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How good do the Jacksonville Jaguars need to be to win the AFC South?

By Luke Sims

Dec 6, 2015; Nashville, TN, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Allen Robinson (15) celebrates by spinning the football in the end zone after scoring touchdown against the Tennessee Titans during the second half at Nissan Stadium. Tennessee won 42-39. Mandatory Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 6, 2015; Nashville, TN, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Allen Robinson (15) celebrates by spinning the football in the end zone after scoring touchdown against the Tennessee Titans during the second half at Nissan Stadium. Tennessee won 42-39. Mandatory Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Jacksonville Jaguars have yet to win a single AFC South title, but 2017 could be the year to get it done. How many wins will that take?

The Houston Texans continue to win the AFC South with mediocre records. Three straight 9-7 campaigns have given them first place in back-to-back seasons and second place in 2014. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars have slipped into the cellar compared to mediocre finishes by the Tennessee Titans (9-7) and Indianapolis Colts (8-8).

The good news? The AFC South is as open as ever.

Over at NFL.com, Conor Orr recently ranked the divisions by how close they could be. The AFC South nabbed second place behind the AFC West. Here’s what Orr had to say:

"Unlike in the AFC West, I don’t see a legitimate Super Bowl contender in this division, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be thrilling to follow. The division has budding stars — Marcus Mariota, Jalen Ramsey, Jadeveon Clowney — alongside a bedrock of accomplished stars like Andrew Luck and J.J. Watt. A few rookies, like Leonard Fournette and Deshaun Watson, have the capability to change the power structure for the long term. The Texans and Colts end the season facing off against one another, while the Jaguars and Titans also have a campaign-ending date. How good are the odds that one of these games decides the division?"

Interestingly, Orr also noted that three teams in the AFC South have the potential to notch 10 wins in 2017. The Texans were already incredibly close the last three seasons, but the AFC South hasn’t fielded a 10-win unit since 2014’s 11-5 Colts. Will nine wins be enough to secure the division once again?

It’s an important question as we gauge expectations during the offseason. The Jags need to improve by seven wins to get to double digits – a feat they have not done since 2007’s 11-5 campaign. If the other three teams in the division are truly capable of reaching 10+ wins in 2017, the Jags may still be on the outside looking in. Head coach Doug Marrone – who has never coached a 10-win team – knows that the team has a long way to go.

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Fortunately, the Jags may have the brain trust and talent to do it. Unfortunately, the track record isn’t so great. Marrone has never had 10 wins in a season and the last time executive vice president Tom Coughlin got to 10 wins was back in 2010.

If that truly is the mark the Jaguars need to aim for, this will be nearly new territory for the team. It will be a level of success that the fan base has not been accustomed to in a decade.

So, as we take long-range looks at the next season’s playoffs, it may not be the division title that the Jags nab to get in. Instead, it may be a wild card berth or something else that the team will be forced to aim for. That, at 8-8 or 9-7 (both massive improvements) may yet be possible.

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