Blake Bortles is the key to the Jacksonville Jaguars’ hopes. The offense rests on his young shoulders as he gears up for his second NFL season. 2015 was supposed to be his debut, but with the Jaguars in rebuild mode they decided to hand the reins over to the rookie early in the 2014 season.
2015 saw Bortles show some impressive abilities while struggling on the whole. To say his rookie season was a struggle may be an understatement. Bortles was the most sacked quarterback in the NFL last season (he didn’t even play a full 16 games!) and he was leading in interceptions for a while (good thing Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers were around).
As we gear up for 2015, we have to look at a few questions that linger over Bortles. If we have answers for most of these in 2015 then his career may finally take off. If not, we may be in store for another few years of struggle before the next quarterback is brought to town.
Nov 9, 2014; London, UNITED KINGDOM; Dallas Cowboys defensive end Jeremy Mincey (92) and safety Barry Church (42) sack Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles (5) in the second quarter of the NFL International Series game at Wembley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
1) Can Blake Bortles Stop Taking Sacks?
The 2014 Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line was a mess (to be generous). The offensive line allowed an historic number of sacks and that franchise record-setting week two game that saw Chad Henne go down 10 times is still painful to think of.
Hopefully we don’t have to see that happen again.
The Jags overhauled the offensive line for 2015. There may be three new starters at guard, center, and right tackle for the team. Any semblance of consistency is good for the Jaguars and it’s good for Blake Bortles. He went down 55 times last season and many of those can be attributed to the offensive line. Many of them are on him, though.
Pro Football Focus attempts to quantify just how many sacks are attributed to any one player for each down, game, and season. Most of them belong to the offensive line, but a handful of them tend to fall on the quarterback. For Bortles, that number is seven.
Often compared to Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Bortles is a big quarterback who likes to hold onto the ball to make plays. Sometimes it works in his favor and sometimes it doesn’t. For Big Ben, it works out more often than not. Bortles will have to work hard on making that happen or else he’s going to struggle to make any plays for the offense and will see the defense celebrating instead.
With the improved offensive line and a full offseason as the unquestioned starter paired with a season of experience, I think we can expect a decline in the sacks Bortles sees each week. It would be great to see the final season number closer to 20, but that may be too much progress to hope for in just one year.
Next: Will Bortles Limit His Mistakes?
Sep 28, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles (5) walks off the field after the San Diego Chargers beat the Jaguars 33-14 at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
2) Can Blake Bortles Limit His Interceptions?
17 interceptions.
In the past three seasons Aaron Rodgers has thrown just 19 interceptions. But he’s the best quarterback in the NFL right now and marching his way toward Canton, so maybe that’s an unfair comparison. During those same three seasons, Alex Smith threw just 18 interceptions. He’s much closer to mortal and perhaps a better comparison. The point is that 17 interceptions is a lot. There will always be guys like Eli Manning and Jay Cutler to compare with as turnover machines, but if Blake Bortles wants to be one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL, it’s clear he’ll have to limit his interceptions.
There are plenty of quarterbacks in the NFL that throw 10+ interceptions in a season. Even Peyton Manning threw 15 last season! Bortles, however, struggles with a high interception rate. While Peyton Manning is tossing one just 2.5% of the time and Matt Ryan’s 14 picks come just 2.2% of the time, Bortles is throwing an interception on 3.6% of his attempted passes. That’s a rough rate. Even though Cutler and Rivers were above him in total interceptions this past season, Bortles easily had the highest percentage of attempted passes intercepted among major starters.
Interceptions are often more forgivable when paired with touchdowns. Unfortunately for Bortles, he threw just 11 all season. If we measure that as a percentage of passes, it’s just 2.3%. Cutler managed to stay with the Chicago Bears (for at least one more season) in large part because he throws a TD on 5% of his attempted passes.
Bortles will have to limit mistakes not just to stay in the competition with his fellow quarterbacks, but also to keep the Jaguars in competition. The Jags defense hasn’t been able to shine in large part because it is always on the field, being beaten down by the opposition. Turning the ball over will force the defense back on the field to be slowly whittled down again all while costing the Jags the opportunity of putting points on the board. The Jaguars just aren’t good enough overall to overcome mistakes from the quarterback right now.
