General manager Trent Baake failed to deliver in 2023. Fair and simple. While there are many reasons the Jacksonville Jaguars didn't make the playoffs and paved the way for the Houston Texans to seize the AFC South, Baalke most certainly played a huge role. Instead of continuing to load up on talent to ensure the Jags stayed competitive, he took a conservative approach last offseason. Even though that's not a bad strategy in theory, it didn't work in practice.
Many of the players the Jaguars expected to improve ended up regressing, and without a safety net in place, the whole team took a step back. Having said that, the 2023 season is in the books and the Jaguars must get to work if they want to return to the postseason and challenge the Texans for the No. 1 place in the division. For his part, Baalke has to take care of these four things.
4. Pay OLB Josh Allen
The Jaguars wanted outside linebacker Josh Allen to play out his rookie contract because they wanted to make sure he was the playmaker they expected when they drafted him seventh overall in 2019. Allen lived up to his end of the bargain, setting up a new team record for sacks in a season with 17.5. Similarly, he was able at last to find the consistency that evaded him in previous years and was routinely the best Jacksonville defender on the football field. It's time the Jags call a Brinks truck full of cash.
Allen is set to become a free agent in March and the Jaguars could easily tag him to buy themselves more time to get a deal done. However, they should give an extension as soon as possible, and get it out of the way. By giving the 2023 Pro Bowl nod a new deal, they'll ensure he'll attend all offseason activities. This will be of utter importance when you take into account that recently hired defensive coordinator Ryan Neilsen will be installing his scheme.
Last year, Allen didn't attend organized team activities. While voluntary, the Jaguars would most definitely want their best defensive player to be around setting the tone in practice this time around. Another benefit of giving the former Kentucky Wildcat a new deal before free agency begins is that they could use the franchise tag on Calvin Ridley. Speaking of...
3. Trent Baalke must decide what to do with Calvin Ridley, sort out the WR room
The Jaguars had a talented trio of starting wide receivers in Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, and Zay Jones last year. However, their dearth of depth was exposed when Jones missed time. While Jamal Agnew is a game-changer as a returner, there's a dropoff from Jones to him. It didn't help that Agnew also missed time. Fast forward to 2024, and Jackosnville's wide receiver room could look considerably different.
The Jaguars have a solid slot receiver in Parker Washington, who got playing time when Kirk suffered a core injury late in the season. But other than him, Trent Baalke needs to bolster depth at the position. On top of that, he'll need to make a decision on Ridley, Agnew, and Jones.
Ridley is scheduled to hit the open market. What makes re-signing him tricky is that the Jags will need to give the Atlanta Falcons a second-round pick as part of the trade they made to acquire him in 2022 if they give him an extension. But if they let him walk, it will be a third. If he leaves, they'll need to look for his replacement.
Regarding Jones, he's still under contract through 2024 but he's coming off an injured-riddled year. It's fair to assume that he'll bounce back if he stays healthy but if the Jags decide to release him and create a bit of space, they'll have a need at receiver. Last but not least is Agnew. He's also a pending free agent, and if he walks, Baalke will have to add depth and also look for another returner to take his place.
Either way, the Jags may need to dip their toes into free agency or the draft to bolster the wide receiver corps.
2. The Jaguars must fortify the interior offensive line
The Jaguars' biggest weakness last season was without a doubt the interior offensive line. Unable to open lanes in the running game or give Trevor Lawrence enough time to throw, the Jags had a hard time moving the ball and putting points at times. The weakest link was center Luke Fortner but both guard spots could also use a makeover.
Fortner has played every single snap on offense since Week 1 of his rookie season. While that's a feat worth recognition, he doesn't have much else going for him. He's struggled as a run blocker and didn't improve in pass protection last year. There's a chance he'll eventually turn the corner but the Jags cannot afford to wait. They need to either draft a center early in the draft — not necessarily in the first round — or look for a proven veteran in free agency. Regardless of the route they choose, they cannot go into the season with Fortner at center.
In regards to the left guard spot, the Jaguars could re-sign Ezra Cleveland, who arrived via trade at the deadline. Cleveland had made 49 consecutive starts for the Minnesota Vikings before he dealt with a series of ailments last year. Before that, he was as reliable as they come, so the Jags may feel tempted to give him a one-year deal to see if he can hit his stride. Spending a full offseason with the team could help him do precisely that.
An alternative route is to pursue Dalton Risner or Kevin Zeitler in free agency. Conversely, they could sign Kevin Dotson or Robert Hunt to replace Brandon Scherff at right guard. Scherff has been named team captain two seasons in a row and he's made 34 straight starts. That said, he's play hasn't been proportional to the three-year deal worth $49.5 million he signed in 2022.
Scherff is still under contract for one more year but he's set to have a massive cap hit of $23.9 million. If Jacksonville releases him, they could free up nearly $10 million with $14.8 million in dead money. That extra space could come in handy to reinforce the trenches in the offseason. Of course, it wouldn't hurt the front office to use a couple of draft picks on the interior offensive line.
1. Start locking up the Jaguars 2021 draft class
It's never too early to get your players under contract, and the Jaguars should strongly consider giving new contracts to their 2021 draft class. While they can pick up the fifth-year option on Trevor Lawrence's and Travis Etiene's respective contracts, cornerback Tyson Campbell, offensive lineman Walker Little, and safety Andre Cisco are all scheduled to become free agents in 2025.
If the Jags think Little is the long-term answer at left tackle, they should then trade Cam Robinson and pave the way for him. But if they want to keep Robinson around, they'll have to then rework his deal. He will count $21.1 million against the cap in 2024. Keeping both seems unlikely, so the front office will need to add depth at offensive tackle if they end up moving on from either one.
When it comes to Andre Cisco, he's managed to stay mostly healthy after coming out of college with medical red flags. Maybe the prospect of sliding to the third round motivated the former Syracuse Orangeman to give it all in the NFL. Over the last two seasons, he's solidified his spot as a key cog in the Jaguars' secondary and an ascending star in the league. It would make sense to extend him before he has a true breakout season.
Having said that, the most interesting decision of the bunch will be Tyson Campbell. He was on his way to becoming a top-10 cornerback in the league in 2022. However, he dealt with injuries that forced him to miss time and hindered his performance last year. Add the fact that he may not be an ideal fit in Ryan Nielsen's man-heavy defense and he could be shown the door in 2025.
Maybe the Jags will take a wait-and-see approach with Campbell but his situation will be certainly worth keeping an eye on.