In spite of all the moves the Jacksonville Jaguars made this offseason, analysts around the league aren’t particularly enthused. For proof, here are a few quotes, such as this one from Mike DiRocco of ESPN:
"I’d really like to give you a list of reasons why I think the Jaguars will compete for the AFC South title, but I’m not falling into that trap again… until the Jaguars show me something different on game days, I’m not expecting them to hit .500"
Also from that same article, Indianapolis Colts reporter Mike Wells expressed his doubts about the Jaguars’ upcoming season. He believes Jacksonville will surpass his win total from last season but doesn’t think they’re ready “to make the jump into the top half of the divison“.
For context, the Jags chose an EDGE player in Travon Walker in the 2022 NFL draft, passing on Evan Neal or Ikem Ekwonu. Both were considered exceptional offensive line talents, capable of upgrading protection for Trevor Lawrence.
This didn’t impress Mitchell Eltzholtz of Last Word on Sports, who was similarly reluctant to show much optimism for the Jaguars, citing a lack of improvement on the offensive line as the primary reason for capping the Jags’ win total at seven. Finally, Alfie Crow over at Big Cat Country was not going to allow hope to set him up for disappointment:
"As we all know, the Jaguars fell flat on their face and went 3-13. The head coach was fired near the end of the season, and that was that… Personally, I expect the Jaguars to go 6-10. That’s my personal expectation, just based on what we know and looking ahead… Now they have what they believe is their quarterback of the future heading into Year 2. He should make that next step and the team should show significant improvement in the win column. That’s the standard in an NFL rebuild."
Six wins falls in line with what Vegas is expecting for the 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars too, having set the over/under win totals at 6.5.
But, here’s the thing: those quotes above — the ones talking about tempering expectations and not falling into the eternal optimism trap laid nearly every offseason by the Jacksonville Jaguars — are all from articles written in the months between the 2016 and 2017 seasons! Got ya! The 16-game predictions (instead of 17) from Crow were a clue!
The 2022 Jaguars stack up well against their 2017 counterpart.
There were so many talking points in the offseason leading up to the 2017 season that mirror the talking points this offseason, it’s a little weird:
New Head Coach – You got it. Beefed up defense via free agency and the draft – check. Second-year as full-time starter at quarterback – check. Questionable improvements on the offensive line – check. Win total expectations between six and seven – check. And, while those expectations were reasonable in the moment, the 2017 Jaguars would roar through a 10-6 record and may it all the way to the AFC Championship Game, where they were one bad call away from facing off against the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 52.
Naysayers will say nay. “That season was lightning in a bottle,” or “you can’t expect to hit on every free agent like they did that year,” or “that team stayed exceptionally healthy,” will be the sort of responses you might hear from some upon hearing the comparison laid out above.
But, if you go through the similarities line by line, even the coldest heart may find an ember of hope, and that’s precisely what the Jags need after years of losing.
Jaguars expectations in 2017 vs. expectations now:
New Head Coach: Who is the better head coach, Doug Pederson or Doug Marrone? Pederson has a Super Bowl championship on his resume. Doug Marrone is the offensive line coach for the New Orleans Saints. This one is easy. Pederson wins the battle of the Dougs.
Beefed Up Defense: No one can say with a straight face that they knew Sacksonville was coming to town in 2017. There was hope, but it is difficult to find anyone who was willing to go out on a limb and say the Jags’ D would be that good. So, is it reasonable to expect the 2022 defense to match that one? Maybe not. Perhaps Foley Fatukasi won’t have the exact same impact as Calais Campbell, and maybe Darious Williams won’t quite match AJ Bouye of 2017. Those free agent signings were grand slam home runs.
But, it isn’t crazy to expect Fatukasi and Williams to get close, and you can reasonably expect Foyesade Oluokun to outshine Barry Church. And, while the 2017 group was joining a defense that already featured Jalen Ramsey, Telvin Smith, and Malik Jackson among others, the 2022 squad also has a few pieces in place such as Josh Allen, Shaq Griffin, and Tyson Campbell.
Plus, 2022 has several additions beyond Fatukasi, Williams, and Oluokun via the draft. Most notably, 2022 will boast a completely revamped and impressive linebacking corps that features three new players beyond Oluokun in Travon Walker, Devin Lloyd, and Chad Muma.
The Jaguars have a promising quarterback in Trevor Lawrence.
With the gift of hindsight, it is easy to see how perfectly the 2017 defense was set up for greatness. But, in May of 2017, when Mitchell Eltzholtz expected the Jags to have a good defense, he didn’t expect it to be stellar. Mike DiRocco didn’t think the defense would be good enough to lead the Jaguars to the AFC Championship game. There was hope. But, the expectation at that time wasn’t too different from what fans are feeling now.
Young Quarterbacks: Blake Bortles vs. Trevor Lawrence. This similarity, while somewhat accurate, is a little different. Bortles was drafted in 2014, and while he didn’t start the season opener, he started 13 games that year. So, while Lawrence enters his true second season as a starter, Bortles was essentially entering his third. But, the similarity here is more about the expectation, or hope, that each quarterback will take the next step.
While the fanbase in Jacksonville does have a small minority of fans who don’t see potential in Lawrence, it’s fair to say the vast majority of fans are more bullish on Lawrence now than they were on Bortles going into 2017. Sure, many optimists were pointing to some encouraging stats from The Boat’s second year, but many were pointing out that those stats were misleading as they were accumulated during “garbage time.”
Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence is still seen as a potential star, with mitigating circumstances limiting him to a less than impressive rookie year. The former Clemson Tiger wins the battle of optimism for young quarterbacks.
The Jaguars O-Line is arguably better now than it was in 2017.
Questionable offensive line: After the 2016 season, the Jaguars added just one new starter in the form of rookie Cam Robinson. The other starters were Patrick Omameh, Brandon Linder, AJ Cann, and Jeremy Parnell. Robinson returns in 2022, only now he is a seasoned veteran. This year’s unit also adds a new starter in Brandon Scherff, a significant upgrade when compared to adding a rookie in 2017.
There is also hope that Walker Little can upgrade the right tackle position, and that center will at least be a push with the retirement of an injury-riddled Brandon Linder and the drafting of Luke Fortner to compete with Tyler Shatley. There were questions surrounding both lines in both offseasons. But, optimism for the 2022 line is higher.
Win total expectations: It’s awfully strange that the Vegas line for both the 2017 Jaguars and their 2022 version are EXACTLY THE SAME! It would be interesting under normal circumstances. But, with so many other similarities between the two iterations, it’s beyond interesting. It’s intriguing.
Plus there’s more! How about a rookie running back in Leonard Fournette vs. a “redshirt rookie” running back in Travis Etienne? And even if next year’s defense doesn’t quite achieve the superlative play of 2017, the offense shapes up to be much better overall with superior receiving threats to work with across the board.
So, take heart, Jacksonville Jaguars fans. It’s fair to temper your expectations. But, don’t feel so beaten down that you lose hope. 2022 is giving fans every reason to remember how they felt in 2017 before the season, and given all the similarities, there’s reason to believe it can live up to 2017’s reality.