The consensus agrees the Jacksonville Jaguars are the frontrunners to win the AFC South in 2023. Heck, Peter King of NBC Sports turned expectations up to 11 when he said the Jags will seize the No. 1 playoff seed in the AFC next season.
The hype surrounding Jacksonville is most definitely warranted. They're coming off a trip to the playoffs and a division title. With Trevor Lawrence and head coach Doug Pederson leading the way, they have a realistic shot at repeating as AFC South championships and making the playoffs for the second straight year.
That said, things can change in the NFL in the blink of an eye, and the Jags are proof that you should always expect the unexpected. Just last year, they were projected to win six or seven games. They ended up winning nine and making a playoff push. The opposite could happen in 2023.
Despite the fact that the Jags are the favorites to win the division this upcoming season, here are three reasons they could fall short.
3. The Jaguars fail to beat the NFL powerhouses (Chiefs, 49ers, etc.)
The Jaguars proved last year that they could keep up with the best teams in the NFL, rallying from behind to beat the Baltimore Ravens and the Dallas Cowboys in the regular season. Similarly, they found a way to erase a 27-point deficit to come back from behind and beat the Los Angeles Chargers in Super Wild Card Weekend.
Now, Jacksonville will have the opportunity to prove last year wasn't a fluke. In 2023, they'll face some of the best teams in the league, including the Cincinnati Bengals, the San Francisco 49ers, the Buffalo Bills, and the Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs. The Jags have enough firepower to keep up and even beat all of those clubs... but what if they fail?
Last year, they got off to a slow start, losing to "lesser teams" such as the Denver Broncos and the New York Giants. If they don't hit their stride early, it will considerably harder to catch up later in the season.
2. The Titans challenge the Jaguars for the AFC South title
The Jags made the playoffs because they were a good team. However, they also needed the Tennessee Titans to experience a late-season collapse. Had the Titans not been hit by the injury bug, Jacksonville might not have qualified for the postseason. In fact, Tennessee kept things close in the season finale and the Jaguars needed a last-minute forced fumble to clinch the division.
If you look at things from the Titan's perspective (why would you do that?), they had to put a league-high 34 players on Injured Reserve last year. If they had been slightly healthier in the second half of the season, they might not have lost seven straight games to end the year.
That was last year though, this is a new season and the Titans made enough changes to ensure they can challenge the Jaguars for the division. Ryan Tannehill has a chance to rebound from an injured-plague season and Tennessee drafted the explosive Tyjae Spears to give their running game a boost.
Although Derrick Henry is coming from yet another successful season, all the wear and tear he's gotten throughout his career will lead to his eventual decline. Having Spears in the fold ensures King Henry's reign will go on for at least a couple of seasons. Also, the Titans managed a way to land DeAndre Hopkins, giving Tannehill, or whoever lines up under center, a bonafide No. 1 receiver.
On top of that, the Titans will get outside linebacker Harold Landry III, who'll terrorize opposite quarterbacks alongside Denico Autry and Jeffery Simmons. Last but not least is head coach Mike Vrabel.
Just like his Jaguars counterpart, Vrabel will have his players performing at a high level even if things look dire. The bottom line is that the Titans pose a threat to the Jaguars, one they shouldn't take lightly or else run the risk of taking a backseat in the division.
1. The Jaguars lose Trevor Lawrence, other key players to a season-ending injury
There's only so much teams can do to prevent injuries in a collision sport such as football. Having enough depth can certainly help lessen their impact. Sure, there's a drop-off from the starter to the backup more often than not but the best ways ultimately find ways to win in spite of injuries.
In the Jaguars' case, there are several players they're counting on to make a deep playoff run and Trevor Lawrence is without a doubt the most valuable one. While backup C.J. Beathard could keep the offense afloat for a handful of games, not having Steeze Trev for an extended period of time would put a significant dent in their postseason hopes.
That said, Lawrence isn't the only player the Jaguars cannot afford to lose. Their depth on the offensive line is less-than-optimal. Left tackle Cam Robinson will sit out four weeks to start the season and swing tackle Josh Wells will miss the 2023 season with an abductor injury.
If either Anton Harrison or Walker Little gets hurt, the Jags would then need to lean on Blake Hance, a player who has spent most of his career in the practice squad. Similarly, Jacksonville cannot afford to lose either outside linebacker Josh Allen or Travon Walker. As it is, their pass rush rotation isn't in great shape, and missing Allen or Walker would hinder their ability to get after the quarterback next season.
Working in the Jaguars' favor is that they have lots of depth at wide receiver — they're carrying seven wideouts into the regular season — running back, safety, and cornerback. Thus, it's fair to say that they can withstand a few injuries. On the other hand, there's a point at which Jacksonville will no longer be able to. That would be the worst-case scenario for 2023 and if it takes place, the Jags' chances of making noise will decrease considerably.