Back in 2021, Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence endured a challenging first season that would make any highly touted passer shake their head in disapproval. But Lawrence's dismal performance is about to be a distant memory, as he's set to blaze a trail to an MVP-worthy season that will leave fans in awe.
While Lawrence may have been a later arrival to the ranks of the league's top quarterbacks, his potential is undeniable and one area in which he should improve considerably is his completion percentage. Last season, he showcased promise, completing 66.3 percent of his passes.
Drawing comparisons to the legendary Patrick Mahomes, who boasts a career 66.3 percent completion percentage, Lawrence's trajectory is headed for greatness. Over his first two years, the former Clemson Tiger averaged a solid 62.9 completion percentage. Not only maintaining but elevating that efficiency could enter the MVP conversation and become a serious contender for the prestigious title.
The Jaguars skilled-position players will help Trevor Lawrence's candidacy
One area the Jaguars must improve to help Lawrence increase his completion rate is the drops department, where they ranked amongst the league's worst. Working in their favor is the acquisition of the sure-handed Calvin Ridley. A reliable pass catcher, Ridley will bolster Lawrence's numbers and turn potential incompletions into game-changing gains.
Ridley isn't the only playmaker at Lawrence's disposal though. He'll be joining Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram, all of whom have had career years in their first year of the Doug Pederson era. The fact that they will be entering Year 2 in the same offense should also help them reduce their number of drops.
Trevor Lawrence will come in clutch for the Jaguars in 2023
Trevor Lawrence's yardage projections are firmly set in the neighborhood of 4,000 yards. Interestingly, this aligns well with past MVP-winning quarterbacks who typically achieved yardage numbers ranging from 3,500 to about 4,200 yards. As Lawrence gears up to showcase his talent on the field, there's a sense of anticipation that he could be on track for a standout season putting him in contention for the league's most coveted individual award.
However, as history has shown, winning when the odds are stacked against you is what garners recognition in MVP conversations. It's about making comebacks when the team is down, and last season, Jacksonville demonstrated this resilience on multiple occasions. With Lawrence leading the charge, the Jags mounted impressive comebacks that caught the attention of fans and analysts alike.
For years, the Jaguars have longed for a quarterback who can be relied upon to make crucial plays and bring the team back from seemingly insurmountable deficits. Lawrence has the potential to fulfill this role, provided he can minimize interceptions during games.
One significant showcase of his talent was during the playoffs, where Lawrence faced a formidable challenge from the Chargers. Despite the adversity, he exhibited composure and grit, proving he has what it takes to be an MVP candidate.
Speaking of MVP candidates, one essential aspect is a quarterback's touchdown-to-interception ratio. Typically, MVP contenders have an average of 25 to 30 touchdowns with 10 to 15 interceptions. Lawrence's impressive stats from last year — 25 touchdowns with only eight interceptions — are promising, and he seems primed to build upon this foundation.
The Jaguars defense will assist in Trevor Lawrence 2023 MVP candidacy
But Lawrence's potential MVP candidacy doesn't rest solely on his individual performance. The development of Jacksonville's defense, particularly in generating takeaways, could play a pivotal role. Creating more offensive possessions for the Jaguars would undoubtedly raise Lawrence's opportunities to shine and lead his team to victory.
With all the pieces in place, Lawrence is poised to ascend from his respectable seventh-place finish in the previous MVP voting to securing the ultimate honor. To prove his worthiness as the most valuable player in the whole NFL, he will bring his A-game in crucial matchups. None are more significant than facing off against perennial contenders like the Chiefs, Bengals, and Bills. In these high-stakes showdowns, true MVPs emerge and etch their names in NFL history.
As the 2023 season approaches, all eyes will be on Trevor Lawrence as he embarks on his journey to potential MVP glory. With a potent blend of talent, determination, and the will to overcome, he will leave an indelible mark on the league and solidify his place among football's elite. It won't be easy though.
The AFC is full of talented players vying for their place in the MVP conversation — Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow — and the Jags will face many of them in primetime. If they come out on top, Lawrence's candidacy will get a boost.
I predict that Trevor Lawrence will be getting ample attempts from a much-improved defense. The completion percentage will be 67.5. He will also finish the season with 4,300 yards passing with 30 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. This will allow him to meet the average MVP threshold and win the MVP.