Will Arian Foster take the Rushing Title in 2012? Source: US-Presswire

While there will inevitably be someone who comes out of nowhere to put up some big numbers like Arian Foster has done, who really has a shot at taking home the title and being the “best running back” in 2012.  For purposes of discussion, the best running back will be defined as the most yards on the ground in a season (the same qualification for running backs to win the rushing title).

So, who will it be?  A rebounding Adrian Peterson?  A no longer disgruntled Chris Johnson?  How about Ben Tate rather than Foster?  Here are the top ten from last year:

1. Maurice Jones-Drew: 1,606 yards
2. Ray Rice: 1,364 yards
3. Michael Turner: 1,340 yards
4. LeSean McCoy: 1,309 yards
5. Arian Foster: 1,224 yards
6. Frank Gore: 1,211 yards
7. Marshawn Lynch: 1,204 yards
8. Willis McGahee: 1,199 yards
9. Steven Jackson: 1,145 yards
10. Ryan Matthews, 1,091 yards

Of the top ten from last year, five were in the top ten from 2010: Maurice Jones-Drew (5th), Ray Rice (10th), Michael Turner (3rd – talk about consistent!), Arian Foster (1st), and Steven Jackson (8th).  The players who didn’t repeat?  Adrian Peterson (6th), Jamaal Charles (2nd), Chris Johnson (4th), Rashard Mendenhall (7th), and Ahmad Bradshaw (9th).

Of the five who have repeated the past two years (some longer than that), I think it is safe to say that Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, Arian Foster, and Michael Turner will be back in the top ten for 2012.  As much as I like Steven Jackson (and I like him a lot!) I don’t see him replicating his success in 2012 with a revamped offense, new head coach, and some serious wear and tear on his body (the guy averaged 20 attempts per game the past three seasons and has had injury issues).

Look for San Fran's Frank Gore to be Limited by Defenses as they make the Niners pass to beat them. Source: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE

With the assumption that four of our top ten spots will be filled, who can we expect to join them?  From last year’s top ten, I find that the most probable returns for 2012 will be Ryan Matthews and LeSean McCoy.  McCoy has proven he will be a versatile threat on every down and he is featured in a lot of plays under Andy Reid.  Matthews will be forced into taking more handoffs with the departure of wide receiver Vincent Jackson to Tampa Bay and will carry a much bigger burden of the offense.  Matthews stepped it up last year by 21 yards per game and an increase of only two more attempts per game.  The guy is finally filling LaDainian Tomlinson’s shoes.

Right now, our list is sitting with six players on it.  All of whom have been in the top ten this past year.  Who gets the final four slots?  Who will round out the top ten in the competition for the rushing title?  For that, I turn my attention to the yards per attempt statistics for last year.  Of the running backs who are already in our six defined spots, none of them are in the top ten for yards per attempt (though the statistics do include quarterbacks Cam Newton and Tim Tebow).  Of the top ten in yards per attempt, two teams (Buffalo and Carolina) have two running backs in average yards per attempt.  C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson represent Buffalo, and DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart represent Carolina – as does Cam Newton.

I expect that the loads on both sides will continue to be split amongst multiple players, though if Williams is injured again – as his history suggests he may be – I fully expect that Stewart could slip into the top ten to round out the bottom.  And with Cam Newton focusing more on passing rather than running, look for Stewart’s attempts per game to increase. Unfortunately for Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, I don’t expect either of them to outdistance the other in 2012.  Especially with Spiller expected to have a very good year.  Both players will be successful, of this I have no doubt, but neither will be able to set such a pace that the team abandons its two-headed monster of a backfield.

Right now, this is how our top ten looks (with no rankings applied)

• Maurice Jones-Drew
• Ray Rice
• Arian Foster
• Michael Turner
• LeSean McCoy
• Ryan Matthews
• Jonathan Stewart

Nothing like a knee injury to make you want to succeed next year. Source: Geoff Burke-US PRESSWIRE

I think it is about time we took a look at Adrian Peterson.  Adrian Peterson injured himself in the 12th game of the season last year and is still working on coming back full force.  But in 12 games, he put up 970 yards.  That’s 80.8 yards per game (good enough for 8th on the list of yards per game).  Will AP be back in time for the start of the season?  Maybe.  But he’ll be back at some point.  And when he returns, he’ll be hungry.  If the guy doesn’t put up at least 1,000 yards in 2012 I’ll be shocked.  Just over 1,000 yards should be enough to put him in the top ten anyway.

