At least Carr got a ring... Source: Chris Morrison-US PRESSWIRE

I’m not blaming David Carr or Bob McNair, but the Texans have failed to produce a winner and one year of success (a year with a very bemused Colts team) does not suddenly make the team a perennial playoff lock.  Personally, I think it all relates back to head coach Gary Kubiak.

A couple years ago, Kubiak’s job was on the line.  Many sports pundits openly said he was bound to lose his job and that it may be time for Houston to transition away from the ex-quarterback and focus on building a more complete team.  Having only one winning season in 2009 when the team went 9-7 and missed the playoffs, the team did not look to be heading toward success until the 2011 breakout that saw the team go 10-6, a full four more victories than their 2010 total (a 6-10 season that tied Kubiak’s worst).

So, with things seeming to look up, why am I hard on Kubiak?  Because it took the brilliance of Wade Phillips to bring the team to the playoffs.

Kubiak can, and has, built a superb offense.  His downside is his defense.  Phillips came in after being excused in Dallas and turned the Texans into a winner.  But even with a very, very good defense the team still only managed to win one more game than they did in 2009.  It could be extrapolated that the team would have been better with Matt Schaub under center, and I agree.  But that is a player, not scheming or coaching.

For a rookie, he did pretty damn well. Source: US-Presswire

T.J. Yates – a man some here at B&T thought would be drafted higher than the fifth round – is a decent player, one of the league’s greatest receivers plays in Houston, a superb pair of backs rush the ball, and a very strong crop of defensive players have responded well to good coaching from Phillips.

Meanwhile, Bill Belichick and Tom Coughlin are turning no-names into legends and changing the way the game is played.  John Harbaugh is inspiring his players to heights far beyond their potential in Baltimore.  The Steelers are making waves with players who have been around the block a few too many times.  And the Broncos got by with a quarterback who could only play in the fourth quarter.

I like the Texans, they should have won the Super Bowl in 2011 with a healthy Matt Schaub.  The team has a roster that is stronger than most any other team you match it against.  But the team is being limited by a head coach who has worked hard at building a good offense but probably can’t sustain it.  The team relies too much on its players and too little on its coach to be successful over the longer term.

I’m not going to say the team won’t be tough to beat.  But look for a drop similar to the 2010 season for the Texans.  And when it’s all said and done I’ll be pointing at Kubiak and thinking of a potential Houston dynasty that could have been in the AFC South.

- Luke N. Sims

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Andrew Luck is the Future in Indy. Source: Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

We’ll start with the obvious: The Indianapolis Colts don’t want Peyton Manning.  Yes, this is a shocker for me too.  False, it’s not.  The Colts are in a transition period, they are moving past the Manning era and the post-Manning era has no room for Manning.  Andrew Luck is the future.  The past chapters are closed.  Really, I don’t think I can say this is any more ways.  It’s been the most talked about thing since it was revealed that Peyton wouldn’t be back to play at all during 2011.

The Houston Texans are the second least likely team in the AFC South to pursue Manning’s services.  The Texans, the team I think should have had a Superbowl last year, have a superb quarterback in Matt Schaub and a very capable, young backup in T.J. Yates.  They’ve shown they can win because their schemes fit their personnel and their revamped defense is able to hand with the best of them.

The Tennessee Titans are sitting rather pretty right now at quarterback.  Matt Hasselbeck had a resurgence in 2011 and was able to help groom the quarterback of the future, Jake Locker.  Look for Locker to be starting at some point in the 2012 season, if not on opening day.  The Titans are happy with who they have behind center and there really hasn’t been much of an outcry from the Tennessee faithful to pursue Manning.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are more than happy with Blaine Gabbert.  In fact they think that they’re set.  Unfortunately, Gabbert was not able to sit behind a healthy David Garrard to learn how to play the position at the NFL level for a year.  Instead he was thrust into the starting position, despite being the youngest quarterback in the league.  Gabbert was mediocre and the passing offense was horrendous.  Due to this, many Jaguars fans are hyped about the potential to land Manning.  However, the Jags have played it safe in the past.  They’ve settled in with their franchise quarterback, they are intent on acquiring offensive pieces to complement him, and they aren’t looking to realign their depth chart and undermine the confidence of their young quarterback in order to see if Peyton’s neck has two more years left in him.  The impracticality of the move practically overwhelms the impressive stat sheet that Manning has.

