Will Arian Foster take the Rushing Title in 2012? Source: US-Presswire

While there will inevitably be someone who comes out of nowhere to put up some big numbers like Arian Foster has done, who really has a shot at taking home the title and being the “best running back” in 2012.  For purposes of discussion, the best running back will be defined as the most yards on the ground in a season (the same qualification for running backs to win the rushing title).

So, who will it be?  A rebounding Adrian Peterson?  A no longer disgruntled Chris Johnson?  How about Ben Tate rather than Foster?  Here are the top ten from last year:

1. Maurice Jones-Drew: 1,606 yards
2. Ray Rice: 1,364 yards
3. Michael Turner: 1,340 yards
4. LeSean McCoy: 1,309 yards
5. Arian Foster: 1,224 yards
6. Frank Gore: 1,211 yards
7. Marshawn Lynch: 1,204 yards
8. Willis McGahee: 1,199 yards
9. Steven Jackson: 1,145 yards
10. Ryan Matthews, 1,091 yards

Of the top ten from last year, five were in the top ten from 2010: Maurice Jones-Drew (5th), Ray Rice (10th), Michael Turner (3rd – talk about consistent!), Arian Foster (1st), and Steven Jackson (8th).  The players who didn’t repeat?  Adrian Peterson (6th), Jamaal Charles (2nd), Chris Johnson (4th), Rashard Mendenhall (7th), and Ahmad Bradshaw (9th).

Of the five who have repeated the past two years (some longer than that), I think it is safe to say that Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, Arian Foster, and Michael Turner will be back in the top ten for 2012.  As much as I like Steven Jackson (and I like him a lot!) I don’t see him replicating his success in 2012 with a revamped offense, new head coach, and some serious wear and tear on his body (the guy averaged 20 attempts per game the past three seasons and has had injury issues).

Look for San Fran's Frank Gore to be Limited by Defenses as they make the Niners pass to beat them. Source: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE

With the assumption that four of our top ten spots will be filled, who can we expect to join them?  From last year’s top ten, I find that the most probable returns for 2012 will be Ryan Matthews and LeSean McCoy.  McCoy has proven he will be a versatile threat on every down and he is featured in a lot of plays under Andy Reid.  Matthews will be forced into taking more handoffs with the departure of wide receiver Vincent Jackson to Tampa Bay and will carry a much bigger burden of the offense.  Matthews stepped it up last year by 21 yards per game and an increase of only two more attempts per game.  The guy is finally filling LaDainian Tomlinson’s shoes.

Right now, our list is sitting with six players on it.  All of whom have been in the top ten this past year.  Who gets the final four slots?  Who will round out the top ten in the competition for the rushing title?  For that, I turn my attention to the yards per attempt statistics for last year.  Of the running backs who are already in our six defined spots, none of them are in the top ten for yards per attempt (though the statistics do include quarterbacks Cam Newton and Tim Tebow).  Of the top ten in yards per attempt, two teams (Buffalo and Carolina) have two running backs in average yards per attempt.  C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson represent Buffalo, and DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart represent Carolina – as does Cam Newton.

I expect that the loads on both sides will continue to be split amongst multiple players, though if Williams is injured again – as his history suggests he may be – I fully expect that Stewart could slip into the top ten to round out the bottom.  And with Cam Newton focusing more on passing rather than running, look for Stewart’s attempts per game to increase. Unfortunately for Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, I don’t expect either of them to outdistance the other in 2012.  Especially with Spiller expected to have a very good year.  Both players will be successful, of this I have no doubt, but neither will be able to set such a pace that the team abandons its two-headed monster of a backfield.

Right now, this is how our top ten looks (with no rankings applied)

• Maurice Jones-Drew
• Ray Rice
• Arian Foster
• Michael Turner
• LeSean McCoy
• Ryan Matthews
• Jonathan Stewart

Nothing like a knee injury to make you want to succeed next year. Source: Geoff Burke-US PRESSWIRE

I think it is about time we took a look at Adrian Peterson.  Adrian Peterson injured himself in the 12th game of the season last year and is still working on coming back full force.  But in 12 games, he put up 970 yards.  That’s 80.8 yards per game (good enough for 8th on the list of yards per game).  Will AP be back in time for the start of the season?  Maybe.  But he’ll be back at some point.  And when he returns, he’ll be hungry.  If the guy doesn’t put up at least 1,000 yards in 2012 I’ll be shocked.  Just over 1,000 yards should be enough to put him in the top ten anyway.

