The Jacksonville Jaguars were the team to beat in 2023. They lost that title to the Houston Texans after failing to make the playoffs. While Houston prepares to take on the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round, the Jags have already gone into full offseason mode. They began by parting ways with defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell and most of the defensive staff. Once they fill the vacancies, they'll need to turn their attention to the roster.
Although Jacksonville doesn't have nearly as many glaring holes as other years, their roster wasn't good enough last season. They'll need to load up on talent if they want to keep up with the Texans in the race for the division. Along the way, they'll need to avoid making the following mistakes.
3. Not finding a replacement for Calvin Ridley, creating a need
In his first season in Jacksonville, Calvin Ridley hauled in 76 receptions for 1,016 yards with eight touchdowns. He also drew several pass interference flags that helped the Jags convert on first down. Overall, the offense was better because of him. Granted, he had a few off games but you could make the case that was the result of getting used to his new team, and not playing in more than one year, having served a suspension for betting on NFL games in 2021.
Ridley is now scheduled to hit the open market in March, but re-signing him makes sense. Having shaken the rust off, he would benefit from spending another year with Trevor Lawrence. Their communication wasn't always great but it would most definitely improve if they keep working together. One roadblock to extending the Alabama product is that the Jags would need to give the Atlanta Falcons a second-round pick if they do, as part of the trade they made in 2022.
If Jacksonville lets Ridley walk, it will then be a third. The issue with that scenario is that it would leave a void at wide receiver. While they could find their replacement in the draft or free agency, it's not a given that they will. By letting Ridley leave in free agency, one of their best offensive players from 2023 is walking through the door. Rome Odunze or Keon Coleman are a couple of intriguing prospects, but there's no guarantee their playmaking prowess will carry over to the NFL.
Similarly, the Jaguars could go after Mike Evans or Tee Higgins in free agency, but are they truly better than Ridley? If they decide that not bringing back Ridley is the best course of action, that's fine, as long as they get someone equally good or better.
2. Not making upgrades to the offensive line
The Jags have a franchise quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, who played a huge role in their turnaround in 2022. Lawrence, was expected to keep getting better in 2023 and join the upper echelon of signal-callers in the NFL. Unfortunately, he wasn't able to take the leap and instead regress. While he made a few puzzling mistakes, the main reason for slipping was the poor protection up front.
Steezy Trev's ability to get rid of the ball fast often masked the pass protection issues. But when he needed time to throw, he was pressured at one of the highest rates in the league.
Trevor Lawrence's pressure/sack numbers are misleading because he gets rid of the ball so quickly.
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) November 13, 2023
On throws between 2.5-4 seconds, he's been pressured on 43% of dropbacks--the highest rate of any QB in the NFL this year. Worse than Daniel Jones!
Anton Harrison proved to be a stud at right tackle, and the Jags had a pair of options at left tackle in Cam Robinson and Walker Little. However, the interior offensive line struggled to give Lawrence good protection. Similarly, they couldn't hold their ground in the running game, failing to create lanes for Travis Etienne.
After an underwhelming season, it's fair to say that bolstering both guard spots and the center position should be among Jacksonville's top priorities in the offseason. Luke Fortner regressed in his sophomore campaign, and the team's brass needs to either find their replacement in the draft or acquire a veteran replacement in the draft. Also, the Jags must decide what they'll do at left guard. They traded for Ezra Cleveland at the deadline, but he's set to be a free agent in March.
Even if the Jags re-sign Cleveland, they need to add depth at the position. If they let him walk, they will then have to add the position to their to-do list. Also, they need to make a decision on right guard Brandon Scherff, who's got a year left on his contract and is slated to count for $23.9 million in 2024. Although he's been solid, his play hasn't been proportional to the top market deal he inked in 2022. Releasing him would free up $9.09 million in space, with $14.8 million in dead money.
If the top brass believes they can find a better/cheaper alternative in the open market, they should then move on from Scherff. Either way, they need to make sure their interior offensive line is better in 2024 if they want Trevor Lawrence to bounce back and get the running game going.
1. The Jaguars cannot afford to mishandle contract negotiations with Josh Allen
Outside linebacker Josh Allen started his NFL career with a bang, registering 10.5 sacks and making the Pro Bowl as a rookie in 2019. However, he wasn't nearly as dominant the next three years. In 2020 a knee injury limited him to 2.5 sacks and eight games. The fact that Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue were gone added pressure to his shoulders.
Allen was a full go in 2021 but he once again failed to take over games on a consistent basis. The talent was certainly there, playing a huge role in the upset win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 9. However, he also disappeared at times. With Urban Meyer out of the picture, the hope was that Allen was going to play at an elite level in 2022 but he once again fell short of expectations. He wasn't bad per se, but he didn't make enough plays to warrant a contract extension.
Not surprisingly, the front office picked Allen's fifth-year option in 2022 but chose to let his rookie contract play out. Last offseason, the former Kentucky Wildcat acknowledged that he didn't always play great and vowed to become that player the Jags envisioned. He did and then some, racking up 17.5 sacks, one interception, and two forced fumbles. On top of that, he and Ross Matiscik became the first two Jaguars to get a Pro Bowl nod since 2019.
Now, Allen is set to hit the open market, and if he and the organization cannot find common ground, he'll probably get the franchise tag to have more time to strike a deal. If that's because of how his contract is his demands are unreasonable (e.g. asking for top QB money), the Jags should then draw the line. But if they're trying to lowball him, they're running the risk of alienating one of his top players. The last thing they want is for Allen's next contract to turn into offseason drama.
If Allen ultimately gets the franchise tag, he will be in his right to miss offseason workouts. They cannot afford that to happen, as they'll be bringing in a new coordinator and potentially a new scheme with him. If Allen is absent, their best player won't be on the field. That could affect his teammates' morale, and prevent their new defensive coordinator from installing his system. Avoiding that is simple, give Josh Allen a top-market contract; he deserves it.