See the next page to see who rounds out our top ten and who will take the rushing title!

The year was 2010 and the first sports season of the new decade, baseball season, was amongst us.  I’ve never been much of a baseball fan, but for some reason I continue to partake in the tomfoolery that is fantasy baseball with my high school buddies.  With my fantasy baseball draft impending, I focused on sleepers for the upcoming season and I had one particular player in mind: Chris Davis.  Yes, the same Chris Davis that hit .239 in 113 games in 2009. The same Chris Davis that got sent down to Triple-A halfway through that 2009 season, but came back in August sporting a .308 average and that nasty hitter’s touch that every fantasy baseball GM (and actual baseball GM) dreams about.  But it wasn’t just the great minors numbers or the bounce-back he showed in 2009 that confirmed to me that he was the sleeper to pick in 2010.  Plus, he was batting .550 during and looking like an absolute stud-ebaker. His strikeouts were down, his batting average was up, his hits were still home-running – he was a lock of a bounce-back candidate.

A lock to go right back down to Triple-A.  He lasted just 120 at-bats, batting just .192 and hitting only 1 HR in the process.

Chris Davis, preparing not to hit. Source: Jim Cowsert-US PRESSWIRE

For those of you that care less about baseball than I do (which is saying something, believe me), the point of this story may not be clear to you, but for anyone that jumped on the training camp hype from last year (Kellen Winslow, or god forbid, Cecil Shorts III), you know what I’m talking about.  Now, it’s not that training camp hype is all bad.  Training camp hype allowed me to zero in on Jimmy Graham last year, for one.  But, it’s important to look at how NFL players fit with their teams, the depth of the position on those teams, and what broader contexts may affect their play.  And there’s no better group of players to do that with than NFL rookies, so I’m going to hone in on 10 rookies that can make a huge impact this year for their teams, both real and fantasy.

Trent Richardson: Current OTA Stud. Future Fantasy Stud? Source: Eric P. Mull-USPRESSWIRE

Trent Richardson, RB, Cleveland Browns

The fantasy community can sure jump on an impact rookie running back right away.  Touted by everyone’s mother as the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson, T-Rich has the potential to deliver top 5 RB numbers when it’s all said and done, and is valuated as such.  Projected to go anywhere between the end of round 1 and the beginning of round 2, the excitement over Richardson is reminiscent of the excitement over other young running backs that ended up being fantasy busts in their first year with the starting gig – the Ryan Matthews and Shonn Greenes of the fantasy world.  Now, let’s not get it twisted – Richardson is neither Matthews nor Shonn Greene, and that’s a good thing (well, Matthews is actually good now, but that’s beside the point).  Yet, there is still plenty to be concerned about with Richardson.  The consistent 8-man fronts he’s going to face because of his QB situation, the offensive line which produced a 28^th ranked rushing attack last year, the AFC North (I know Cincinnati has Reggie Nelson who’ll probably give up a long run or two to Richardson, but Baltimore and Pittsburgh will make sure it’s not nearly that easy), and simply making the transition as an NFL rookie.  Can he still produce top 10 RB numbers? Absolutely.  But I’ll let you spend the first round pick on him.

Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins

RGIII comes into the league one year after Cam “The Man” Newton took fantasy football by storm, and it’ll show.  The recent success of running quarterbacks (Vick, Cam, Tebow) will make fantasy owners jump the gun on RGIII, but his situation should come under heavy scrutiny.  The receiving corps of Pierre Garcon, Josh Morgan, and Santana Moss should be more than serviceable, but still doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, and the pass rush heavy NFC East should be a huge concern, both for RGIII’s production and health.  However, it’s pretty hard to argue that he isn’t a perfect fit for Mike Shanahan’s bootleg offense (if Jake Plummer could do it, RGIII will eventually excel at it), so if you caught the short end of the stick when drafting your first QB, take a flyer on the new face of DC (sorry Barack).