See the next page to see who rounds out our top ten and who will take the rushing title!

Ugh.

Alas, it wasn’t to be so.  Perhaps the Jags just didn’t want a receiver with a DUI from 2006 on his record?  Perhaps a five year deal seemed too long for a man that may not do well in the system.  Or perhaps the Jaguars just didn’t feel like paying Jackson $55,555,555 for five years?

Yes, that does sound like a ludicrous number.  It also sounds like $11,111,111 over five years, with $26 guaranteed. Yeah, that’s a chunk of cash.

We’ll see if Josh Freeman can make use of Jackson over in Tampa.  My money is that he can’t and that VJax will be gone in a couple years, off to another team willing to tak a shot and see if he’s worth the money.

But for now the Jaguars are, once again, without a true #1 receiver and it’s looking like all of the potential free agent #1s will be gone shortly.

Good thing the draft comes after free agency this year.  Otherwise I’d be all about getting depressed on this stuff.

- Luke N. Sims

Or we, the fans, are completely aloof as to the needs of the team.

John Oehser had it right when he wrote,

Outside owner Shad Khan and General Manager Gene Smith, no one knows for sure – and that’s pretty much par for the NFL course.

Marshall, we weren't even interested and I still miss you! Source: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

It was, and still is, the opinion of this writer that the Jaguars are going to pursue a better receiving corps in free agency.  That said a number of very good receivers have come off the board.  Of these, Stevie Johnson (resigned with Bills a week before free agency), Marques Colston (signed hours before free agency began), Vincent Jackson (signed with Tampa Bay), Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan (signed with the Washington Redskins), Randy Moss (signed with San Francisco), and a surprise Brandon Marshall trade from Miami to Chicago for two third round picks in 2012 and 2013 respectively.

The Jags have hardly been mentioned amongst all of this hullabaloo.

ESPN’s AFC South blogger Paul Kuharsky recently mentioned that he thinks the Jags will still try to make a play for Mario Williams.  Not only does he think that they will, he thinks that they should.  Who else thinks that they should?  All of Jaguar nation.  Except maybe the front office.

While no word has come out of Shahid Khan or Gene Smith yet (after all, they like to keep things quiet), we, the Jaguars faithful, have got to begin wondering just what game the Jaguars are playing at.

It’s common knowledge that the goal for the team is to build through the draft.  But to what end?  Consistently, Gene Smith has traded up with picks to grab players he finds alluring.  I agree with the strategy on the whole, but none of the players being developed with those picks have any market value to trade for more picks to add more blood and more development to the young Jaguars roster.

And beyond all that, at the Jaguars’ greatest position of need, Gene Smith has not performed well.  Here at B&T, we outlined just how poorly he has done.  Are we to assume that the Jaguars are actually pleased with their current receiving corps?   Has Jarrett Dillard made his way off the injury cart enough make a play?  Will Mike Thomas be forced out of the slot due to underperformance yet again?  What about past attempts?  Did Jason Hill suddenly become the deep threat we all dreamed of?

The only assumption I can make based on the complete lack of depth, and action to fit that depth, at wide receiver is that the Jaguars are going to make “plays” again in the draft.  Plays for the likes of Justin Blackmon perhaps?

But at what cost?

It’s assumed picks will probably be involved in order to trade up an nab the star wide receiver from Oklahoma State.  Or perhaps there will be a move to trade back and acquire as many mediocre talents at wide out that we possibly can?

I’m not really certain.

In fact I’m straight up confused.

If anybody has any light whatsoever on this, please, please shine it my way.  Nay, shine it toward all of the fans.  Because as much as I’m behind Gene Smith, I just can’t make heads nor tails of his actions in free agency thus far.

- Luke N. Sims