While I think he may still have 10+ interceptions in 2015, I think Bortles will see his interceptions rate (as a percentage of attempted passes) go down. By all accounts he’s getting better and his receivers are as well.
Next: How Will the New OC Affect Bortles?
May 28, 2015; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles (5) and offensive coordinator Greg Olson gesture during OTAs at the Florida Blue Health and Wellness Practice Fields. Mandatory Credit: Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports
3) Can Blake Bortles Adapt to Greg Olson’s System?
Being able to adapt is oftentimes the deciding factor between the greats in the NFL and those who are just good. For some quarterbacks, that means adapting to game situations. For others, it’s to new offensive systems. Blake Bortles faces a big challenge entering 2015 in learning a new offensive system in just his second year with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Two years with two systems isn’t a great way for a quarterback to begin his career in the NFL.
How Bortles adapts to learning a new offense will help dictate the play for the entire Jags O. While everyone has to be on the same page – meaning that every player has to know the new system and understand its execution – it will be Bortles directing the offense and in charge of the execution. Whether it’s a handoff or a pass, Bortles has to understand what each and every one of his supporting players is doing while on the field. That can be difficult for a young quarterback who is also focusing on honing his mechanics and limiting his mistakes while playing.
It’s going to be a tough task for Bortles to lead with a new offensive system and how he does it will dictate how well the Jags offense does. It sounds like he is dedicated and able to work hard to get it right so far this offseason. Hopefully that is enough to avoid any hiccups right out of the gate.
Next: Will the Wins Finally Come?
Dec 28, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles (5) throws over Houston Texans defensive end Jared Crick (93) during the game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
4) Will Blake Bortles Bring Wins?
Winning is the key measurement for quarterbacks. While the statistics can add up and make everything look pretty, what matters most for a quarterback is whether the W’s stack up in the win column. Blake Bortles has just a 3-10 starting record so far, but the Jacksonville Jaguars were decidedly more competitive with Bortles in the game. He had his mistakes and there were moments that could have kept the Jaguars closer to winning another one or two games, but on the whole it has been a losing effort so far in his career.
If Bortles can turn that around his sophomore campaign, then the Jaguars will be in a much better situation. He needs to lead the Jaguars to victory, not just to better play. As much as head coach Gus bradley hammers just getting better into the team, it should be taken as a way to get more wins. Bortles will be remembered for his win-loss record with the Jaguars more than anything else.
For some quarterbacks, the wins and the stats come together. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are able to rack up yards and touchdowns en route to victory upon victory. Meanwhile, guys like Eli Manning don’t make it pretty but are able to find ways to win two Super Bowls. In the end, it’s those records that everyone will keep in their minds. Hopefully, Bortles will be able to start the transition from being remembered for a poor rookie season to being remembered for a solid, winning career in 2015.
The Jaguars are desperate for wins after years of being in the cellar of the AFC South. While it isn’t fair that quarterbacks assume more responsibility for wins than any other player, it all seems to rest on Bortles going forward.
Next: Can Bortles Become 'the Guy?'
Oct 5, 2014; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles (5) is introduced as the Steelers beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 17-9 at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: David Manning-USA TODAY Sports
5) Will Blake Bortles Become the Face of the Franchise?
The face of the franchise is an interesting concept across sports. From LeBron James to Lionel Messi, some players are just transcendent in their abilities to define a team. Blake Bortles is expected to be that defining face for the Jacksonville Jaguars. He was drafted to be the next great Jags quarterback and with that comes the responsibility of being the face of the franchise.
The Jaguars haven’t had a quarterback as the face of the franchise in a very long time. You could argue that Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor held the role for a number of years, even with successful seasons from quarterbacks Mark Brunell and David Garrard. Byron Leftwich and Blaine Gabbert never really felt like they defined the Jaguars, even with their meager successes in some regards.
Bortles will have to assume the mantle and 2015 may well be the start of it. Without a top-flight, established running back on the roster and without a dominant wide receiver, it will likely fall to Bortles to become the face of the franchise by default. It’s a lot of pressure to be the guy at quarterback. It’s even more pressure to be the guy for the entire franchise. That is what is expected of Bortles, however, and he will have to prove he is up to the task. The Jags (and fans like us) need someone to band around and Bortles is the most likely candidate.
Next: What if Blake Bortles Doesn't Progress?
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