James Robinson is the quintessential example you can find a running back in the later rounds of the draft or even after it. In 2020, the Jacksonville Jaguars signed the Illinois State standout as an undrafted free agent and looking back, it might’ve been one of the best offseason decisions they made, as he quickly became one of their best offensive players.
Think about it, nobody will deny Robinson was a talented player for the Redbirds, racking up 797 carries for 4,444 yards, and 44 touchdowns over his four-year collegiate career. However, the Jags had a starting running back in Leonard Fournette, who was coming off his second 1,000-yard rushing season in three years.
Nevertheless, things quickly change and Robinson found himself as the Jaguars’ starting running back after the team released ‘Lenny’ before the 2020 season started. Although he had a modest Week 1 debut, amassing 62 yards on 16 carries, he quickly showed what he could do in the NFL, running the ball 16 times (again), but finishing with 102 yards against the Tennessee Titans in Week 2.
Robinson was finished the season with 240 carries for 1,070 yards and seven touchdowns but his contributions went beyond running the ball, hauling in 49 receptions for 344 yards and three touchdowns. Moreover, his 1,414 total yards from scrimmage yards were the most by an undrafted rookie in NFL history.
What’s more surprising is that Robinson achieved the feat even though he missed the last two games of the season with an ankle injury. Had he stayed healthy, his numbers would’ve been even better, so heading into the 2021 NFL season, here are three realistic expectations for the Illinois native.
James Robinson will be the Jacksonville Jaguars primary running back.
You would think that after having a historic rookie campaign, James Robinson would be the Jaguars’ workhorse. After all, he proved he could take on the load and had 86 percent of the Jaguars’ carries in 2020, the highest figure in the whole league. However, the team’s brass threw a curveball at everyone and drafted Travis Etienne with the 25th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Regardless of the pros and cons of using a first-round selection a running back, Etienne was one of the most explosive players in the draft and the Jaguars’ offense will benefit from his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, so how will the coaching staff use Robinson in 2021?
The sophomore will likely be the starting running back for the Jaguars, and something astonishing would have to happen for Etienne to get ahead of him on the depth chart. On the other hand, Robinson will now have to split carries with the Clemson product but how many should he get per game?
Last year, Robinson averaged 17 carries per game and he only had more than 20 four times. Keep in mind Jacksonville couldn’t extend drives in 2020 and they frequently played from behind, so they abandoned the run early more often than not.
The Jaguars offense should be significantly better in 2021 and should be able to extend a few more drives, so there’s a chance they will be able to run the ball more, which means more touches for both Robinson and Etienne. Taking everything into consideration, the second-year running back should get between 13 and 15 carries per game, which should in turn help him stay fresh and be even more productive.
James Robinson will lead the Jacksonville Jaguars in rushing yards.
Ok, so James Robinson won’t be a workhorse running back but that doesn’t mean he will post mediocre numbers. The fact he will have someone to spell him from time to time should help him be even more productive in 2021. Last season, he averaged a healthy 4.46 per carry even though opposing defenses knew he was getting the ball, and the offensive line wasn’t great at run blocking.
The Jaguars brought back all their starting offensive linemen and although the team’s brass expects the unit to improve, they won’t suddenly become the ‘Hogs’. Let’s say they improve a bit and now that the team has a competent quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, defenses won’t be able to stack up the box. Robinson will most likely have wider running lanes and his average per carry should be slightly higher…
If Robinson gets 13 carries per game and averages 4.8 per carry, he would average 998 rushing yards in a 16-game season. Then again, the NFL added another matchup to the calendar in 2021, so the second-year running back would finish with the year with 1,068 yards.
On the other hand, Robinson’s number of targets in the passing game will likely decrease. Etienne is a better receiver out of the backfield and the coaching staff might favor him in obvious passing situations, so expecting Robinson to once again catch 49 passes won’t be feasible and could finish the season with 20 receptions. Either way, he should still have a big role on the Jag’s offense.
The Jacksonville Jaguars sophomore running back won’t get many accolades.
As talented as Robinson was in 2020, he didn’t get the recognition he deserved for several reasons. First, the Jaguars weren’t very good, so his feats were overshadowed by the team’s inability to win games. Even though he totaled the most scrimmage yards in NFL history, this Jacksonville team lost 15 straight games. Also, fellow rookie Antonio Gibson scored 11 rushing touchdowns while the former Redbird only had seven trips to the end zone.
Also, quarterbacks garner more attention than running backs so it wasn’t surprising to see Justin Herbert earn the 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year Award after having an outstanding campaign for the Los Angeles Chargers. If there’s a silver lining is that Pro Football Focus named Robinson the biggest surprise at running back in 2020. Nevertheless, it feels like the Jaguars’ running back didn’t get as much credit as he deserved and won’t get much in 2021 either.
Even if Robinson crosses the 1,000-yard barrier (or gets close to it), it will be very difficult for him to get a Pro Bowl nod, let alone an All-Pro designation and it could be unrealistic to expect him to do so.
The sophomore will still be the Jaguars’ primary running back but will now work in tandem with Etienne. Last season, the Jaguars’ running game ranked 28th in yards and 31st in touchdowns, and taking away some carries from Robinson might benefit the team, so even if his individual production takes a hit, the Jaguars rushing attack will be in better shape than it was in 2020.