The Jacksonville Jaguars have bounced back nicely after falling to the San Francisco 49ers, winning the past two games. They're now 8-3 and find themselves in thick for the No. 1 postseason seed in the AFC. While the Jags will be facing tough competition to clinch the top seed and a playoff BYE, it's doable.
Teams such as the Kansas City Chiefs, and Baltimore Ravens are also in the race for the No. 1 spot in the AFC, so the margin for error will be slim. With that in mind, here's a look at the rest of the Jaguars schedule and a prediction for each of their last six games.
Week 13 vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Win
Had Joe Burrow been available for this bout, this would arguably be the most exciting game of the week, a duel of two young gunslingers: Burrow, and Trevor Lawrence. However, the Bengals' star quarterback is out for the year with a wrist injury and the Jacksonville Jaguars will face journeyman Jake Browning in his place.
That said, this is the kind of trap game the Jags must avoid falling prey to. Although there's a significant dropoff from Burrow — one of the three best quarterbacks in the league — to Browning, the defense must still account for Ja'Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, and Tee Higgins, who's been out for nearly a month with a hamstring injury but plans to play Sunday.
Also, the Jags must prepare for running back Joe Mixon, so this won't be precisely a walk in the park. On the bright side, they're a much better team (and healthy) on paper. If that wasn't enough, the contest will be held at EverBank Stadium, so they have no excuse for losing this one.
Week 14 @ Cleveland Browns: Win
This matchup looked pretty appealing a month ago before Deshaun Watson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. At the time, the former Pro Bowler was beginning to hit his stride. Moreover, their defense was playing at a historic pace, giving up the third-fewest total yards in the NFL since 1970.
With Watson out for the year, the Browns have rolled with rookie Dorian Thompson-Rorbinson behind center. The former UCLA Bruin has done enough to help Cleveland go 1-1 the past two weeks, going 38-of-72 for 299 yards with one touchdown and one interception. However, they've signed Joe Flacco (yes, that Joe Flacco) as insurance, in case Thompson-Robinson either goes down or plays poorly.
Now, expecting Flacco to lead the Browns to the Super Bowl would be unrealistic. It's been a while since he was a starting-caliber passer and the only way the Jaguars should worry about him is if they traveled back in time to the 2022 playoffs to face peak Flacco. Now, he's nothing more than a veteran whose best days are behind him.
Having said that, Jacksonville must approach this game like the Bengals one. They cannot underestimate an opponent because they're going against a 'lesser team.' In fact, the Browns could be hard to take down. They haven't let injuries to Deshaun Watson, running back Nick Chubb, offensive tackles Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills Jr., and safety Rodney McLeod derail their season yet.
Expect them to exchange blows with the Jaguars, and give them their all. But despite their drive, this writers sees them falling to Jacksonville.
Week 15 vs. Baltimore Ravens: Loss
This is where things get interesting for Jacksonville. The Baltimore Ravens are the best team remaining in their schedule. They should be a good litmus test of where the Jaguars stand heading into the postseason. Having beaten the Texans and Titans in back-to-back weeks, they're 4-1 in the division with a chance of going 5-1 if they beat Tennessee in the finale.
Going back to the Ravens, the Jaguars have done a good job of taking down opponents they're supposed to beat. However, they've struggled against the heavyweights on their schedule this season: The Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers. They had no answers for defensive tackle Chris Jones and the offense, marred by errors, couldn't move the ball. Things went even worse against the Niners.
The Jaguars were crushed at home in that game. Their defense couldn't stop Christian McCaffrey or tight end George Kittle. To add insult to injury, Brock Purdy wasn't playing well heading into the bout but had a bounce-back game against the Jags... in Jacksonville.
While the Jaguars have also rebounded from the beatdown San Francisco gave them, they need to prove they can go toe-to-toe with the best team in the AFC, the Baltimore Ravens. Heading into Week 13, they hold the No. 1 seed in the conference and have a one-game lead over Jacksonville. They'll need to take them down if they want to have a shot at catching up with them in the race for a playoff BYE.
The Ravens are much better than they were last year when they lost to the Jaguars. With Todd Monken now overseeing the offense, Lamar Jackson is enjoying a career revival. On top of that, Baltimore's defense is one of the top 3 in most meaningful metrics this season, so it's hard to see the Jaguars getting the win. Loss, a close one but a loss nonetheless.
