Understanding Gene Coding: The DNA of a GM Gene Draft Pick

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Editor’s note: This is another article by our GM Gene whisperer/draftnik expert, Jason Love. He is going to be a true asset to us as we breakdown the offseason so please share your thoughts in the comments section!


Source: geneticpeople.com

The 2011 NFL draft is almost upon us and the Jags are sitting pretty with a plethora of picks. Currently, the Jags have picks in the middle of the first six rounds, the 24th pick of the 4th round (from New Orleans), a conditional 7th rounder from Green Bay for Anthony Smith, and an unknown conditional pick for Reggie Nelson (who actually did alright this year) from Cincinnati. The Jags will not receive any supplemental picks this year due to big Free Agency signings. (Here’s a link to a website with all of this year’s draft picks). We know GM Gene makes the most of every pick, so what patterns can we use to predict how Gene will pick in 2011?

GM Gene has shown a propensity in the last two years to draft certain players that fit a certain mold, yet many people have not recognized the pattern. Let’s look at the last two drafts. In 2009 GM Gene drafted Offensive Tackle, Offensive Tackle, Defensive Tackle, Cornerback, Wide Receiver, Wide Receiver, Tight End, Running Back, Wide Receiver. In 2010 he drafted, Defensive Tackle, Defensive Tackle, Defensive End, Defensive End, Running Back/Returner, and Cornerback/Returner. That’s seven linemen, all drafted before skill-position players, in both years’ drafts. So the first criterion is glaringly obvious, GM Gene loves big men (to play for his teams, that is). GM Gene also is not scared of drafting multiple players for a single position.

GM Gene also loves accolades: All-Conference, All-America, All-Anything, you got it, he loves it. Being a consistent starter and a senior also help in determining who the Jags might select. GM Gene also loves hard working, blue collar, high motor guys that don’t quit, even when signing FA’s. Look at last year – Alualu and Kampman are prime examples. The most obvious thing to look for is the Jaguars’ love for high character guys. If you have a run-in with the law or get disciplined by your school, GM Gene will probably take you off of his Big Board. Finally, one of the most overlooked, yet most important, criteria is whether or not the player has been a team captain. GM Gene LOVES team captains. These men are self-motivated, leaders, hard workers, and they stay out of trouble. They embody the player type that GM Gene loves to draft.

Let’s look at prior drafts and see how this analysis stacks up.

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  • zoltanfrombudapest

    Really good draft summary Jason! Thank you!

  • http://bigcatcountry.com Collin

    Sick title… Got me to read to story.

    So, having seen your breakdown of the type of player… give me a offensive and defensive lineman (big men), whom you would expect to be on the Jaguars radar.

    also, given the state of our secondary, do you think GM Gene will put an added premium on a CB, maybe even (gasp) reaching for one (although we all know they’d never admit it, hah!)

    -Collin

    • thehof

      Collin, glad you enjoyed it. I should have noted that this is the first in a series of articles leading up to the draft. Look for much more out of Jason in the coming weeks.

  • Rhett

    1. Ryan Kerrigan(Big guy position, if that counts :)m high motor, good accolades, good player, good leader, senior captain, etc.)<—-GENE PICK
    2. Andy Dalton(NEEED)
    3. Nate Irving(Could be considered a reach, but he fits the criteria)
    4. Tim Barnes(Big guy, good motor senior captain, fits criteria also)

    • Jason

      Kerrigan would fit, Dalton would probably be too high in the 2nd round. Same with Irving in the 3rd. Don’t know much on Barnes yet. I’ll be following up this article with players at each position that I can find.

      • thehof

        If Gene took Alualu in the 1st, mortgaged a future 2nd for Derek Cox, and picked the unknown Terrance Knighton the pick after – I’d say he’ll take his guys whenever he wants them.

        • Jason

          Hahahahaha, you got me there.

  • Sean

    I don’t really get a chance to follow the young players as much as some of you so I really appreciate the time you all put into this. I look forward to reading what players fit this description, knowing of course that GM Gene is GM Gene and will probably throw everyone for a loop at some point.

  • Keenan

    I honeestly believe that when he finishes both lines, that philosophy will have to altered a bit. Because of the lack of talent on the lines, the Jags have missed out on some talented players. The main player that comes to mind is S Earl Thomas that was drafted by Seattle with pick 14 of the 2010 draft. I’m very happy Tyson is a Jaguar, but Thomas in our secondary would’ve been nice too.

    • Jason

      I agree. My personal philosophy is finish the lines and everyone plays better. You can’t throw the ball if you don’t have time. You can’t run the ball if you can’t open holes. You can’t stop the pass if the QB gets to act like its a skeleton drill with no rush against him. You can’t stop the run if your Dlinemen get blocked out of the play and blockers get downfield and lay a hat on secondary players.

      BIG MEN are the key to everything. The Giants defense is a good example of a great DL dominating.

  • Chris

    Another trend to follow is that our scouts in the Virginia area are doing wonders. Out of the 15 players drafted 4 are from schools in the VA area…and all are from different schools in Virginia.

    One more that may take some consideration is the Pac-10. We’ve only drafted 3 players from the conference, but they’ve been home-runs so far. Eben Britton, Mike Thomas, and Tyson Alualu. Seeing the production from those players could make us look at the conference a little deeper.

    I really liked the Captain take on the players. That was something I didn’t see. Good job, sir.

    Hopefully this means Ryan Kerrigan will be the pick for us.

    • Jason

      I like the idea of the some scouts being better than others. Perhaps a personnel research day is needed for me. I don’t like the idea of conferences though. I think it probably comes back to the idea of having a really good scout in that area.

      Strangely enough though, I think I’m starting to trend away from Kerrigan. I don’t know why, I liked him before and he matches all the criteria I lay out, but for some reason his reviews have been kinda lackluster during the All-Star season.

      I think we’ll see a dramatic shift in talent once the combine happens. Think Jimmy Smith, CB.

  • Joe

    After watching the senior bowl, the Jags can fill a lot of needs this draft. Phil Taylor the tackle from Baylor was dominant. He would pair well with Knighton and return us back to the Stroud and Henderson days. Alualu could play DE which he used to play in college. Cornerbacks Burney (UNC), Van Dyke (Miami), and Sherman (Stanford) seem to be a great value in the later rounds. Mathis could move to safety if we solidify the corners. I’m no expert but i saw a ton of defensive talent out there.

    • Jason

      Here’s the problem. Taylor has character concerns and a wrap sheet. Alualu played DE in a 3-4 scheme, which is different than end in a 4-3 scheme. Don’t know much about the corners as I haven’t got a concensus feeling about them yet, but Mathis to FS may not be a good idea TBH. When you think about it, yes FS has to be a ballhawk, but also, usually, the FS is the last man of the defense. Mathis can’t tackle. Do we really want him to be that last line of defense?

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