The Jacksonville Jaguars won the AFC South last year and are expected to do it again in 2023. While you could argue that they won't have much trouble getting it done, you should always expect the unexpected when it comes to the NFL.
After all, the Jags were projected to win just 6.5 games last year but ended up exceeding expectations and turning heads around the league. Does that mean they won to win the division next season? Not necessarily but there are a few reasons why they should have no trouble and a couple why they might not be able to do it.
No. 3 reason the Jaguars will win the AFC South in 2023: The state of the division
One of the reasons the Jags will tentatively seize the AFC South for the second straight year is that their division foes are undergoing some sort of rebuild this offseason. The Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans hired new head coaches in the offseason and they'll be starting rookie quarterbacks.
Similarly, the Tennessee Titans kept head coach Mike Vrabel but parted ways with general manager Jon Robinson last year and Ran Carthon will be leading their front office moving forward. Even though Carthon made several important moves, the Titans still have many roster holes and might be an offseason away from contending.
Meanwhile, the Jags have stability at quarterback and don't have any glaring weaknesses ahead of the 2023 season. Thus, winning the division won't probably be a piece of cake but it won't be overly complicated either.
No. 2 reason the Jaguars will win the AFC South in 2023: Continuity, Doug Pederson
You could make a Netflix series about all the things that played a role in the Jaguars' inability to win games in the 2010s. Sure, they won the AFC South and made the playoffs in 2017 but every other year they failed to win more than six games in a season. Not being able to consistently replenish the roster certainly hurt their chances, and not having the right head coach didn't help matters either.
Jaguars owner Shad Khan thought Urban Meyer thought he was the man to turn things around, but he was so mesmerized by his achievements at the college level that he failed to see all his flaws. After all, when you look at someone through rose-colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags.
From the moment the Jaguars hired Meyer, things went sideways. At the time, Meyer thought that bringing in a coach that was known for mistreating and abusing players and giving him the position of director of sports performance was a good idea.
Not surprisingly, Jacksonville backtracked after the backlash but Meyer was just getting started in what turned out to be a taxing year for both the coaching staff and players.
In the end, the Jaguars cut ties with Meyer just one year after hiring him and brought in Doug Pederson to take his place. Right off the bat, Pederson got Jacksonville trending in the right direction. And in just his first season at the helm, the Jags won the division and made the playoffs.
In Pederson, the Jags have a leader that won't let them slack and push them to continue to get better. in 2023.
No. 1 reason the Jaguars will win the AFC South in 2023: Trevor Lawrence
Teams such as the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots enjoyed stability at quarterback throughout most of the 2000s and 2010s. Meanwhile, the likes of Cody Kessler, Nick Foles, and Chad Henne started behind center for the Jags.
Sure, David Garrard had his moments and Blake Bortles was a Fantasy Football Darling in 2015. Also, Gardner Minshew provided a glimmer of hope in 2019. However, it wasn't until the Jaguars clinched the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft — s/o to Adam Gase and the New York Jets for beating the Los Angeles Rams — that they were able to put a stop to the revolving door at the most important position on the football field.
From the moment Jacksonville earned the top overall selection, there was a 99.9 percent chance they were going to go with Trevor Lawrence, dubbed the most talented prospect to come out of the collegiate ranks since Andrew Luck in 2012. And to nobody's surprise, the former Clemson Tiger was the pick.
What was a bit puzzling was watching Lawrence struggle as a rookie in spite of his talent but the truth is that his supporting cast was less than stellar and Urban Meyer's incompetence derailed his growth. On the bright side, this was kind of a wake-up call for the Jaguars, who realized they needed to get their franchise quarterback weapons and a coach that actually knew what he was doing (and didn't go dancing when the team lost).
So the Jags got to work last offseason and besides hiring Doug Pederson, they got the best weapons they could get their hands on in free agency. With a better-supporting cast, Lawrence made strides early in the 2022 season but it wasn't until the second half that he really put it all together and played like a top-10 quarterback.
Heading into Year 3, Lawrence is expected to continue to get better, and if he does, he could be in talks about being a top-5 passer and the MVP conversation by the end of the year.
No. 2 reason the Jaguars won't win the AFC South in 2023: Their division foes are trending up
Ok, so the reasons the Jaguars can win the Afc South in 2023 are pretty straight forward but they cannot just take it for granted. For one, the season hasn't even begun. Heck, training camp is still a few weeks away, so crowning Jacksonville is a bit too premature.
And while it's true that every other team in the division either has a new head coach or a general manager in place, the Jags were in exactly the same position last year and still managed to earn the AFC South title. What's stopping other clubs in the division to contend for the title?
Head coach DeMeco Ryans (with the helping hand of general manager Nick Caserio) has reenergized a Texans team that had no direction in recent years. Despite the fact that Houston will enter the 2023 season with several weaknesses, especially on offense, Ryans will have team play until the whistle blows.
On the other hand, Shane Steichen has brought a breath of fresh air to the Colts. And if players such as left guard Quenton Nelson, running back Jonathan Taylor, and linebacker Shaquille Leonard can bounce back and once again play at an All-Pro level, Indy could give the Jags fits in the opener.
Last but not least are the Titans. Sure, they ended the 2022 season on a losing skid but they've patched several roster holes in the offseason, and general manager Ran Carthon added players that could end up filling key roles in 2023. Simply put, the Jaguars' road to the AFC South title might not be as easy as it was last year.
No. 1 reason the Jaguars won't win the AFC South in 2023: They have a tough schedule
It was great to see the Jags get three primetime games in 2023. Sure, they usually got one per year but it was usually on Thursday and the league usually schedule duds that day. They'll get to play on TNF once again. However, they'll also get to play on both Monday and Sunday Night Football for the first time in more than 10 years.
Having said that, not everything was sunshine and flowers on the Jags' schedule this year. For starters, they're set to face the top teams in the conference, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Buffalo Bills, and the Cincinnati Bengals. Also, they're slated to play the San Francisco 49ers, who were one decent quarterback away from making the Super Bowl last year.
While the Jaguars have the firepower to keep up in the AFC, they could lose a few games that could end up having playoff implications. It's true that Jacksonville has a well-rounded roster but games can always come to a play, a drop or even a bad officiating call. Remember Myles Jack wasn't down?
The point is that just because the Jaguars won the division last year doesn't mean they'll do it again in 2023. Winning is tough in the NFL and they have a steep hill to climb if they want to repeat as champions. While there are reasons for optimism surrounding the Jags, they can't uncork the champagne just yet. They should start ordering it though, just in case.