Offseason Analysis – Justin Blackmon
By Daniel Lago
After taking a look at Blaine Gabbert’s performance in 2012, a natural sequel would be to see how his pass catchers performed. A perfect place to start is the Jaguars’ first round pick in 2012 – Justin Blackmon.
Blackmon managed to stay out of trouble during the 2012 season, but found himself suspended for the first 4 games of 2013 for substance abuse. USA Today Sports
After trading up in the draft to select Blackmon with the fifth overall pick, Gene Smith and the rest of the front office were less than thrilled to see their first round pick get a DUI after the draft… before he had signed his contract. After basically giving away all his leverage in contract negotiations (even though there are very few anymore with the new collective bargaining agreement) Blackmon pledged to focus on football and stay out of trouble.
After struggling early in the season to make an impact, Blackmon started catching on about midway through the season, particularly after his breakout game against Houston.
Similar to my analysis with Gabbert, I decided to dissect one statistic that I feel is a good indicator of Blackmon’s progress throughout the season – yards per target.
Blackmon 2012 Yards per Target
Week
Targets
Yards
Yds/Tgts
Min
6
24
4
Hou
0
0
0
Ind
5
7
1.4
Cin
10
48
4.8
Chi
8
40
5
Oak
4
7
1.75
GB
8
67
8.375
Det
9
32
3.555556
Ind
5
25
5
Hou
14
236
16.85714
Ten
6
62
10.33333
Buf
6
9
1.5
NYJ
12
57
4.75
Mia
11
93
8.454545
NE
12
79
6.583333
Ten
13
79
6.076923
Formulating a regression line would show that Blackmon as a whole improved throughout the season, despite the wild fluctuations from game to game especially early on. He started out poorly, but he built on a solid performance against Green Bay and really came on after Henne took over for Gabbert. Also exciting was his ability to start all 16 games in his rookie season. His game against Houston showed his ability to make tough catches and gain extra yards after the catch. While he’ll never be an explosive threat to stretch the field, Blackmon looks like he can entrench himself as a reliable target for Blaine Gabbert or whoever is throwing him the ball for years to come.
– Daniel Lago
*Statistics from ESPN.com
Yell at me on Twitter @dlago89