Top 5 worst first-round draft picks of the Jacksonville Jaguars in the last 20 years

The NFL draft has always been a bit of a sore subject for the fans of the Jacksonville Jaguars due to the amount of flops they've had despite the fact that they've picked in the top 10 of the draft 20 times in the franchise’s 27 years. They have also had eight top-five picks in just the last ten years.

Simply, you can't hit that level of failure in NFL without serious misses in the draft. It is a disturbing and dubious draft history resulting from an inept front office. I mean, even a broken clock is right twice a day. These failures rest solely on the shoulders of former general managers, Gene Smith, David Caldwell

Trent Baalke has only been the general manager for two years and has used the number one overall picks on Trevor Lawrence and Travon Walker in the last two drafts. The former seems to be a rare successful pick, and it's too early for the latter to tell, so Balke gets a reprieve from this list for now.

With that being said, let's revisit the top five worst first-round draft picks of the Jacksonville Jaguars in the last 20 years and the players that could have changed the organization's fate. 

No. 5 top worst 1st-round pick in Jacksonville Jaguars since 2000: Taven Bryan

In 2017 the Jaguars had a surprisingly successful year, with a lights-out defense led by second-round pick Myles Jack. As a result, the team barely missed the Super Bowl, and I say barely because we all know Jack was not down. 

This success had the Jaguars drafting outside the top ten for the first time in a decade. No worries, though, David Caldwell would botch this pick anyway. With the 29th pick in the 2018 draft, the Jags selected the University of Florida defensive tackle, Taven Bryan.

Bryan played four seasons for the Jaguars, occasionally seeing a snap, before joining the Cleveland Browns in 2021 and signing with AFC South rival Indianapolis Colts earlier this year. He totaled 61 tackles and 8.5 sacks for the Jaguars in four seasons. Bryan's approximate value (AV) assigned by pro football reference was 17. 

Then with the 32nd pick via a trade with the New England Patriots, the Baltimore Ravens selected Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson, who has vaulted the Ravens to a perennial playoff team, an MVP, and 101 touchdowns over the last five years.

Jackson scored a total of 140 rushing and passing touchdowns in four years. Compare that to the Jaguars' six quarterbacks only throwing 83 touchdowns in that span. Currently, Lamar Jackson has an AV of 74, making it a -57 AV for Caldwell's pick. 

No. 4 top worst 1st-round pick in Jacksonville Jaguars since 2000: CJ Henderson

The Jaguars were back in the top ten in 2020, picking at the No. 9 spot. They had quite a few needs to address with their two first-round picks; Cornerback, offensive line, and wide receiver were their focal point that year. 

With the No. 9 selection in the first round of the 2020 NFL draft, David Caldwell and the Jags pick University of Florida cornerback Christopher C.J. Henderson. 

Henderson appeared in ten games for the Jaguars before being traded to the Carolina Panthers for tight end Dan Arnold and a third-round pick in 2022. In his one-and-a-half season, Henderson had one interception and 36 tackles. He was constantly out of position on plays and allowed many receptions to opposing wide receivers. He left the Jaguars with an AV of 4. 

The Jaguars used their second pick in the first round in 2020 to fortify their defensive line. With the 20th pick, they selected Louisiana State University defensive end K'Lavon Chaisson. Chaisson is in the final year of his rookie contract and has been a marginal role player for the Jaguars. In his three years so far, he has an AV of 7.

The Jaguars needed to build their offensive line and add a playmaking wide receiver in that draft. Tristan Wirf was blazing up draft boards in 2020 after a video of his extreme athleticism went viral. He did a standing broad jump, vaulting his six-foot-five 320 lb frame four feet out of a swimming pool. Check it out here in the video.

Wirf started all 46 games for the Buccaneers since being drafted, was an all-conference tackle in 2021 and 2022, and won a Super Bowl. He has an AV of 37 in three years in the league. 

Later that draft, a wider receiver named Tee Higgins out of Clemson checked all the boxes the Jaguars were looking for. They passed on him and took Chaisson instead. Higgins was drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals, where he has pulled in 215 catches for over 3000 yards for an AV of 27. Watch this highlight from his college days at Clemson with Trevor Lawrence.

Imagine what Lawrence could have done last year with Wirf protecting his blindside and reuniting with his star Clemson receiver in the NFL. It could have been magic. If you are keeping score, that's another -53 for Caldwell, bringing his total on our list to -110 AV in two years.

No. 3 top worst 1st-round pick in Jacksonville Jaguars since 2000: Dante Fowler Jr.

In 2015, Jacksonville was coming off another losing season, going 3-13 under coach Gus Bradly. Their receiving core was disappointing, totaling only 15 touchdowns, and their star rookie Marquise Lee spent most of his first year injured. As a result, they were in need of a solid wide receiver, and the 2015 draft was loaded with talent. 

Instead of addressing that need to give freshly drafted quarterback Blake Bortles a reliable weapon, the Jags went a different route. With the third pick in the 2015 NFL draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars select the University of Florida EDGE Dante Fowler Jr. Another Gator, I see a pattern forming on this list. 

Fowler injured his hamstring a few weeks after being drafted, then proceeded to spend three unproductive seasons in Jacksonville before being traded to the Los Angeles Rams for a third-round pick. Fowler piled up 14 sacks in his three seasons with the Jags and had a total AV of 6. 

