draft happens to align with team needs, beyond the first round could be a different story.
That might be no more apparent than at number 33 overall, where many Jaguars fans are expecting the best wide receiver on the board to have his name called on behalf of the Jaguars. But, the Jaguars may feel their immediate needs have been met at wide receiver. Perhaps they see value in a later round wide receiver. Or, they may simply see a cornerback they feel has more talent. And while the selection of corner at the top of the second round could send Jaguars fans into a tailspin, what happens if Shaquille Griffin underperforms in 2022 and they decide to get out of his contract? They’ll be glad they prioritized talent over need. They may end up not taking a wide receiver at all.
So, use caution when making assumptions about what the Jaguars will do in the upcoming months. It could set you up for disappointment.