Feb 21, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Central Michigan offensive lineman Eric Fisher speaks at a press conference during the 2013 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Thus, Caldwell’s options start with Eric Fisher, the perfect zone-blocking LT prospect for a team that has to make a tough decision about whether or not to pay Eugene Monroe top-10 LT money after next season.  We initially brought up the idea of the Jaguars taking a LT back in February here on B&T as part of the evolution of the offensive line against the varied defensive fronts and blitzes that quarterbacks see nowadays.  Much of this was just speculation, but now the idea has gained steam – especially based upon recent data compiled by Pro Football Focus on the how the play of quarterbacks varies based upon where they see pressure.  But the real question is, can the Jaguars afford to spend two top-10 picks on offensive linemen?  Monroe has become a top-10 player at his position, and the Jaguars would expect no less from Fisher.  But for a team that has so many holes, is that the biggest impact they can make when picking in the top 5?  Another thing to consider, however, is that this pick isn’t purely a luxury pick – it’s a security pick as well.  Not only is Fisher likely the most complete prospect in the draft at this point – he easily led all offensive linemen in Pass Blocker Rating, but he also makes sense doubly as Eugene Monroe is only under contract for one more year.  Caldwell has made cheap, young signings his MO, and while Monroe is a top-10 player at his position, he will command significant money next offseason, and thus there’s no guarantee that he actually gets re-signed by the Jaguars.  Picking Fisher at #2 has the potential to solidify the line for years to come if they keep Monroe.  If they don’t, it still gives them the opportunity to save that money they would’ve given to Monroe over the long-term, solidify RT for a year, and swap Monroe out for a player who is not only four years younger but also a perfect fit in the Jaguars’ new zone-blocking scheme.

Feb 25, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Utah Utes defensive lineman Star Lotulelei who was not medically cleared to workout due to a medical heart condition watches the workouts from the side during the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Next up is Star Lotulelei, a DT/DE prospect who has to have Gus Bradley and Todd Wash salivating with his potential.  The most versatile and polished defensive lineman in this draft, Lotulelei could hypothetically line up at three out of the four positions on the new Jaguars defensive line – the strong-side DE/5-technique, nose tackle/1-tecnique, or the under-tackle/3-technique, who is the premier interior rusher on the d-line (and the most likely position for the Jaguars potential new Star).  That type of scheme versatility in arguably the cleanest prospect in the draft – one who  has consistently been considered a top-10 pick dating back to last season - has to be incredibly enticing for a Jaguars coaching staff that may fail to see any impact defensive linemen on their roster.  But Lotulelei’s not just a jack-of-all-trades DT– he led all interior defensive linemen in Pass Rusher Rating, a statistic that incorporates sacks, QB hits, hurries, pass rushing turnovers, and pass rush penalties generated, all as a function of the number of pass rushing snaps.  Moreover, his rating was even higher than that of interior sack-artist Ndamukong Suh when he entered the draft.  When you consider the unproven commodities the Jaguars have manning those positions on their defensive line currently (Alualu, Smith, Marks, Miller, Mincey), even the most casual of fans realizes that the Jaguars are in need of a significant upgrade, especially given the injury history of guys like Alualu and Smith.

Feb 23, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Oregon Ducks defensive lineman Dion Jordan speaks at a press conference during the 2013 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Credit: Pat Lovell-USA TODAY Sports

