The Jacksonville Jaguars will face off against the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. These teams already played in the regular season and the Jags came on top. However, the past game has no bearing on the upcoming one.
Jacksonville is coming off a tough win over the Tennessee Titans and will need to clean up a few issues that surfaced if they want to avoid being one-and-done in the postseason. With that in mind, here are three keys to beating the Bolts Saturday.
3. The Jaguars must contain the Chargers’ running game
The Chargers’ offense runs through third-year quarterback Justin Herbert but they’ve struggled to win when they can’t get their running game going. Back in Week 3, they tallied 26 yards on 12 carries and leaned on Herbert to try to catch up with the Jags once they started trailing. Predictably, the strategy failed and the Bolts lost 38-10.
Los Angeles’ running game flashed at times this past season. For example, they registered a combined 292 yards in Weeks 16 and 17. On the other hand, they ranked 30th in rushing yards in the league and struggled to get things going on the ground.
The Jags will need to thread the needle on this one. They must be committed to stopping the run without stacking the box. Otherwise, they run the risk of letting Herbert torch their secondary and get ahead on the scoreboard early.
Simply put, the Jags’ chances of winning will increase considerably if they can force Los Angeles to become one-dimensional. For that to happen, they must first shut down their rushing attack.
2. The Jaguars must get their running game going in the Wild Card Round
The Jags got hot and went 6-1 to finish the season but they weren’t without flaws. While they had a few convincing wins, they also showed a few areas that could use some work against the Chargers. One of the biggest ones is their running game or lack thereof.
Back in Week 3, running back James Robinson was still on the roster and went off against the Bolts, racking up 100 yards on 17 carries. Robinson is a member of the New York Jets but the Jaguars have a pretty good running back in Travis Etienne.
Etienne logged 1,125 rushing yards in 2022 despite the fact that he started the year behind Robinson on the depth chart. However, there were many games, especially in the second half of the season, in which the Jags struggled to get the running game rolling.
From Weeks 10 to 17, Etienne only had two 100-yard games. Conversely, he had 86 rushes for 536 yards with four touchdowns and averaged 6.23 yards per carry from Weeks 5 to 10. Sure, the Jags have found ways to win even when they couldn’t establish the run but getting Etienne involved against the Charges would keep their defense honest and open things up for Trevor Lawrence and the passing game.
In fact, Etienne can take significant pressure off Lawrence’s shoulders if he can break off a few big runs the way he did against the Houston Texans in Week 17, when he had nine carries for 108 yards in the first half alone.
1. The Jaguars’ offense must avoid a slow start vs. the Chargers
Not long ago, head coach Doug Pederson told the media that it doesn’t matter whether they start hot or slow as long as they win the game but there’s no denying that a strong start puts you in a better position to win.
Although Jacksonville put on display the ability to come back from behind in 2022, their defense has had to bail them out at the last minute on a few occasions. The wins over the Dallas Cowboys and more recently the Tennessee Titans come to mind.
On the other hand, the Jags proved they could build a comfortable lead this past season. They did it against the Chargers in their Week 3 encounter and also against both the Indianapolis Colts (Week 2) and the Houston Texans (Week 17).
Trevor Lawrence showed he can deliver in the clutch when the Jags beat the Ravens, it would be better if they can get ahead on the scoreboard early in the game. They should dial a few deep shots early to test the Chargers’ secondary. This would in turn lighten the box for Travis Etienne.
The downside of going pass-heavy early in the contest is that the Jags could go three and out or fail to put points on the scoreboard if they fail. Then again, Jacksonville can’t afford to be conservative and run the risk of falling behind. They could come back like they did against the Titans but it would be better if they can take away the Bolts early.