The Jacksonville Jaguars have bounced back nicely after a loss to the San Francisco 49ers, beating the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans in back-to-back weeks. Next on their schedule is a Cincinnati Bengals team that's trying to stay afloat following the season-ending injury to Joe Burrow.
At 5-6, it's hard to see Cincinnati running the table and making the playoffs. That said, they could be a handful, and the last thing the Jags want is to lose, given how much is at stake. For starters, falling to the Bengals would set them back in their quest for the No. 1 playoff seed. Also, the 7-5 Houston Texans are lurking close, and a loss on Monday Night Football would cut down the two-game lead they currently hold in the division.
Conversely, a win on Monday Night Football would keep Jacksonville in the thick of the race for a playoff BYE and solidify their place at the top of the AFC South. With that in mind, here are three things the Jaguars must do to beat Cincinnati in Week 13.
3. Containing Joe Mixon and the Bengals running game must be the top priority
The Jaguars have a relatively simple philosophy on defense: Focus on stopping the run, force teams into third-and-long situations, and make their offense one-dimensional. While that may sound a bit reductive, that's what coordinator Mike Caldwell and his group aim for week in and week out. More often than not, the formula works.
In Week 13, the Jaguars will face a Bengals running game that ranks last in the league in rushing yards and 27th in rushing touchdowns. While Joe Mixon can still break off a few big runs every now and then, the Cincinnati offensive line has struggled to open lanes for him.
Not surprisingly, Mixon is averaging 3.9 yards per carry and fewer than 60 yards per game. Stopping him and forcing the Bengals to abandon the run early in the game will go a long way toward getting a win Monday Night.
2. The Jaguars O-Line must keep Trevor Lawrence protected on Monday Night Football
Although the Jaguars were a top-10 offense early in the season, they often stalled and left lots of points on the field. Looking back, there were a few things holding Jacksonville back. Drops and Trevor Lawrence's knee injury certainly played a role but the biggest reason for their inability to reach the end zone was probably the offensive line's inability to open running lanes and give Trevor Lawrence good protections.
The good news is that Lawrence's knee is no longer an issue and the team's cut down on the drops. Also, the offensive line has done a much better job up front, allowing a combined 12 total pressures and one sack the past two weeks. Lawrence has taken advantage of the extra time he's been afforded and has taken deep shots more often.
Against the Texans, he had four completions of 40 yards or more, the most a Jaguars quarterback had posted in a game since 2000. Similarly, he's posted a 67.14 completion rate for 626 yards with three touchdowns, and just one interception the past two games. In Week 13, Jacksonville will need to contain defensive linemen Trey Hendrickson and D.J. Reader. The duo have a combined 11.5 sacks this season and will try to force Steezy Trev to get rid of the ball faster than he should.
Walker Little will be making the start at left tackle with Cam Robinson expected to miss three to six weeks. He'll be assigned to block Hendrickson most of the game. Ezra Cleveland, who will be making his first start at guard in Jacksonville, and center Luke Fortner, will be tasked with slowing Reed and fellow defensive tackle B.J. Hill down.
1. Travon Walker and Josh Allen must wreak havoc, take Jake Browning down
As noted before, the Jaguars' top priority is shutting down the running back. Once they do it, they'll put the burden of beating them on Jake Browning's shoulders. The Bengals won't try to put too much on his plate though. Expect Browning to make short, quick passes in an attempt to get the ball into Ja'Marr Chase's hands. Having Tee Higgins back after not playing in nearly a month should give the Bengals' offense a boost, especially if cornerback Tyson Campbell doesn't suit up for the Jaguars.
Going back to Browning, the key to stopping him lies in Travon Walker and Josh Allen disrupting the Bengals' passing game. Working in the Jaguars' favor is that the Cincinnati offensive line has struggled in pass protection. In Week 12, they gave up 12 total pressures — left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. was responsible for four of them — and two sacks.
Meanwhile, Josh Allen is coming off a monster game, one where he played a huge role in kicker Matt Amendonal missing a 58-yard field goal by sacking C.J. Stroud twice (Travon Walker got credited with 0.5) in the Texans' last drive.
Allen is playing at a high level. If he and Walker can bring the heat early and often, the Jaguars should be able to effectively stymie the Bengals' passing game, which would in turn lead to a win, the ninth of the season.