Week 17 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Win
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers got off to a hot start in 2023, winning three of their first four games. But then, the losses began to pile up and they've managed to muster one victory since Week 5. That's not the sign of a good team. Maybe their opponents were still finding their footing when they beat them, or they're simply not that good, which seems like the most reasonable explanation. Bake Mayfield, for his part, has put up solid stats, completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 2,588 yards with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
By all accounts, those are good numbers. However, a closer look shows that he's thrown a lot in an effort to catch up because Tampa Bay often finds itself trailing. That's probably why you haven't heard about Mayfield's candidacy for the 2023 NFL MVP. Leaving the former No. 1 overall pick, it looks like the Bucs still haven't fully recovered from the Tom Brady era.
Many of the players who were on the roster when the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl (Chris Godwin, Lavonte David, Shaquil Barrett) are still around. However, they haven't been nearly as productive. It's fair to say that the luster is gone. Mayfield was supposed to provide a spark and he kind of has but can solely expect a quarterback to single-handedly lift a franchise, unless that quarterback is Brady and comes with tight end Rob Gronkowski.
But as subpar as the Bucs currently are, they still have a shot at making the playoffs by virtue of playing in a weak AFC South. Right now, the leaders of the house are the lowly New Orleans Saints, who aren't much better than the Atlanta Falcons or the Carolina Panthers. The Jaguars already beat the former and are set to face the latter in Week 17.
This is to say that the Buccaneers will beat the Panthers and Falcons but they'll fall to Jacksonville.
Week 17 vs. Carolina Panthers: Win
Maybe, just maybe the Carolina Panthers' dreadful schedule release video should've been a sign of things to come. Without a doubt, they're the worst team in the league, and that's a pretty difficult distinction to achieve. Then again, they've put on a lot of effort to earn that dubious distinction. Following the dismissal of Ron Rivera in 2019, they brought in Matt Rhule the following year to right the ship.
The issue is that Rhule was arguably worse than Rivera and after nearly three seasons of minimal success, he was given the boot. To replace him, the Panthers hired Frank Reich earlier this year but he's already been shown the door too, less than one year after getting the job. Heck, Urban Meyer (remember him?) lasted more than him at the helm, that's how bad things are in Carolina right now.
The common denominator has been owner David Tepper, who's earned a reputation for meddling in football operations and not letting his coaches or player personnel do their respective jobs. Tepper recently met with the media and said that he's patient when it comes to processes but his track record of hiring head coaches says otherwise. As a matter of fact, the Panthers have had six head coaches, counting full and part-time since 2019. Not even the Jags were that bad in the 2010s. Yikes!
Furthermore, the Panthers have become someone of a destination for former Jaguars. Besides trading for 2020 draftees Laviska Shenault and C.J. Henderson, they signed wide receiver D.J. Chark this past offseason and just added cornerback Shaquill Griffin after being released by the Houston Texans.
The good news is that the 2023 season is close to an end. That not may be much of a consolation prize but there's not much left for the Panthers the next six weeks.
Week 18 @ Tennessee Titans: Win
At this point of the 2022 season, the Jaguars were close to finalizing their turnaround. They just had one more hurdle to clear: Beat the Tennesee Titans. Win the divison and qualify for the playoffs. Lose and you go home empty-handed. It wasn't easy, the Titans took it to the wire and Jacksonville needed outside linebacker Josh Allen to return a lost fumble for a touchdown to seal the deal. The Jags are once again set to face Tennessee in Week 18, and this had the making of a great divisional game to close the year.
Having lost seven straight games to end the 2022 season, the Titans tried to improve as much as they could in free agency of the draft without moving on from the core that made them the top team in the AFC South in past years. However, they didn't evaluate their roster correctly and failed to take the step forward they wanted. Now, they're 4-7 and pretty much eliminated from playoff contention. Besides potentially playing spoilers in the finale, there won't be much intrigue. Simply, it's hard to see Tennessee getting hot and becoming a threat to Jacksonville.
If you're keeping count, you'll see that I project the Jaguars to win five of their last six games. You could make the case that this is an optimistic forecast but the truth is that they've been playing much better since they're BYE. Early in the season, penalties, issues up front, and drops plagued the offense. It took them a while but the coaching staff and the players got them fixed.
Moreover, the Jaguars are relatively healthy entering the last stretch of the year. Even though they'll be without players such as left tackle Cam Robinson or Jamal Agnew, they've got more than enough talent to overcome their absences, so you heard it here first, the Jags are going to go 13-4 in 2023. Enjoy the next six games.