There are two things to take away from realizing that Peyton won’t be playing in the AFC South: 1) Jacksonville will have another growing year with Blaine Gabbert, 2) The Jags won’t have to play Peyton Manning twice a year.

To me, those both look like positives.

- Luke N. Sims

For years the Texans were the joke of the AFC South.  Heck, they were the joke of the NFL.  Ok, maybe not that bad, the Lions were still playing then too.  But this year they finally came alive and lived up to the potential that had been building for the past three seasons.  I recently said that Houston should have won the Superbowl this past year, and would have, if they had Matt Schaub under center.  It’s really unfortunate that they were forced to start a rookie, T.J. Yates, that wasn’t expected to contribute for a very long time, if ever at all.

The Texans are loaded.  They have a very good receiving corps in Andre Johnson (arguably the best receiver in the NFL), Kevin Walter, and Jacoby Jones; a strong (and under-appreciated) tight end in Owen Daniels; Matt Schaub (would he have hit 5,000 yards last year?); and a strong tandem running duo in Arian Foster and Ben Tate.

Oh, and that was just the offense.

Yes, I did just say you were awesome. Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

This past year, the perennial achilles heel of the Texans was fixed by Wade Phillips and his transition to the 3-4.  Suddenly the defensive backs knew how to cover wide receivers, the outside linebackers were creating pressure, the front three held their gaps and allowed plays to be made, and the team was able to come together to create turnovers and capitalize on them through the explosive offense.  J.J. Watt, Brooks Reed, Brian Cushing, Mario Williams, Johnathan Joseph, everyone has become a star in the new system.

They appear almost completely dominant.

So how can the Jags beat the Texans in 2012?

• Pass Often – In the Texans’ seven losses, counting playoffs, during the 2011 season, five of them occurred in games where the opponent attempted 33 or more pass attempts.  The outliers being the Panthers with Cam Newton (166 yards rushing from their unique offense), and the second game against the Ravens in the playoffs.  Even when a team was inefficient in passing, like the Raiders (15 of 35 for 190 yards), the opposition still manages to win.  It may be because the defensive backfield of the Texans isn’t as stellar as their front seven, or it may just be that the constant running back and forth is exhausting for a defense that isn’t conditioned well enough.  Who knows?  But even when not efficient, it appears to work.  Even the anemic Colts offense won their first game agains the Texans behind 41 pass attempts, only completing 23 of them.
• Pass Efficiently – The teams that beat the Texans, usually, had efficient passing games.  The Raiders, when they connected, brought themselves into field goal range (Janikowski had four in the game), the Saints rocked a 70% completion percentage, Joe Flacco put up 60% in the regular season, and even the Colts managed above 50%.  Meanwhile, Blaine Gabbert completed 30% and 50% in his two match-ups against Houston.  The only team to beat Houston while completing below 50% of their passes was Oakland, and they managed to set up their special teams to win in that game, despite the 416 passing yards the Texans put up.
• Get Scobee Kicking – Janikowski was able to lead the Raiders to victory behind four field goals.  But even more impressive is the 92% of kicks that Scobee sends through the uprights.  He only missed two kicks all year, both above forty yards away and one beyond fifty.  The team needs to take points when it can, and if the offense isn’t working, it’s worth sending out the kicker to give it a go.  If he misses, the defense will have to be relied on, but really Scobee has proven he is a crutch that the Jags can lean on when need be.

Is it possible that this is all a long shot?  Of course.  But the Jags have two games a year to focus solely on the Texans.  Worst case, they get swept by Houston again.  But I’d go out swingin’.  Maybe the defense won’t be as strong in 2012, or maybe Maurice Jones-Drew won’t be nursing a secret injury.  A lot of things could change.

I’m counting on Blaine Gabbert’s arm to pull us out of the hole.

- Luke N. Sims