Outside linebacker Josh Allen has been the centerpiece of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense since his arrival in 2019 and remains a staple to the defensive front. However, he lacks eye-popping numbers, which may deceive some fans from the impact he does have for the team.
With the offense nearly patched up heading into free agency, the defense needs to be a top priority for the Jaguars’ front office. While Allen is under contract for one more season, his future is unclear beyond 2023, so now is a good time to dive into both the pros and cons of signing him to a long-term contract.
Pros/Cons of Jacksonville Jaguars giving Josh Allen a contract extension
PRO No. 4 – Josh Allen Has Improved Every Year since 2019
Allen’s truly the best pass rusher on the Jaguars even without a large number of sacks to back his case. Where Allen has succeeded is in creating pressure on the quarterback.
In 2022, Allen bested his previous pressure total of 50 by getting 68 on 483 passing downs. Pressuring the quarterback usually leads to sacks piling up, but he managed to tally just seven last year.
Even though this was his lowest in a full season, he did manage to cause four fumbles, which doubled his career best. Along with the pressures and fumbles, he had his shining moment in his career with a 37-yard fumble recovery against the Tennessee Titans in Week 18 to seal the division title.
Con No. 4 – Josh Allen’s Price Tag Might Be Too High
Allen will need to produce in 2023 to justify a hefty contract. With the top 5 salaries for edge rushers averaging out to roughly $ 25.4 million a year, the question is whether he has done enough to prove that he is worth something similar.
When looking at Pro Football Focus’ edge rusher ranking, he comes in at No. 17 for the 2022 season, but as a run stuffer, he ranked third. As promising as it is to see him land as the third-best run stuffer out of edge rushers, it also warrants some concern that he is not elite after four years.
Looking at the players above him on the list, it is clear that he is far from the likes of T.J. Watt and Micah Parsons. The price tag for Allen will be in the above-average range and the Jaguars will have to determine if his progression by the end of his fifth season merits a heavy investment.
Pro No. 3 – Josh Allen’s Mentorship For Travon Walker Is Key
Travon Walker entered his rookie season with high expectations as the number one overall pick and fell far from those expectations. However, one thing he does have going for him is building a relationship with Josh Allen, who was in a similar situation back in his rookie year. Allen is the leader of the defense and plays the same position as Walker.
With a year of experience under their belt, the duo can work together to build upon the success they had as a tandem in 2022. Even with Allen’s future as a Jaguar in question, Walker was drafted to use his natural abilities and groom himself into an elite pass rusher.
That task is a lot easier when you have a veteran that can help the process and Walker has at a minimum three years left as a Jaguar to do so. Re-signing Allen to a long-term contract will help solidify their relationship and give the new kid on the block someone he can lean on.
Con No. 3 – The Jacksonville Jaguars Defense Needs Help
The overall defense for the Jaguars struggled throughout the year, but most importantly, they struggled against the pass. The defense gave up the fifth most passing yards per game in the league and ranked 17th in passer rating allowed.
Now, pass rushers go hand and hand with the pass defense and the lack of sacks obviously means the opposing offenses had more chances of making a play. The Jaguars were tied for the seventh least amount of sacks in 2022 and if you take a look back at the 2017 season, Jacksonville excelled because of the defense’s ability to get after the quarterback.
Granted the secondary has some solid pieces, such as safety Rayshawn Jenkins and cornerback Tyson Campbell. But when weighing out needs for the future the Jaguars may opt to spend the money that it would cost to sign Allen long-term to add more help to the secondary.
Pro No. 2 – Jacksonville Jaguars OLB Josh Allen is a Fan Favorite
Since his arrival in Jacksonville, Allen has always received love from the fanbase. That is evident by the fact that his jersey ranks sixth in sales in the Jaguars shop and it’s the third most popular among their defensive players.
Allen remains the second longest-tenured defensive player on the Jags’ roster behind cornerback Tre Herndon. From a marketing standpoint, Allen has branded himself as the face of the defense and has given fans little reason to dislike him.
Obviously, the NFL is a business and his performance determines if he returns to the team after the 2023 season, but being a player that fans rally behind can definitely play a factor in how much a team will engage in contract talks. Players sell merchandise and tickets, for the Jaguars’ defense that player is Josh Allen.
Con No. 2 – Instant Impact Options in 2024 Free Agency
When it comes down to the dollars to re-sign Allen or not, it also comes to what other options are available for the Jaguars’ front office. Looking ahead to the 2024 offseason, the potential for some big names to hit free agency is there and could provide more reassurance.
With names like Nick Bosa and Danielle Hunter possibly looking to find new teams in the offseason, Jacksonville may look at the production of Allen in 2023 and decide it is worth spending the extra money for guys that would likely provide a bigger impact.
Bosa likely won’t make it to free agency, but if he did, he would warrant one of the biggest edge rusher contracts in NFL history. Hunter is an option that has a great track record with the Minnesota Vikings and a versatility that would prove effective. The free agent market may have some big names along with these two that may cause the Jaguars to move away from Allen.
Pro No. 2 – Franchise Tag could buy the Jacksonville Jaguars time
The last advantage of keeping Josh Allen is that the Jaguars could utilize their franchise tag to keep him around. There is this negative stigma when it comes to a franchise tag, but realistically, both sides win for at least another season.
This gives Allen over $ 20 million in guaranteed money while the Jaguars determine if he will be a part of the team’s future. Entering the 2023 offseason, the team’s brass has quite a bit of money out there in salaries that will need to be adjusted for the future.
But with a franchise tag, there needs to be no negotiation and Jacksonville knows they are getting a player that has consistently improved each year, a leader to the team, and at the moment one of the key members of the defense.
Con No. 1 – The Trade Market is There to Get a Deal Done Now
Entering this offseason, the buzz around teams being potentially interested in trading for the fifth-year edge rusher has already begun. Not trading Allen while teams are interested could lead to several negative impacts on the team.
First, as I have already mentioned, the Jaguars have multiple needs on defense and not jumping on a potential trade now could lead to losing out on future draft picks or other players. Second, if Allen delivers a similar season to 2022, the value that could have been gained will no longer be there and the Jaguars will be the loser in the situation.
With many teams holding onto their edge rushers this would be primetime for the Jaguars to capitalize on a needy team and bring a familiar face like Arden Key back for a bigger role or draft a replacement in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Final Thoughts
In the end, I think we see Josh Allen wear the Black and Teal beyond 2023. A franchise tag may be the most realistic option for the team until they have full confidence in his ability to be the guy they expected when he was drafted seventh overall in the 2019 NFL Draft.
Flashes of his elite playmaking have appeared, but overall he has remained a tier or two below the elite edge rushers in the league. With a better supporting cast around him and Walker making strides in his second season Allen could have a career year.
Of course, until 2022, Allen had yet to have a successful season as a Jaguar, so making the NFL playoffs for the first time in his career will likely give him the desire to remain as well.