The Jacksonville Jaguars and the AFC South as a whole have undergone significant changes over the last two years. In fact, only the Tennesee Titans have the same starting quarterback they had in 2020 but you could make the case they’re no longer the same team.
With training camp inching closer, it’s a good time to take a look at some talking points surrounding the division ahead of the 2022 regular season.
4. The Jaguars can indeed more than 6 games in 2022
You have probably heard talking head say that winning six games would be huge for the Jaguars, and it’s easy to see why. The team’s brass made upgrades to the roster in the offseason, most of them in free agency. But until they take the football field, it’s hard to justify ranking them above teams like the Tennesee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts, both of whom have had more success in recent years.
Having said that, the Jaguars have the potential to win eight games, possibly nine. Of course, many things would have to go their way but it’s doable. For starters, Doug Pederson has the team trending in the right direction and Trevor Lawrence will probably be the biggest beneficiary.
Pederson should be able to untap Lawrence’s potential. And with new weapons at his disposal, the former Clemson Tiger should make strides in Year 2. Also, Travis Etienne is back after suffering a season-ending injury last year. And if he can play the way he did in college, the Jaguars will have a dual threat on offense.
So Lawrence needs to improve and Etienne has to stay healthy. Similarly, the offensive line has to protect the young passer and open running lanes for Etienne. Last but not least, all (or most) offseason additions to the defense must gel. If (and that’s a big if) the Jags check all these boxes, they could win eight or even nine games in 2022.
3. Davis Mills isn’t the Texans’ long-term answer at quarterback
Just like Trevor Lawrence, quarterback Davis Mills was drafted last year and landed in the AFC South. But that’s arguably where the similarities end. Although Mills put up better numbers than his division counterpart in his rookie campaign, he doesn’t have as much upside heading into Year 2.
Lawrence is widely seen as a candidate to break out this upcoming season while Mills is probably a placeholder in Houston. There’s a chance the Texans might pursue Jimmy Garoppolo, at least according to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, and the idea kind of makes sense.
Texans general manager Nick Caserio knows the player known as Jimmy G from his New England Patriots days and he would be an upgrade over Mills. Furthermore, Houston might be the only remaining destination for the veteran, as pretty much every other team that needed to address the position this offseason already did.
The former Stanford Cardinal didn’t have a great supporting cast during his first NFL season and it’s remarkable that he was able to make the most of his situation. But that doesn’t make him the Texans’ long-term answer at quarterback.
Another thing that might affect Mills is that Houston didn’t make many acquisitions in the Jaguars in the offseason. They did have four top 50 draft picks this year but they would need to hit on all of them to show meaningful progress in 2022. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks notwithstanding, Mill’s arsenal of weapons doesn’t look particularly enticing.
2. Derrick Henry might no longer be the best RB in the AFC South
This take might be a bit controversial but there are reasons to think Derrick Henry could no longer be the best running back in the NFL or the AFC South. Jonathan Taylor was the league’s rushing leader last year, racking up 1811 yards and 18 trips to the end zone on 332 carries. Moreover, the former Wisconsin Badger isn’t a one-year wonder, as he also logged more than 1,000 rushing yards in his rookie campaign.
But Taylor winning the rushing title in 2021 isn’t the sole reason Henry may not be the top running back in the league. He’s gotten an immense workload over the last three years, 1,021 carries to be exact. Also, he’s coming off an injury that sidelined him for nine games last season. ‘The King’ could very well bounce back in 2022 but based on his usage, there’s an equal chance he might see a decline, not a steep one but still noticeable.
Last season, Henry averaged 4.3 yards per carry, which is still pretty good but was his lowest average since 2017. It’s possible that he will bounce back this upcoming season but there’s an equal chance he will start to decline.
Adrian Peterson went on to lead the NFL in rushing yards and be named MVP just one year after tearing both his MCL and ACL. In the same manner, Frank Gore played 16 seasons. However, most running backs start to see a dip in production when they get close to the 30-year-old mark. Henry, who is 28, will have a chance to prove that he’s the exception to the rule.
1. Matt Ryan makes the Colts the team to beat in the AFC South
So it’s been established that the Jaguars have a shot at winning eight or nine games. However, the Indianapolis Colts made an important change in the offseason that immediately place them as the team to beat in the AFC South and that’s the acquisition of Matt Ryan.
Colts general manager Chris Ballard has found several building blocks, including linebacker Darius Leonard and guard Quenton Nelson, over the last few years. However, he hasn’t been able to get the quarterback position right and has instead resorted to temporary solutions since Andrew Luck retired.
Sure, Ballard had no control over Luck’s decision to call it quits but he’s had several tries to find a long-term answer at quarterback and has failed. For the time being, Ryan could provide stability at the position. While he may not be in his prime anymore, he’s still a pretty solid passer.
Even last year, when the Atlanta Falcons traded Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley abruptly retired, Ryan put up respectable numbers with tight end Kyle Pitts and wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson as his top weapons.
Indy had a good enough roster last year to make the playoffs and if they had gotten better play from Carson Wentz, they might have qualified for the postseason. Now with Ryan at the helm, they could once again win the division, a feat they haven’t achieved since 2014. Then again, the Jags won’t make it easy for them.