With the following pick, the then-Oakland Raiders used the No. 4 overall selection on Alabama star wide receiver Amari Cooper. Cooper immediately impacted the Raiders and was a solid weapon for a young and developing Derek Carr. He racked up 72 catches for over 1000 yards in his rookie campaign. Cooper finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting. This could have been the Jaguars, Cooper was always gonna be good.

He went on to amass 8200 yards and 55 touchdowns in his eight seasons and is currently headlining the Browns' receiving corps. Cooper's approximate value from the 2015 draft is 69. That adds another -63 for GM David Caldwell. 

Honorable mention to David Caldwell's first NFL draft in 2013. Caldwell and the Jags drafted Texas A&M tackle Luke Joeckel with the second overall pick. The Philadelphia Eagles have laughed their way to two Super Bowls since they took tackle Lane Johnson two picks later. That's another -61 AV and potential HOF miss for Caldwell. 

No. 2 top worst 1st-round pick in Jacksonville Jaguars since 2000: Blane Gabbert

We are now getting into sure-thing Hall-of-Fame misses at positions the Jaguars needed and passed on to draft another epic dud. This time the Jaguars overdrafted a quarterback who was on no one's top ten list. 

In 2011 the Jags shocked the NFL and used the No. 10 overall pick to draft Missouri quarterback Blane Gabbert. Gabbert led the Jaguars for three seasons, starting 27 games with a record of 5-22. He is single-handedly responsible for the next three years' top 10 picks. Gabbert's AV with the Jaguars is an atrocious eight. 

Gabbert has spent the rest of his career as a traveling backup, starting games for San Francisco, the Tennessee Titans, the Arizona Cardinals, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and more recently, the Kansas City Chiefs. One game in Gabbert's rookie year, he was sacked twice by the man the Jaguars passed up on to draft him. 

The following pick in the 2011 draft, AFC South rival Houston Texans take the decades most feared defensive lineman, Wisconsin Badger Justin James Watt. The Milkman terrorized the Jacksonville Jaguars for a decade, destroying Jags quarterbacks twice a year as a division rival. 

Watt haunted the Jaguars for not drafting him. In 17 games vs. the Jags, Watt had 56 solo tackles, 15 assists, 17 sacks, and four fumble recoveries. He is a sure-fire first-ballot Hall-of-Famer bound for Canton, Ohio. He probably already has his bust made and ready to go. 

Watt retired in 2022 after ten seasons with 562 tackles, 111 sacks, two interceptions, three receiving touchdowns, and a Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year award. He finished his career with an AV of 131. 

Gene Smith is now on the board with a gigantic botched draft, scorning a -123 in one pick. You think that would be the biggest blunder of Gene Smith's stint as the Jaguars' general manager, but no, he's done worse. 

No. 1 top worst 1st-round pick in Jacksonville Jaguars since 2000: Matt Jones

It's hard to imagine a worse draft outcome than the Jaguar's blunder in 2012, but here we are at the No. 1 spot on the all-time worst first-round picks by the Jaguars in the last 20 years. 

The 2002 draft had four quarterbacks selected in the first round. One Heisman finalist passer was in the mix for the Jaguars but as a wide receiver. This plan seemed suspect from the get-go. 

With the 21st puck in 2005, the Jags selected Arkansas quarterback Matt Jones to play wide receiver. Jaguar's fans did not respond well to this idea, and Jones had no experience as a receiver in college. The Jaguars were so set on making a splash in the draft they completely wasted a draft pick, as there was no need for a former quarterback to join the wide receiver room. 

Jones was Athletic and 6-foot-6 but was lackluster and only mildly productive. Nevertheless, in four years in the NFL, Jones piled up 2,100 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns in a short-lived and shameful career in Jacksonville. He was cut from the team after his second violation of the NFL's substance abuse policy and a parole violation. Jones had an AV of 23 by the time he was let go.

As fate would have it, just two picks later, a projected top quarterback was tumbling down the draft board for unknown reasons and was selected. A draft splash was made when the Green Bay Packers selected California quarterback Aaron Rodgers to back up the legendary Brett Farve. 

After a few seasons on the bench, Rodgers would get his shot under center, and a Hall-of-Fame career was launched. Rodgers has already been fitted for his gold blazer despite just being traded to the Jets for the 2023 season. The 39-year-old Rodgers has amassed 59,000 yards and 475 touchdowns and still counting. This guy is a franchise maker, just watch him in action.

Rodgers has faced the Jaguars just four times in his career with a 96.8 rating, 988 yards, and seven touchdowns. It's safe to say the following 16 top ten picks of the Jaguars could have been avoided had the front office been astute and drafted the four-time NFL MVP. The entire history of the Jaguars would be vastly different, and they would probably have one of the NFL's highest winning percentages as a franchise. 

Rodgers has an AV of 238, subtract the abysmal 23 of Jones, and that is a measurable -215 point AV miss from the 2005 draft. It is making me ill to think of what could have been, Rodgers getting added to the pride of Jacksonville after a Hall-of-Fame career for the Jags. 

Now here we are, heading into the 2023 draft. While it's hard to let go of the disasters of the past, the future is bright. What happened has happened for a reason and couldn't have happened any other way. Finally, it all led to this, and we got Trevor Lawrence, the prince that was promised.