The Jacksonville Jaguars went 6-2 in the first half of the 2023 season but their schedule will get considerably more difficult in the second half. Starting in Week 10 against the San Francisco 49ers, the Jags will embark on a six-game gauntlet that includes a trio of potential AFC contenders, and a couple of division foes.
Then again, Jacksonville must take care of business and beat the 49ers at home before they start thinking about any future games. As head coach Doug Pederson told the media Monday, they must take it one game at a time and San Francisco is an opponent they cannot afford to underestimate.
Although the Niners are coming off a three-game losing skid, they're favored to beat the Jags in Week 10 and it's easy to see why. They have enough talent on both sides of the ball to bounce back. Moreover, they've been a perennial contender under head coach Kyle Shanahan, who knows how best to navigate through adversity.
On the other hand, the Jaguars are playing at home and have one of the best defenses in the league, so they won't go down without a fight. WIth this in mind, here are three storylines to keep an eye on in Week 10.
No. 3 Will the Jaguars be able to contain RB Christian McCaffrey?
Christian McCaffrey has enjoyed a career revival since landing with the 49ers via trade last year. Heading into Week 10, he leads the NFL with 652 yards. However, he's averaged 3.3 yards per carry the last three games and hasn't reached the 100-yard mark.
The Jaguars tend to play a lot of base defense in order to take away the run and force opposing teams to beat them through the air. This formula might not work against San Francisco though, as McCaffrey can line up all over the field and is a pass-catching threat.
Furthermore, wide receiver Deebo Samuel is back and ready to go after missing time with a shoulder fracture. His presence won't allow the Jags to stack up the box, which could in turn help McCaffrey find less loaded fronts at the line of scrimmage.
The Jaguars, for their part, have excelled at stopping the run this season, giving up just 3.6 yards per carry. The trend will need to continue in Week 10 if they don't want the game to get out of control.
No. 2 Can the Jaguars force 49ers QB Bruck Purdy into making mistakes?
Containing Christian McCaffrey Sunday is just one part of the equation. The Jaguars will also need to account for Bruck Purdy, who made veteran Jimmy Garappolo expendable in the offseason. Purdy, the very last pick in last year's draft, is currently in a funk but he's proven to be capable of running the 49ers offense smoothly.
Purdy has thrown just three touchdown passes and five interceptions the last three games. Moreover, his completion rate drops a full 12.0 percent on the road and his quarterback rating is 39 points lower. On the other hand, he's had enough time to adjust in the BYE, and having Deebo Semual and his full arsenal of weapons could help him get back on track.
On the other hand, starting left guard Aaron Banks has been ruled out and there's a chance left tackle Trent Williams, who's listed as questionable, might not suit up. That would give the Jaguars pass rush, more specifically outside linebacker Josh Allen, a favorable matchup.
This is why it will be so important for the Jaguars to shut down the run on early downs and force the 49ers offense into third-and-long situations. Working in their favor is that they'll likely get cornerback Tyson Campbell and safety Andre Cisco back for the game.
Campbell, along with fellow cornerback Darious Williams, will need to handle their assignments and force Purdy to hold onto the football. If they do, Josh Allen will have ample opportunities to get to him.
No. 1 Will the Jaguars O-Line be able to contain Nick Bosa and Chase Young?
The 49ers have built a stout defensive front this season. They already had Arik Armstead and Nick Bosa in the fold but they added Javon Hargrave in free agency and later traded for Chase Young at the trade deadline. Although San Francisco only has 18 sacks, they created pressures at a high rate and had one of the best win rates in the league. With Young now in the mix, they'll be more difficult to contain.
The good news is that the Jaguars will be getting offensive line Walker Little for Week 10. Little missed the last three games with a knee injury but he's fully healthy and ready to line up at left guard. Another thing that will help Jacksonville neutralize the 49ers pass rush is Lawrence's ability to make quick decisions and not hold onto the football. His 2.48 seconds to throw is the fourth-best time in the league.
Lawrence's numbers don't pop off of the stat sheet but he's been highly efficient during the Jags' five-game winning streak, throwing for seven touchdowns with just two interceptions and completing 70.9 percent of his passes. Furthermore, he ranks 16th with 16 big-time throws and his deep passing grade (throws of 20+ yards) leads the league.
Trevor Lawrence (Rank among QBs)
— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) November 9, 2023
On Target %: 79.1% (4th)
Big Time Throws: 16 (6th)
Deep Passing (20+): 98.3 Grade (1st)
Time to Throw: 2.48 Secs (4th)
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The bottom line is that containing the 49ers defensive front won't be easy but if the offensive line can give Lawrence enough time to throw, their chances of winning the game will go up.