Michael Floyd, wishing he had a better quarterback. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE

Michael Floyd, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Big, fast, strong, and fairly polished for a rookie receiver.  Floyd has the tools to make an impact from day 1, which is one of the reasons why he was the 13^th pick in this year’s draft.  And he’ll never be double covered.  Yeah, playing alongside a top 3 WR has its benefits. So why does he show up third on this list?  Kevin Kolb.  Or John Skelton.  Whoever you think will actually win the starting QB job.  Both have big enough arms, but both also have an incredibly infuriating tendency to check-down instead of going through their progressions.  So, if Floyd is running 7 yard hitches, he might have a shot at a good season with either of those two at QB, but if you’re going to take a flyer on a receiver as your draft comes to a close, he’s the guy you should think of.

Alshon Jeffrey, WR, Bears

Boy, did Christmas come early for Jay Cutler or what? While Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall are both more possession-receiver types, they fill a huge need for the Bears and that passing offense.  Cutler’s got the gun to sling it to Jeffrey anywhere on the field, and while Marshall isn’t Larry Fitzgerald, he’ll still command enough attention to give Jeffrey his chances.  Now, you can’t ignore the offensive line issues, mostly because it hasn’t improved at all from a personnel basis, but in a league of measurables, Jeffrey has the size, strength, and jumping ability to be exactly what the Bears and Jay Cutler are looking for on third downs and more.

Hopefully we'll be smiling all season long. Source: Phil Sears-US PRESSWIRE

Justin Blackmon, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

The two-time Biletnikoff Award winner has the best opportunity of any WR in the draft to make an impact.  He’s an X receiver with nowhere close to another comparable receiver as far as talent on this roster, and he may have just enough help between MJD, Laurent Robinson, Marcedes Lewis, and Mike Thomas to keep defenses from honing in on him and giving Blaine a true number 1 receiver.  The negatives, however, are plenty.  The QB play from last year, the offensive line play from last year, the play from Marcedes Lewis and Mike Thomas from last year, the work he’ll need to put in with regards to route running and expanding his route tree.  But hey, with Jerry Sullivan on our side, are you going to be the one to bet against him?  Just don’t overpay come draft day.

Reuben Randle, WR, New York Giants

The truth of the matter with Randle is, I don’t know if the Giants found their Manningham replacement like everyone says they did.  He was great value where he was picked, and he’s a solid addition to an already solid WR corps.  Unlike some teams, like the 2011 Jaguars, that couldn’t put out one quality fantasy pass catcher, the 2011 Giants showed that, like the Packers, they can put out a multitude of quality WR/TE pass catchers.  Randle has a great quarterback and the opportunity to make an impact, and for a non-first round rookie, that’s all you can really ask for.

Why So Serious, Childs? Source: Bruce Kluckhohn-US PRESSWIRE

Greg Childs, WR, Minnesota Vikings

When you think of the prototypical X receiver, you think of size, speed, strength, jumping ability, and confidence.  You think of the best WR on his team.  But, what you don’t think of is the 134^th pick in the draft.  The self-proclaimed “steal of the draft”, Childs was the most productive of the three Arkansas WRs taken in this year’s draft and arguably the most athletic.  He’s coming off an injury, but he sure looked good at his pro day.  Plus, he fills a huge need for the Vikings, who have the perfect slot receiver but are sorely missing a true number 1 to help out Christian Ponder.

Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Bucs

He’s got a huge opportunity, and you know the new Bucs coaching staff is going to side with him over LaGarrett Blount.  But, they’re very similar backs in terms of style, so it’s really going to be a matter of who produces when it gets down to it.  He’s got as good an opportunity as any running back not named Trent Richardson.

Andrew Luck clearly didn't get the uniform color memo for team photos. Source: Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts

Best QB prospect since Peyton Manning?  Joining the worst team since the 1976 Bucs who went 0-14?  Okay, that might be overkill, but you get the point.  The Colts did a good job retaining some of their impact players, despite their age, and won’t be as bad this year as they were last year.  That being said, Luck’ll need more than Reggie Wayne and a rookie TE to succeed.  He’ll have his chances this year, so I’d put him in solid QB2 range.