The LEO has been a popular topic of conversation this offseason, and no player fits the LEO in this draft better than Dion Jordan.  He’s incredibly quick, flexible, long, and athletic.  Moreover, his coverage skills add a dimension of versatility that is rarely seen from a player at his position and/or of his size.  Jordan was a popular “trade-back” pick amongst Jaguar fans early in the offseason, but his stock has skyrocketed through the roof since the NFL combine.  This is partially due to the Combine itself – it measures “measurables” – pure, unadulterated athleticism.  This is the type of forum where Jordan has probably excelled all his life.  But even more than this, he showcased some of those unique coverage skills during the Combine as well.  However, what doesn’t get discussed as much with Jordan is the lack of production he’s shown during the course of his college career.  I mean, Jarvis Jones had more sacks in the SEC this past year than Jordan did in his last two years.  Jordan apologists will point to the fact that he dropped into coverage more often than a guy with his pass rush potential likely should’ve, and they may also point out that Jordan has only spent two years at defensive end.  However, his production is almost identical to the other prototypical LEO in the draft, Barkevious Mingo – who got his production in the SEC against the likes of Luke Joeckel and DJ Fluker.  In fact, amongst all the top DE/OLBs, Jordan had the easiest “strength of schedule” – that is, he got his sacks against the worst pass protecting teams.   Pro Football Focus does a pretty good breakdown of Mingo and Jordan, distinguishing Mingo as the “creator” of the two and Jordan as the “reactor.”  However, Jordan also had the highest Pass Rusher Rating of any DE/OLB not named Jarvis Jones in this draft, posting a PRR almost twice as high as Mingo’s (without the luxury of a 1^st-2^nd round DE on the other side of his line, to boot).  Regardless of what you think about Jordan’s production – and of the three potential Jaguars picked at #2, he does have the most production questions – there’s no doubt that he is a perfect fit as the LEO in Gus Bradley’s defense.

I have little doubt that all three of these players are truly rare talents at their respective positions – particularly due to their elite athleticism for their size.  However, aside from their physical talents, we also have to consider the depth of this year’s draft.  Judging from ESPN / Scouts Inc’s draft tiers, there’s not a whole lot of variation between the amount of 1^st or 2^nd round OTs (6), DTs (9), and LEO eligible DEs/OLBs (9).  Of these positions, it’s probably hardest to get a true pass-protecting tackle outside of the first round (and exponentially harder as you get further away from the top 10).  Yet, this is also the position that the Jaguars are strongest at, with Monroe already at LT, and more than a few RTs available in the draft and free agency.  At the end of the day, it’s hard not to see how a DT or a LEO wouldn’t be more valuable to the Jaguars in the short term.  But I have no doubt Caldwell is thinking about the long-term when he makes this pick, so much of it will depend on how Eugene Monroe fits into the long-term plan.  For now, on the day before the draft, I believe that the Jaguars pass on both defensive players for a “luxury” pick at OT – and I have no doubt that Eric Fisher will be worthy of the second overall pick for years to come.

– Zain Gowani

Before we start for real, let’s talk methodology.  What I’ve done is picked nine of Mel Kiper’s Big Boards throughout the year.  The first was created right before the commencement of the college season.  The next six that were picked took place during the college season (approximately one per month), including a final one that was dated the week after the BCS title game.  Finally, three more were chosen to demarcate the pre-draft season: one that marked the beginning of pre-draft talk in January (wasn’t sure whether to include this one, but decided to just to take a step back away from all the bowl games), a post-combine Big Board, and post-pro day Big Board.  On these Big Boards, I tracked the top 10 players for each one, in addition to the Big Board position of other prospects we’d consider “elite” in this year’s draft if applicable.  Finally, I threw in some numbers and messed with some calculations and tada, a blog post!

“Matt Barkley, how do you feel about your precipitous fall from the top of Mel Kiper’s Big Board?” Source: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Mel Kiper put out the first Big Board for this year’s draft on August 29, 2012.  With no games having been played yet, these rankings are purely projection of the results of the previous season, weighed most heavily towards the end of the previous season.  As you might guess, Matt Barkley sits atop the Big Board, a player Kiper says would’ve been a “likely bet” to go #2 after Andrew Luck.  If those two went 1 and 2, would RG III have been in Black & Teal?  Isn’t that something to ponder… But back to the Big Board.  In August, the college preseason expectations were about as high for some prospects as they are now.  Chance Warmack and Star Lotulelei were sitting at #8 and #9 overall respectively.  You have to feel good about those guys – that based on the previous season, there were high hopes for them going into this season, and overall they must’ve met those expectations.

