Mock Drafts – Don’t Freak Out
By Daniel Lago
It’s that time of year again. It seems Jaguar fans have been looking forward to the draft far too early the last few years. Part of that was some delusional excitement about Gene Smith’s drafting ability (myself a victim of that delusion) and the other part was the team’s inability to play a meaningful game late in the season.
Look at him. What did we really expect? Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports
Look at him. What did we really expect?
With draft talk come mock drafts. With mock drafts come outrage. Particularly if you have players you really don’t want but consistently get mocked to your team in the first round. Derrick Morgan, Ryan Kerrigan, and Riley Reiff are all players over the last three years that would really rub me the wrong way every time I saw a talking head – Kiper or McShay mainly – unimaginatively send them to the Jags.
The two victims of this year’s “boring” Jaguars pick are Bjoern Werner and Damontre Moore. Most recently, Kiper mocked Moore to the Jags while McShay chose Werner. While both players are considered top ten prospects, it just seems too damn easy and downright lazy to choose them for the Jaguars. I’m no scout, but give me Barkevious Mingo or Ziggy Ansah over those two. Hell, if Geno Smith is at two take him.
Please be at 2. Please be at 2… Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Please be at 2. Please be at 2…
If you’re in the same boat as me and believe in flawed cause-and-effect, take solace in this – the Jaguars will almost assuredly NOT pick Damontre Moore or Bjoern Werner. Let’s take a look at the development of Kiper and McShay’s mock drafts over the last three years.
| 2010 Mock Drafts | |||||
| Version | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Todd McShay | Bruce Carter OLB, N. Carolina | Derrick Morgan DE, Ga Tech | Earl Thomas S, Texas | Earl Thomas S, Texas | C.J. Spiller RB, Clemson |
| Mel Kiper | Jason Pierre-Paul DE, S. Florida | Derrick Morgan DE, Ga Tech | Derrick Morgan DE, Ga Tech | C.J. Spiller RB, Clemson | C.J. Spiller RB, Clemson |
| 2011 Mock Drafts | |||||
| Version | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Todd McShay | Ryan Mallet QB, Arkansas | Ryan Mallet QB, Arkansas | Adrian Clyborn DE, Iowa | Aldon Smith DE, Missouri | Ryan Kerrigan DE, Purdue |
| Mel Kiper | Adrian Clyborn DE, Iowa | Aldon Smith DE, Missouri | Aldon Smith DE, Missouri | Aldon Smith DE, Missouri | Ryan Kerrigan DE, Purdue |
| 2012 Mock Drafts | |||||
| Version | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Todd McShay | Quinton Coples DE, N. Carolina | Quinton Coples DE, N. Carolina | Melvin Ingram DE, S. Carolina | Riley Reiff OT, Iowa | Melvin Ingram DE, S. Carolina |
| Mel Kiper | Quinton Coples DE, N. Carolina | Quinton Coples DE, N. Carolina | Quinton Coples DE, N. Carolina | Melvin Ingram DE, S. Carolina | Fletcher Cox DT, Miss. St. |
So instead of getting frustrated over picks that are a virtual certainty to not occur, focus more on mock drafts done by people closer and more in-tune with the Jaguars situation. Our own Luke and Jason pick players that match Gus Bradley’s new system and philosophy better than Moore and Werner. Over the last three years, despite having at least 5 shots at making the pick, Kiper and McShay have not correctly mocked a player to the Jaguars. Granted, picks later in the first round are hard to project, especially with trades and having to deal with Gene Smith’s assessment of “value,” but both of these draft experts basically honed in on a need the Jaguars had and picked whoever they thought was the best player – not the player who fit the system the best.
As for my mock draft, I’ll post that comedic masterpiece sometime after the combine.
– Daniel Lago