Ronnie Hillman, RB, Denver Broncos

Who?  The backup to a 31 year old running back with a history of knee issues.  The running back who’ll play in the same backfield as the guy that made Joseph Addai look like a stud.  A super fast twitch athlete who may struggle early on because of the uptick in competition from San Diego State, he’s incredibly quick, patient, and despite his size, has goal line capabilities.  He’ll be fighting a former first round pick in Knowshon Moreno for the backup spot when the season starts, but the fight won’t be a fair one, and not in the way you might think.  Moreno has come close to wearing out his welcome in Denver and is coming off of ACL surgery.

Honorable Mentions:

Ryan Broyles, WR, Detroit Lions

Incredible hands, incredible quickness.  He’ll need both if he’s going to contribute, but he sure has the talent to do so.  Does he get the quickness back after November ACL surgery?  Keep tabs on your league’s waiver wire.

David Wilson, RB, New York Giants

The Giants just put out running backs, and with the injury history of Ammad Bradshaw, you have to assume that the former Hokie is in the best possible situation to succeed.  He’s a fast-twitch athlete in the fastest of senses, and he’s got good enough vision to burst through the holes that the Giants O-line will produce.  His main hindrance will be getting on the field, especially due to his poor pass blocking (and we know Tom Coughlin won’t stand for that), but with Bradshaw’s injury history and Wilson’s talents, I’ll sign off on taking a late round flyer on him.

Agreements, Disagreements, and other great fantasy fits? Leave them in the comments!

– Zain

That kiss is blown toward Jacksonville, just in case you were wondering. Source: Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

Laurent Robinson, Aaron Ross, even Lee Evans make the Jaguars a considerably more “sexy” team in the eyes of the fans and the league.  Maybe not Kate Upton sexy, but definitely much better looking.  Laurent Robinson isn’t quite Larry Fitzgerald or Julio Jones, but he has some skills, runs his routes well, and fills a very big need for the Jaguars.  Ross adds great depth or starter talent at the outside corner spot, and Evans could have a resurgence as a wide receiver.  That, or he will provide a mentorship role for the younger receivers on the squad (read: every receiver the Jags have).

Definitely not the sexiest free agency period, but combine it with the draft, and suddenly the Jags look like a 10.

Justin Blackmon was the sexiest pick of the draft.  Period.  Andrew Luck and RGIII were all but set at #1 and #2 but neither of them were picked because they were the sexiest player in the class (though RGIII came close), they filled needs for the Colts and Redskins and are very good quarterbacks.  Beyond that, not much.  Trent Richardson is a bruiser, but some questioned whether he should have been a top five or ten pick.  Matt Kalil is a lineman, great pick, but nothing flashy.

Then you have Blackmon.

Seriously, that look is kind of frightening if you're opposite him. WAY too much focus! Source: Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

The kid has some serious game.  He catches the ball superbly, he has great body control and balance, and his ability to outplay defenders should not be underestimated.  In college he lit of scoreboards and highlight reels.  He made Brandon Weeden look like an All-Pro quarterback at Oklahoma State.  He has an easy smile, he’s easy to get along with by all accounts, and he has a cool confidence that just oozes out of him whether he is on the field or in a suit doing a presser.

The Jags followed Blackmon up with DE Andre Branch.  Branch is the kind of guy you want on your team because you know that whoever he runs into he is going to punish.  If he doesn’t get to the quarterback, he is going to make the opposing lineman wish he’d switch to the side of the line.  He’ll make the opposition want to take a breather.  Not the top ranked defensive end or defensive line talent in the draft, Branch looks and acts the part of a top NFL talent.  Watch some of his college tape, he’s got a sexiness that is only seen on the field.

Even if you don’t like picks 3-6 (we didn’t have a fourth rounder), the first two plus free agency will bring some serious attention to Jacksonville.  Maybe this year the Jags won’t be the small market team experiencing fan loyalty problems in Flordia.

Maybe this year the Jags are bringing sexy back (yeah).

- Luke N. Sims