The Jacksonville Jaguars were the favorites to win the AFC South in 2023. Early in the season, it looked like they were going to earn their second division title in a row but they ultimately came up short.
Once the offseason started, the Jags wasted no time making upgrades to the coaching staff and the roster to ensure they could bounce back in 2024. Based on the moves they made, they should feel good about their chances of regaining control of the AFC South. That said, it won't be a walk in the park.
With that in mind, here are three reasons why Jacksonville will win the division next season and two why they won't pull it off.
3 reasons the Jaguars will win the AFC South in 2024
The Jaguars addressed most needs, added depth in the offseason
The Jaguars made a grave mistake last year. Coming off a playoff appearance in 2022, they needed to load up on talent to remain competitive. However, the team's brass chose to lean on the core they already had instead of making a few signings in free agency to round out the roster. This wasn't necessarily a bad strategy. The issue is that Jacksonville had clear needs but decided not to look for help until it was too late.
The top brass seems to have realized that this approach didn't work because they spared no expense this past offseason to bolster most position groups. Granted, they could still take care of a couple needs but, overall, the roster looks in good shape ahead of the regular season.
As the saying goes, scare money doesn't care money and the Jaguars seem to realize that they'll need to consistently need to replenish the roster if they want to keep up in the AFC South arms race. They did this offseason and should have as good a chance as their division foes to seize the crown.
3 reasons the Jaguars will win the AFC South in 2024
Trevor Lawrence will be a man on a mission in 2024
Trevor Lawrence wasn't able to build off of his success in 2022. While he got off to a promising start last year, he faded down the stretch. Injuries played a role in his dip in performance but so did the dearth of talent around him. Looking back, the former Clemson Tiger wasn't outright bad but he wasn't great. Then again, he was expected to join the upper echelon of quarterbacks in the NFL and fell short.
Once dubbed a generational talent, Lawrence enters Year 4 with high expectations but is well-equipped to live up to them. Last season, he was pressed at a high rate. To remedy that, the front office made reinforcements to the offensive line. On top of that, they got him a new pair of weapons in Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr.
If Steezy Trev can cut down on the turnovers — he had 22 in 2023 — and manages to stay healthy, he should have no trouble ascending to the top 5 of quarterbacks in the NFL. And with him under center, the Jaguars will have a fighting chance week in and week out.
The Jaguars now know how much it stings to be left out of the playoffs
The Jaguars were a pleasant surprise in 2022. Just one year after the Urban Meyer debacle, they conquered the AFC South and knocked out the Los Angeles Chargers in the playoffs. Unfortunately, their success didn't carry over into the 2023 season.
After an 8-3 start, Jacksonville managed to win just one of their last six games. Safety Andre Cisco suggested that they failed to handle the success, and that's partially true. After all, it's the coaching staff's responsibility to keep their team focused, and head coach Doug Pederson wasn't able to. On the bright side, he now knows what things he should avoid and what needs immediate correction, so another meltdown is highly unlikely.
Similarly, veteran players such as Trevor Lawrence, outside linebacker Josh Allen, and defensive tackle Arik Armstead won't let another late-season collapse happen.
2 reasons the Jaguars won't win the AFC South in 2024
The Jaguars have several tough opponents next season
The Jaguars look in much better shape than they did at the end of the 2023 season but they won't really know how much they improved until the regular season starts. Although they have some relatively manageable games against ascending teams such as the Chicago Bears and the New England Patriots, they also have a handful of tough matchups against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Detroit Lions, and the Green Bay Packers.
And that's the thing, Jacksonville should have a chance any given Sunday, but it's uncertain if they're good enough to beat good teams on a weekly basis. If they can't, they could be in for a long season.
The Jaguars aren't the only team in the AFC South that improved
The Jaguars got better in the offseason, but so did the rest of the AFC South. It's also worth noting that the Houston Texans, not Jacksonville, are the reigning division champions and they aren't resting on their laurels.
Besides trading for Stefon Diggs, Houston signed edge rusher Danielle Hunter. They'll join a group of playmakers that includes cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., wide receiver Nico Collins, and sophomore C.J. Stroud. But as good as the Texans are, they're not the only threat to the Jaguars in 2024.
The Indianapolis Colts were in the thick of the playoff race until the end of the 2023 season, and they did it mostly without Anthony Richardson, who suffered a shoulder injury. Richardson is back in the fold and should pick up where he left off in his rookie season.
Last but not least are the Tennessee Titans, a rebuilding team under first-time head coach Brian Callahan. They will probably need a couple of years to become a legitimate contender but they should be competitive with second-year quarterback Will Levis under center.
Add the arrival of Calvin Ridley and L'Jarius Sneed, and the Titans may have just enough talent to pull off a couple upsets in 2024.