The Jacksonville Jaguars didn't qualify for the postseason in 2023. To add insult to injury, they had to watch the Houston Texans beat the Cleveland Browns in Wild Card Weekend. If they want to avoid missing the playoffs again in 2024, they'll need to get to work in the offseason.
Last year, the Jags opted to take a conservative approach in free agency and chose to make any splash signings because they would use their cap for 2024. Now, it's time to put the money where their mouth is. Already, they have their work cut out for them, and these four decisions could turn out to have big implications in the regular season.
4. Moving on from RG Brandon Scherff
After watching Trevor Lawrence get pummeled behind the line of scrimmage in his rookie season, the Jags vowed to give him a better supporting cast and prioritize fortifying their offensive trenches. Among the moves they made in 2022 to accomplish the goal, they gave right guard Brandon Scherff a three-year $49.5 million contract.
While pricey, there were reasons to believe Scherff would solidify the right side of the offensive line next to Jawaan Taylor. A first-round pick in 2015, Scherff was a five-time Pro Bowl selection during his seven-year stint with the Washington Commanders. On the other hand, he came with questions about his durability, having last played a full season in 2016.
Then again, it wouldn't have mattered if the former Iowa Hawkeye had missed two or three games a year if he played at a Pro Bowl level. Unfortunately, that's not the way things have played out. Even though Scherff has managed to stay healthy and make 34 consecutive starts, he hasn't been nearly as dominant as he was in Washington. He hasn't been outright bad, but the Jaguars aren't paying a premium for his services just to be solid or average.
Granted, Scherff played better in 2023, giving up two sacks and 15 total pressures. Moreover, he posted a Pro Football Focus overall grade of 73.6. That said, the Jaguars need him to play even better to justify paying a premium for him.
The veteran guard is currently set to have a cap hit of $23.9 million in 2024 but Jacksonville could create $9.09 million in savings with a dead cap hit of $14.8 million if they release him. At 32, he could still have a few years left in him but there's an equal chance he could experience a decline. If the team's brass released him, they could acquire a cheaper and younger option in the open market.
But if the Jags think he'll build on last season, they could then look for a way to lessen his cap hit for 2024, whether it's a contract restructuring or a short extension.
3. The Jaguars need to decide if Cam Robinson is part of their long-term plans
Fortifying the trenches remains a need one year after it was the Jaguars' biggest weakness. The issue is that it won't be nearly as simple as beefing up the unit. Besides Brandon Scherff, the front office will need to make a decision on left tackle Cam Robinson.
Robinson signed a three-year contract worth $54 million in 2022. A second-round pick in the 2017 draft, he became a leader in the offensive trenches and one of their pillars. However, he was suspended for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy last year. As a punishment, he missed the first four games of the season and the suspension voided the guarantees in his contract.
Although Walker Little played well during Robinson's suspension, his absence was notable. Once he returned, he gave the group a huge boost in the running game. Later in the 2023 season, he suffered a knee injury and the offensive line suffered a dip in production. The bottom line is that the Jaguars were a much better team with Robinson in the lineup, and that's where the tough choice will come.
Robinson is slated to count $21.6 million against the cap in 2024 but the Jags can free up $17.7 million in cap space with just $3.8 million in dead money if they trade him or release him in the offseason. If the team's brass decide to move him, the Alabama product may not have a shortage of suitors given the demand for quality left tackles in the league. He might even net the Jags a second or third-round selection, on top of creating cap room.
The fact that Little has performed well and maybe the long-term answer at the position could make things complicated for Robinson and the team. As important as he's been for Jacksonville, will they be willing to bring him back at his expected pay rate in 2024? His leadership and influence up front cannot be measured but that's nearly $20 million the Jaguars could use somewhere else, maybe even on the center position.
2. Re-signing Calvin Ridley, should be a no-brainer, will the Jaguars pull the trigger?
The Jaguars spared no expenses to get better in 2022. Even after going into a spending spree in free agency, they kept loading up on talent well into the regular season. At the trade deadline, they acquired Calvin Ridley from the Atlanta Falcons even though they had inked Christian Kirk and Zay Jones in free agency. At the time of the deal, Ridley was serving a suspension for betting on NFL games but the expectation was that he would be reinstated in the 2023 offseason.
Right on schedule, the former Alabama standout was granted his reinstatement last March. Still, there were questions about his readiness to play and stamina, given that he had last suited up for a football game in 2021. And that's the thing, the Falcons moved Ridley because as dominant as he was early in his career, he was underwhelming before he retired. At the time though, it wasn't publicly known that he was playing with a broken foot and he was overwhelmed mentally.
When he joined the Jaguars, Ridley showed he was still the same game-changer who tallied over 3,000 yards and nearly 30 touchdowns in his first three seasons combined. During training camp, it seemed like he was making a highlight play on a daily basis. Then, the regular season came and he delivered, hauling in 76 receptions for 1,016 yards with eight touchdowns. Moreover, his ability to draw pass interference calls in his favor helped the Jags routinely move the chains.
Now, Ridley is set to hit the open market. Re-signing him should be a no-brainer. Another year with Trevor Lawrence could help him take his game to the next level in 2024. However, the Jags need to give Atlanta a draft pick as part of the deal they made to trade him. If Jacksonville re-signs Ridley, it will be a second-rounder, but if he walks, it will be a third.
The team's brass will need to decide what they value more, Ridley's playmaking skills or the chance of drafting a game-changer in the second round.
1. Giving Josh Allen a multi-year extension
Outside linebacker Josh Allen had a good rookie season, posting 10.5 sacks and making the Pro Bowl. However, he saw a dip in production the next three years. Whether he was held back by injuries, Urban Meyer, or any other reasons, he wasn't nearly as dominant in that stretch as he was expected. While the team's brass didn't mind picking up his fifth-year option in 2022, they were hesitant to give him an extension, so they let his contract play out last season. The decision paid off.
Allen went on to have a career year in 2023, registering 17.5 sacks, one interception, and two forced fumbles. On top of that, he and long-snapper Ross Matiscik became the first two Jaguars to make the Pro Bowl not as alternates since 2019, Allen's rookie season. Throughout the season, he was the team's best defensive player, wreaking havoc at the line of scrimmage.
Even though Allen didn't earn enough consideration for All-Pro honors, he solidified his place as the Jaguars' most valuable defensive player. Giving up a top-market extension should be a no-brainer but nothing is guaranteed. The former Kentucky Wildcat, his representatives, and general manager Trent Baalke will be exchanging offers in the upcoming months. In an ideal world, both parties should strike a deal before free agency. However, things could get ugly in the blink of an eye.
If the Jaguars lowball Allen, that could be a huge turnoff. On the other hand, it's uncertain what his demands will be and if they are unrealistic, the team may not be willing to cave in. If talks aren't fruitful, Baalke will then need to use the franchise tag, which would rub the Virginia native the wrong way.
Rashad Gary and Montez Sweat got deals during the regular season that pay them each more than $20 million on average per year. That could be the baseline for negotiations between Allen and the team. It wouldn't be shocking to see him demand something in the range of $25 million annually. And if the Jaguars don't get a deal done early soon, this could become a long offseason.