The Jacksonville Jaguars have come a long way since going 1-15 in 2020. They're fresh off their first division title and a trip to the playoffs and are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now.
The Jags should have no trouble returning to the postseason and repeating as AFC South championships in 2023 after reinforcing their roster in the offseason. But if they want to have a realistic shot at reaching the AFC Championship and perhaps the Super Bowl, they'll need to do these three things.
3. The Jaguars must make good use of their running backs in 2023
The Jaguars have a pretty good running back in Travis Etienne, who showed in 2022 that he can carry a big workload. However, they have other options at the position and they shouldn't hesitate to use them. JaMycal Hasty got a two-year extension in the offseason but he'll need to compete with D'Ernest Johnson for playing time next season.
Also in the mix is rookie Tank Bigsby, a downhill runner that can wear opponents down. The coaching staff must make sure he's part of their backfield rotation to avoid overworking Etienne.
The Jaguars' offense has become pass-heavy under Pederson but they should aim for more balance next season. After all, opposing defenses will have trouble stopping Jacksonville deep if they have to routinely bring more players into the box. Conversely, becoming one-dimensional can potentially put additional pressure on Trevor Lawrence's shoulders to win games.
While the offense must revolve around Lawrence in 2023, taking advantage of their deep running back should increase their scoring efficiency.
2. The Jaguars must go at least 3-2 vs. contenders in 2023
Every game matters and the Jags can't afford to look down on any of their opponents next season, even if a few of them aren't expected to rack up many wins in the 2023 season. On the other hand, they must circle a handful of games on their calendar that they can't afford to lose. In particular those against potential contenders.
While the Atlanta Falcons, the Cleveland Browns, and the New Orleans Saints could vie for a playoff berth in 2023, the San Francisco 49ers, the Baltimore Ravens, the Kansas City Chiefs, the San Francisco 49ers and the Cincinnati Bengals should raise bigger concerns for Jacksonville.
The Niners, the Chiefs, and Cincy played in last year's NFC and AFC Championships. Similarly, Buffalo reached the conference game as recently as 2020. Meanwhile, the Ravens should get a better version of Lamar Jackson after hiring offensive coordinator Todd Monken and bolstering their wide receiver corps.
The Jags have enough talent to keep up with all of them and even beat them next season. However, expecting them to sweep them is unrealistic. Conversely, going 3-2 against them is reasonable, and something the Jags should strive for since conference games could have an important role in tiebreakers for playoff seeding.
Jacksonville needs to look for any potential edge if they can somehow end with the No. 1 seed in the AFC South, their chances of making a deep playoff run and playing in the Super Bowl will go up.
1. The Jaguars must keep Trevor Lawrence healthy at all costs
Trevor Lawrence is quickly becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the league and it's not a hyperbole to say that the Jaguars chances of making a deep playoff run are tied to his availability. While backup C.J. Beathard is capable enough of keeping the offense afloat and even rack up a couple win if Lawrence had to miss a few games, losing him for an extended period of time would be a big blow to their Super Bowl hopes.
After all, the Jags have talent at most position groups but there's a significant dropoff from Lawrence to Beathard. That's why they need to make sure he stays healthy even if there's an element of randomness to injuries. What the Jaguars can do to make sure their star quarterback doesn't get hurt is giving him the best possible protection up front.
Cam Robinson is slated to serve a suspension for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy. In his absence, Walker Little will line up at left tackle but if he struggles, the coaching staff shouldn't hesitate to go back to Robinson. Similarly, rookie Anton Harrison is expected to start at right tackle but if he falters, Jacksonville should consider plugging in Little there.
Also, the Jaguars must monitor Ben Bartch's health for the regular season. The 2020 fourth-round pick dislocated his knee last year and might not be ready for training camp. If he isn't good to go, Jacksonville will roll with veteran Tyler Shatley at left guard.
Shatley has made 30 starts across the interior offensive line the last three years and he can hold the fort if Bartch needs to sit out a few games but the Jags shouldn't rule out looking for outside help in case Bartch isn't ready by Week 1.
The bottom line is that there are a few questions surrounding the offensive trenches and Jacksonville must address them if they want to reduce the chances of Lawrence getting injured in 2023.