But there’s more to like than that, because Warmack and Lotulelei have maintained remarkable consistency over the year on the Big Board.  Lotulelei has been a fixture on the Big Board – he was the only player that has been on every Big Board I chose (and no, that was not rigged in any way, shape, or form), and once he got in the top 5 on the September Big Board, he only dropped out of it once, when he dropped to #8 overall at the end of February when the Combine revealed his previously undiagnosed heart condition.  Lotulelei has been cleared since then and worked out at his Pro Day.  He currently sits at #7 overall.  Chance Warmack was barely outshined by Lotulelei this year on the Big Board.  While Lotulelei sat comfortably in the top 10 on every Big Board chosen, Warmack was right there with him… except for in one.  In the latest Big Board, Warmack has slipped to… wait for it… #11 overall, breaking a remarkable feat of consistency that only Lotulelei could surpass.  There’s mad love for Warmack on this site, and seemingly rightfully so.

Other top prospects in the August Big Board have slipped a little since their original Big Board appearance but have maintained their place in the rankings overall.  Jarvis Jones started the Big Board at #2 and was a fixture atop it for the next 7 Big Boards I used.  That’s right, he performed the same feat Chance Warmack did – make the Big Board Top 10 eight out of nine times, but in the process, he was #1 on the Big Board seven of those times after starting on the Big Board at #2!  Also like Warmack, he slipped up in the latest Big Board, as even Kiper’s undeniable man-crush on Jones couldn’t outweigh the medical concerns and poor Pro Day that have plagued Jones’s draft stock.  Barkevious Mingo, believe it or not, has been the most stable fixture at DE on Kiper’s Big Board.  The pre-season expectations for Mingo were high, as Mingo started the first Big Board at the #3 overall spot.  However, since then he’s settled in between #6-#8 overall, and only dropping out of the top 10… to #11 overall once at the end of January.  Mingo’s status on the Big Board was likely boosted early on by his pre-season projections and later on, by his Combine performance. Even still, seeing consistency from a player too often labeled as inconsistent on the field can only be a positive thing.

You may be wondering where all the top prospects on the original Big Board were.  Moreover, you may be wondering about the top players at certain positions the Jaguars will highly be considering at #2 overall – guys like Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher, Dion Jordan, Geno Smith, Sharrif Floyd, Dee Milliner, Ezekiel Ansah.  The answer, surprisingly, is nowhere to be found.  Besides Joeckel, who sat at #12 overall on the original Big Board, none of the aforementioned prospects were anywhere on the original Big Board, which functions as Mel Kiper’s ranking of the top 25 players in college football.    In fact, besides Joeckel, not one  of those players makes the top 10 of Mel Kiper’s  Big Board until Dee Milliner gets to #10 overall in the Big Board following the BCS title game.  In addition, of these players, only Milliner (#6) and Eric Fisher (#9) actually make the Big Board top 10 before the Combine is held.  For the rest of these players, how much of their rise is based on game tape evaluation versus working out in shorts and a t-shirt? Makes you wonder doesn’t it…

Dee “Dark horse” Milliner looking to make move on up to #2 overall. Source: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

But the news shouldn’t be completely concerning.  Over the course of the year, some players did make a progressive rise on the Big Board, with Milliner and Fisher highlighting that group.   Milliner made his first appearance on the second Big Board (September) I tracked, at #15 overall.  Once he got on, Milliner wouldn’t let himself be taken off, as he remained a fixture in the top 15 until January, when the BCS title game vaulted him into the top 10 (#10).  Since then, Luke Joeckel, Star Lotulelei, Chance Warmack, and Milliner are the only players to maintain a top 10 position on the Big Board since the college season, and furthermore, has been the only one of those players to maintain his place or move up on the Big Board every month since then.  Despite all the talk of Milliner being a lesser prospect than the top 10 cornerbacks taken in previous drafts, he’s been consistently moving up the Big Board all year – he currently sits at #4 overall.

