The Jacksonville Jaguars were fun to watch in the second half of the 2022 season. After a 2-7 start, they hit their stride and managed to seize the AFC South. Not surprisingly, the Jags are favorites to win the division for the second straight year heading into Week 1.
In fact, here are three reasons they should have no trouble winning their division in back-to-back seasons, a feat they last achieved in 1998-1999, when they were part of the AFC Central. Here are three reasons why.
No. 3 reason the Jaguars will win the AFC South: The general state of the rest of the division
The Houston Texans and the Tennessee Titans made several upgrades to their respective rosters in the offseason. For their part, the Texans drafted quarterback C.J. Stroud second overall and added several skilled position players to the offense, including but not limited to wide receiver Robert Woods, tight end Dalton Schultz, and running back Devin Singletary.
Meanwhile, Tennessee revamped their offensive line and added a couple of depth pieces in tight end Josh Whyle and running back Tyjae Spears. Moreover, they landed DeAndre Hopkins, who gives whoever lines up behind center a bonafide No. 1 receiver. All these additions should help the Titans compete weekly.
The Indianapolis Colts didn't make nearly as many acquisitions as their division foes but have a new starting quarterback in Anthony Richardson. However, all these clubs are lagging behind the Jaguars when it comes to talent. Indy has a subpar wide receiver corps and Jonathan Taylor is set to miss four games to start the 2023 season. Their defense could keep them in games but it's hard to see the offense putting many points on the scoreboard with an inexperienced Richardson at the helm.
Similarly, the Texans will go as far as rookie C.J. Stroud takes them. It's true that he'll have a solid supporting cast but expecting him to play at an elite level in his first NFL campaign is a big ask. On the other hand, Tennessee is counting on Ryan Tannehill to bounce back from a down year and Derrick Henry not to slow down.
Although the Jags also have a few question marks entering the regular season — their pass rush rotation — they don't have nearly as many weaknesses as their division rivals.
No. 2 reason the Jaguars will win the AFC South: 2nd Year of the Doug Pederson era
Despite the fact that Doug Pederson had taken the Philadelphia Eagles to the Super Bowl, expectations were tempered in his first season with the Jaguars. After all, they were coming of the disastrous Urban Meyer era and hadn't won more than six games in a season since 2008. Simply, it was going to take time for Pederson to turn things around and he said as much when he accepted the job.
The fact that the Jags won only three games in the first nine weeks helped solidify the notion that they were going to have yet another losing season. But then, something clicked. Jacksonville hit their stride and won six of their last eight games to sneak into the playoffs and win the division crown.
Throughout the winning streak, Pederson kept his team focused and it paid off. Having undergone a culture shift under Doug P, the Jags should get off to a hot start in 2023. In the same manner, the offense should be in full gear right off the bat.
Most skilled position players, including Trevor Lawrence, are entering their second season in the same offensive system. This familiarity should lead to better execution and overall success. The arrival of Calvin Ridley, the true No. 1 receiver they were missing last year, should most definitely help.
The same is true for the defense. Coordinator Mike Caldwell is in his second season calling the shots. With one year of experience under his belt, his unit should operate more efficiently. If they can find someone to round out their pass rush rotation, opposing offenses may have trouble moving the ball.
No. 1 reason the Jaguars will win the AFC South: They have the depth to overcome injuries
The Jaguars have lots of star power at several position groups. Trevor Lawrence is an ascending quarterback and he'll have the chance to solidify himself as a top-5. At running back, Travis Etienne showed in 2022 that he can carry a big workload, totaling over 1,441 yards from scrimmage. Moreover, their wide receiver corps is one of the best in the league while their tight end room can rival some of the best in the league.
On defense, the Jaguars have several building blocks. Cornerback Tyson Campbell, safety Andre Cisco, defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton (when he comes back from a back injury), and bookend pass rushers Josh Allen and Travon Walker will play big roles next season.
Simply put, Jacksonville has enough talent to make a deep playoff run but if they were to miss a key starter on either side of the ball, they have have enough depth to overcome a few injuries in 2023. Nobody will deny there would be a steep dropoff from Lawrence to C.J. Beathard, the top backup at quarterback. However, Beathard could keep the team afloat in case Steezy Trev has to sit out a couple weeks.
Also, the Jags' depth at wide receiver is enviable. They kept seven wide receivers on their initial 53-man roster and signed a couple more to their practice squad. Their running back room is also full of talent, with rookie Tank Bigsby and D'Ernest Johnson expected to have significant roles in 2023. The tight end room isn't nearly as loaded but still has a couple options in case starter Evan Engram misses time.
On the defense, not having DaVon Hamilton early in the season will hurt but the Jaguars have a solid rotation up front to hold the fort during his absence. On the other hand, they have a solid mix of youth and veterans at middle linebacker, cornerback, and safety. While the team's brass still needs to round out their pass rush rotation, Walker and Allen should be able to get the job done if they manage to stay healthy.
Again, the Jaguars could use an extra pass rusher but even if nobody steps up (we're looking at you K'Lavon Chaisson and Yassir Abdullah), both the offense and defense are in good enough shape to win the AFC South in 2023.