After months of waiting, it’s official. The Jacksonville Jaguars have selected quarterback Trevor Lawrence with the first overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. They had been looking for a franchise quarterback for more than a decade and it seems like their search has come to an end, but what kind of expectations should they have for the Clemson standout in 2021?
Lawrence recently talked to Peter King of NBC Sports about joining the Jags and some of his own expectations. He says it feels great to be a part of the team and is excited to make Jacksonville his home. Speaking about the transition to the NFL, the quarterback said is aware that the level of competition in the NFL will be higher than it was at Clemson but says will continue to be who he is and adds that he’s accustomed to playing under pressure.
Later in the conversation, Lawrence said that he wears number 16 because of former NFL quarterback Peyton Manning. He mentioned that he’s been fortunate to talk to the All-Pro and shared some of the advice he has been given, such as coming in and going to work, and earning the trust of his teammates.
Lawrence told King he hates to lose and will have the same mindset he had at Clemson. He says he won’t get content and doesn’t want to expect to lose. While it will be a while before he takes the football field and wins some football games, here are three reasonable expectations for him this upcoming season.
1) Trevor Lawrence has the be the Jags starting quarterback since Day 1.
This may be silly but for Trevor Lawrence to be a difference-maker, he needs to get on the football field, which won’t be a difficult bar to clear. It’s uncertain whether the Jaguars’ brass will name him the starting quarterback by default or he will have to earn the job. If the team asks Lawrence to win the starting job in training camp, he should have no trouble beating incumbent Gardner Minshew II and C.J. Beathard, as he’s more talented than both of them.
Once Lawrence becomes the Jaguars’ starting quarterback, he needs to remain healthy and not miss any games. This may prove to be a bit more challenging as out of all the quarterbacks drafted in the first round the previous two years, only Kyler Murray started all 16 games in his rookie campaign.
Justin Herbert, the 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year was close, starting 15 last season, and last year’s first overall pick, Joe Burrow, was on his way to starting all games before he suffered a knee injury in Week 11. Had the LSU standout stayed healthy, he might’ve started all 16 games.
Injuries are random and the Jaguars can’t tell Lawrence not to get injured. However, they should expect him to start all 16 games. After all, the more time he spends on the field, the higher their chances of winning games will be.
2) Trevor Lawrence must be the best quarterback of the 2021 draft class.
Whoa, hold on! Wasn’t this article supposed to be about reasonable expectations? You might be wondering why the volume suddenly went all the way to 11 and whether it’s feasible to expect Trevor Lawrence to be better than Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, and Justin Fields in 2021. It may look a little complicated but it isn’t as outlandish as it sounds and is certainly possible.
Lawrence is the most talented of the bunch and the Jaguars have done a good job of adding playmakers and depth in free agency and the draft. Other than maybe their offensive line, Jacksonville’s offense looks significantly better than last year, when they lacked playmakers. The quarterback will have a talented trio of wide receivers to throw the ball to, DJ Chark Jr., Marvin Jones Jr., and Laviska Shenault Jr.
Also, the Jaguars’ running game should take some of the load off Lawrence’s shoulders. Last year, Joe Burrow was forced to throw the ball at an alarming rate to make up for the Cincinnati Bengals’ shortcomings as a team. In Week 2 alone, he attempted 61 passes and if Lawrence throws as many passes in one game, Jacksonville will be in trouble.
The Jags have done a good job of revamping the roster this offseason, so Lawrence doesn’t have to carry the team on his shoulders. If he can take advantage of all the talent he will have at his disposal, he should perform better than his fellow quarterbacks and even win the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award.
3) Trevor Lawrence must help the Jacksonville Jaguars win a few more games.
Trevor Lawrence expects to win but so does every NFL player and nobody goes into a game hoping they will lose. While it’s unlikely that the Jags will win just one game in 2021, the team needs to set the bar at a reasonable level, and ‘not losing 15 consecutive games’ is the bare minimum, so how many games should Jacksonville expect to win with the Tennessee native at the helm?
Keep in mind that football is a team sport and winning and losing go beyond what a quarterback does on the field. On the other hand, signal-callers have the biggest impact on the outcome of a game, so it’s not surprising to see every team in the league always looking for a great one. The Jags have one and they surely hope they become perennial playoff contenders down the road, but what about his rookie year?
This Jacksonville team has had just one winning season in the last 13 years, so asking them to buck the trend in 2021 may be difficult. Also, winning three or four games may be setting the bar too low.
The Jaguars are building around Lawrence, they have a talented wide receiver corps, a crowded running back room and their defense should be significantly better than it was last season when it ranked near the bottom of the league. Looking at the level of talent the Jaguars currently have, expecting Lawrence to help them win eight games isn’t far-fetched.