The Jacksonville Jaguars were flying high ahead of Week 14. At the time, they were 8-3 and had a realistic chance to seize the No. 1 place in the AFC. However, they failed to capitalize on the opportunity and now find themselves in a three-way tie in the division following three consecutive losses.
It's true that the Jags remain in first place in the AFC South, but their latest losses have exposed their weaknesses on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts are surging at the right time. Both clubs are trying to make a late-season push for the playoffs, and have more than enough time to surpass the Jags as the top team in the division.
There are three games left in the season, so the Jaguars have a bit of time to get back on track. Having said that, they have a few things going against them in their quest for their second division title in a row and a trip to the playoffs. In particular, these three factors could keep them out of the postseason.
3. The Jaguars are getting worse, not better late in the 2023 season
Clubs are supposed to fully hit their stride in the second half of the regular season. By then, mistakes such as offsides, drops, and missed tackles should no longer be an issue. Yet, the Jags can't seem to stop shooting themselves in the foot. Collectively, they cannot finish drives, and they've struggled to prevent opposing teams from reaching their end zone.
While the Jags have faced several tough opponents this season, they've lost "winnable games." Just last week, they entered Ravens territory and even reached the red zone four times in the first half but couldn't muster a single point. Their offensive line, for their part, has struggled to open running lanes and protect Trevor Lawrence. Granted the unit has dealt with several injuries but it's been a recurring theme most of the year.
Lawrence himself has made several mistakes in recent weeks. He's played through an ankle sprain and a knee injury at different points this season but he's been responsible for mistakes that have held the offense back. This kind of thing would be acceptable early in the season, not with the playoffs looming. And unless they wake up, they could end up on the outside looking in.
2. The Texans and Colts are right on the Jaguars heels with 3 games to go
At the midpoint of the season, you would've gotten a blank stare if you had suggested that the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts had a chance to surpass the Jaguars in the division. After all, the Texans had shown progress but they hadn't fully turned things around. Similarly, Indy had lost Anthony Richardson for the season and were just 3-5. But you should always come to expect the unexpected in the NFL, and both Houston and the Colts find themselves in a three-way tie with the Jags ahead of Week 16.
Jacksonville is still No. 1 in the division due to tiebreakers but they no longer have a cushion after losing to the Ravens. On top of that, they've lost three straight games while Indianapolis has won five of their last six. Similarly, the Texans have racked up five victories the past seven weeks. They're faring much better than the Jaguars and they're far from the only threats to their playoff chances, either as a division champ or a wild card.
The Cleveland Browns, the Denver Broncos, and the Buffalo Bills are all vying for a playoff seed, and all of them have a reasonable chance to make the cut. The New York Times simulator gives Jacksonville a 74 percent chance of qualifying for the postseason but Houston and Indianapolis also hold encouraging odds, 64 percent and 72 percent, respectively.
This isn't to say that the Jaguars won't ultimately make the playoffs but rather that they're no longer the lock they seemed to be at the midpoint of the season.
1. Trevor Lawrence's availability or lack thereof
Not only did the Jaguars fall to the Ravens at home, but they also lost Trevor Lawrence to a concussion. Lawrence is currently in concussion protocol and could potentially miss at least one game. Given that players are cleared by independent specialists, he won't have a chance to push through like he did when he played through ankle and knee injuries on past occasions.
Lawrence hasn't played well in recent weeks but he's also dealt with the aforementioned injuries, which have hindered his mobility. The fact that the offensive line has injuries of their own doesn't help matters, but Lawrence gives the Jaguars their best chance to win, and without him, they could have trouble putting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers down in Week 16.
The thing about concussions is that there's no timeline, so Lawrence could miss anything from just one week to the rest of the season. While C.J. Beathard is a good backup, it's uncertain if he could hold the fort during the three-week stretch ahead of the postseason.
Something else to take into consideration is that Nathan Rourke was claimed off waivers by the New England Patriots, making Beathard the only healthy quarterback on the Jaguars' roster. Jacksonville signed Rourke to the active roster before Week 14 because Lawrence was dealing with an ankle sprain, and there was no guarantee he was going to be able to suit up.
With Lawrence's status for Week 15 no longer in question, the Jags released Rourke, probably expecting to sign him back to the practice squad. However, the Patriots swooped in and claimed him first. So for the time being, the Jaguars are just one injury away from not having someone behind center.
With Lawrence in the mix, the Jaguars were struggling. Without him, they could be left out of the playoffs altogether.