The frustrated crowd of hundreds who remained in attendance near the end of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Week 5 tilt against the visiting Houston Texans were not vague in their disapproval. Their numbers were small, but their voice was mighty, and as the Jags’ offense continued to sputter with generational talent Trevor Lawrence at the helm, their voice collectively began to make an unmistakable sound.
They booed.
Maybe you were able to pick it up on your television in the background. Or, perhaps you were one of the few folks who witnessed it in person. Either way, it was clear the fans were not happy.
The only thing that remains a little unclear is exactly what they were booing. Were they booing the offense in general, the play-calling, or (gasp) Trevor Lawrence? No one can be certain, but it seems likely the target of their ire was the quarterback who was missing throws (again), making late decisions, and sometimes boneheaded turnovers (again).
It’s ok to have doubts about Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence
It’s probably the first time Trevor Lawrence has ever been booed in his life by his fans. But, like it or not, the meager crowd in attendance was severely turned off by his performance, and let him know about it. The honeymoon is over.
And it wasn’t just the smattering of die-hard fans in the stadium. Radio shows have been taking call after call since the game ended from fans who are now officially in doubt mode or worse. Twitter has plenty of doubters as well.
Trevor Lawrence sucks. And that’s it.
— AScott (@AScottJag904) October 9, 2022
Though radio hosts and writers may dismiss such fans as reactionary, those fans feel how they feel, and shouldn’t be disregarded out of hand. The uncomfortable truth is Jacksonville Jaguars fans are not naive about football, as some would suggest.
They know what they are looking at in most cases, and they are darn near experts when looking at less-than-stellar play given the hot garbage they’ve been forced to stare at for the vast majority of the last 20 years.
This fanbase knows what bad football looks like. It’s not all emotion beneath the surface of the growing contingent of nay-sayers in Duval county. There is still plenty of reason to remain optimistic about Trevor Lawrence (see below), but for the fans who have seen enough already, there are some troubling signs that may be fueling their rage-booing.
Local media is quick to point out that just two weeks ago, Trevor Lawrence was the Offensive Player of the Week, having just played one of his best professional games against the Chargers. In some cases, as with Tony Smith on Jaguars Today, they are literally pounding the table in defense of Trevor Lawrence.
"We should be critiquing Trevor Lawrence and what’s happened… He is responsible, primarily, for them having lost the three games that they’ve lost. Not completely 100% on his shoulders… (pounds table) he was the tenth ranked passer in the league heading into that game yesterday against Houston. Both of those things are true. – Tony Smith, Jaguars Today"
Smith is defending him, but also qualifying his defense. It’s the difference between defending Trevor’s long-term potential vs. his individual game shortcomings.
Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence hasn’t had that ‘big’ win yet
If you were to chart Lawrence’s overall career trajectory, is his overall arrow still pointing up despite some wiggles? Most would say yes. But, when taking a wholistic view, there is one aspect of his career to date that gets ignored.
Those critical of ’16’ often focus on specifics like lack of awareness, accuracy issues, ball security, etc., and how those issues typically lead to losses. However, most fans understand growing pains. The problem is, there is a piece of the overall puzzle that is missing. If that piece were present, those pains would be a lot more tolerable.
The missing piece is the “wow” game.
Lawrence has just completed his 22nd NFL start. In those 22 games, he has had a handful of good games. But, arguably, not one of those 22 games had fans walking away saying, “wow.” Sure, there were good, you might even say excellent, games such as the Chargers and Colts from this year.
But, to this point, Trevor Lawrence has had only two 300-yard passing games in his career. He has had only three games with a rating over 100.0, none of those games featured 300 yards of passing, and collectively they averaged around 7.0 yards per pass. Those are more like “game manager” types of numbers.
By comparison, within his first 22 starts, Patrick Mahomes had 13 300-yard passing games, plus a couple of 400-yard games. Wow. In one of those 400-yarders, his 12th start against the Rams, he threw for six touchdowns! Wow!! In his third start ever, he was 23-28 for 328 yards and six touchdowns and a 155 rating against the Steelers. WOW!!!
Justin Herbert had 11 300-yard passing games within his first 22 starts. He had ten games with over a 100 rating. Again, Trevor Lawrence has three. Herbert’s highest rating during his first 22 starts came in his third game against Tampa Bay. He only threw for 290 yards with three touchdowns and an average of 12 yards per attempt that day for a rating of 138.0. Jaw-dropping, right? In his 18th start, Herbert beat the Chiefs with four touchdowns and a 125 rating! *chef kiss*
Again, Lawrence’s highest rating was against the Colts. He was 25-30 for 235 yards and two touchdowns for a 122 rating. That rating looks similar to Herbert’s win against the Chiefs. But Lawrence averaged eight yards per attempt and only threw two touchdowns versus Herbert’s four. Pretty good, but “wow”? It doesn’t feel that way.
It’s ok to still believe in Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence
The Bills’ Josh Allen is a name you hear a lot from people who want to preach patience with Trevor Lawrence. That’s because his numbers weren’t any better than Lawrence’s through his first 22 starts, and then he exploded in his third year.
As a matter of fact, in Allen’s 22nd start he beat the Dolphins on the strength of a 21-of-33, 256 yards performance. He averaged eight yards per attempt for a 118 rating. That’s oddly similar to T-Law’s game against the Colts, detailed above.
But, then, in Game 3 of his third season, Josh Allen exploded against those very same Dolphins. He was 24-of-35 for 417 yards, 12 yards per attempt, and four touchdowns! Wow! His rating was 147! And double WOW!
Plus, Allen had his share of bad games, too. In his 16th start, he lost to the Patriots with an anemic stat line that read 13-28 for 153 yards, 6 yards per attempt, three interceptions, and a 24.0 rating. Oof. That’s worse than Lawrence’s rating against the Texans.
But, it’s not so much the clunkers. Justin Herbert had a bad game against the Patriots in his rookie season. But, it was counterbalanced by interstellar games against the Bucs and the Chiefs. Mahomes had a bad outing against the Jaguars, believe it or not, in his sixth game. But, that was counterbalanced by numerous meteoric games that same year.
So, it’s that “wow” game that is missing for Trevor Lawrence, and who knows? It could be right around the corner. It could be this week against the Colts, or some other opponent this year. As long as Trevor gives the fans one or two “wow” games by the end of the year, the clunkers like Philly and Houston will be a lot easier to stomach.
Trevor Lawrence is 23 years old. He had a comically bad coaching staff last year, and even with a couple of clunkers under his belt over the last two weeks, one could argue he’s playing better football overall this year than last. It may be happening slower than expected but progress is happening.
The coaches still believe in him, and it isn’t just coachspeak. His teammates are behind him and believe in him much more than they did in recent Jaguars QBs.
Another reason for optimism is this question: how much trade value would Trevor Lawrence have if the Jags tried to shop him today? No one knows because that’s definitely not going to happen. But, if it did? A lot. He’s likely still worth multiple first-round picks.
His ceiling as a player is not set yet. He still has incredible traits, and is still getting better. So, yes, there are going to be setbacks. But, until the Jacksonville Jaguars know for sure that Trevor is not “the guy,” he is absolutely worth investing time into.
It’s ok to have doubts about Trevor Lawrence, and it’s also ok to still be optimistic. Because the Trevor Lawrence puzzle isn’t finished yet, and the arrow is still pointing up. Fans just need to see a couple of wow pieces.