What’s Jacksonville Jaguars worst-case scenario in 2021?

There are many things to like about the Jacksonville Jaguars offseason. They hired one of the most successful head coaches in college history in Urban Meyer. They also added depth and a few playmakers in both free agency and the draft. Furthermore, it looks like they found a franchise quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, who just signed his rookie deal. All these changes should help the Jaguars play competitive football and win more games than they did last season, but what if they don’t?

Ben Linsey of Pro Football Focus recently discussed the worst and best-case scenario in 2021 for every AFC team. He thinks that at worst, the Jaguars will finish 5-12. He believes that will happen if Lawrence performs like a rookie instead of the most talented quarterback prospect in years. Also, the offensive line would have to underperform and all the secondary acquisitions fail to have the impact the team’s brass expect for this scenario to take place.

"Cam Robinson (61.7 PFF grade in 2020) and Jawaan Taylor (56.5) don’t show the signs of improvement that Jacksonville is hoping for at tackle in 2021. Meanwhile, the offseason additions of Shaquill Griffin, Rayshawn Jenkins, Tyson Campbell, and Andre Cisco in the secondary aren’t as impactful as the investment in those players would suggest."

On the other hand, Linsey believes thinks that several things need to happen for the Jaguars to compile an 11-6 record in 2021. They would need to field an above-average offense and wide receiver Laviska Shenault Jr. needs to become more than a ‘gadget’ receiver after posting a depth-of-target average of just 6.6 yards last season. Moreover, sophomore strong linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson needs to improve and the defense as a whole must perform better than they did last season.

The Jacksonville Jaguars could raise a few eyebrows in 2021.

Linsey says that the worst and best-case scenarios aren’t extremes. Instead, he notes that 80 percent of PFF’s simulations “fall somewhere between those two records”, so it’s easy to see the Jaguars winning more than just five games in 2021. Even if they won just two, they would finish the season with a better record than last year. Nevertheless, Jacksonville has the potential to win many more.

Lawrence was the team’s most significant addition this offseason but they made other moves that are also important. Marvin Jones Jr. gives the Jags a number-two wide receiver option opposite DJ Chark Jr. Meanwhile, cornerback Shaquill Griffin and safety Rayshawn Jenkins will have an immediate impact in the secondary. Moreover, Urban Meyer is making sure all returning players everything they need to perform at a higher level. Long-time contributors such as linebacker Myles Jack and center Brandon Linder should play key roles in helping the organization win more games.

The Jaguars’ biggest question mark in 2021 may be the offensive line. They expect left tackle Cam Robinson and right tackle Jawaan Taylor to improve after struggling last season. Offensive line coach George Warhop says that both have made strides this offseason but they also need to show more consistency.  If they put their struggles behind, the chances of the Jags having an above-average offense will increase considerably.

Looking at all the moves the Jacksonville Jaguars and all their AFC South rivals have made throughout the year, an 8-9 record in 2021 isn’t unrealistic. In fact, they could surprise a few teams and win a few games they shouldn’t.