Eric Fisher got an even later start on the Big Board, but once he got on, he never dropped a single spot.  As impressive as Milliner’s run up the Big Board was, no one has had as impressive of a rise as Fisher.  He didn’t  make his way onto the Big Board until November (#21 overall), but has steadily and consistently risen from there to his current place, #2 overall.  Most of us didn’t hear about Fisher until his impressive Senior Bowl week in late January, but during the course of the season, he impressed Kiper enough for Kiper to put him at #13 overall in his end-of-the-season Big Board before the Senior Bowl.  Score one for the head draftnik!

Sharrif Floyd, Dion Jordan, and Ezekial Ansah have all been late bloomers to the Big Board.  Although Floyd made his first appearance in the top 25 in September (#20), he didn’t actually stick until the December Big Board (#23).  Dion Jordan and Ezekiel Ansah both made their initial appearances on the January Big Board at the end of the college season but have skyrocketed up since.  How much of that was due to their incredible Combine workouts?  I can’t say for certain, but I can give you the numbers.  Jordan and Ansah were #19 and #24 overall respectively on the January 30^th Big Board.  One month and combine later, Jordan and Ansah were sitting pretty at #4 and #12 overall.  As athletic as advertised. They now both sit in the top 10.

If you’re wondering about Geno Smith, he made the Big Board 3/9 times, no higher than #24 overall.  Although Matt Barkley and Geno Smith were the only quarterbacks on the Big Board for much of the year, it was actually NC State QB Mike Glennon that was the only player at his position in Kiper’s end-of-the-season Big Board (#21).  However, in the latest Big Board, Geno took over that honor once again at #24 overall.  Although most 2013 mock drafts have a quarterback going in the top 10, there seems to be an overwhelming opinion that no quarterback prospect in this year’s draft is actually deserving of that status.  Kiper seems to follow suit on that opinion (…or did he create it?), as he has Geno going #4 overall to the Eagles in his latest mock draft, despite ranking him #24 on his latest Big Board.

Aside from tracking the Big Board progress of the top prospects in this year’s draft, I also created a scoring system to quantify “elite status.”  I used the mildly arbitrary distinction of achieving Top 10 status on the Big Board as my criterion for “elite status,” and gave each top 10 player an increasing number of points in reverse order of their standing on the Big Board (ie the #1 overall player on any given Big Board would receive 10 points and the #10 overall player would receive 1 point).  Then I made calculations for total points, pre-combine points, and during the season points (which excludes pre-season and all off-season Big Boards) to give an idea of how the player was perceived during their entire time as a prospect, during the pre-season/offseason/post-season preceding the combine, and solely during the 2013 season.  Here are some highlights from the results:

• Regardless of the calculation used, Jarvis Jones dominates these rankings, even though he’s sitting at #13 overall in the latest Big Board.  With scores 25% higher than the next closest prospect in every ranking, Jones had the best season of any player in this draft… or has become very close friends with Mel Kiper.
• Star Lotulelei sits by himself at #2 overall in all calculations.  If not for the abnormal cardiac test at the Combine that’s seemingly a non-issue now, Lotulelei would likely be a top 3 lock in this draft.
• Luke Joeckel looks like an elite prospect, but he’s not the only one left.  Joeckel rounds out the top 3,  but Barkevious Mingo falls only marginally behind him when you consider all three calculations.
• A team that can motivate Damontre Moore has a chance to really find themselves a player.  Whether you look solely at the 2013 college season or you also include the time during the pre-season and post-season preceding the combine, Moore ranked third in overall Big Board score, ahead of Joeckel, Mingo, and every other prospect not named Star or Jarvis.  He’s a classic boom-or-bust prospect – not because of his production but because of his work ethic, desire, and “intangibles” (aka Tebow talents).
• Jordan and Floyd sure haven’t been perceived as elite prospects for long, but here’s to hoping that their meteoric rise up the Big Board has been justified.  Likely, both of these players have been under strong consideration for the Jaguars at #2 overall, and it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if we hear one of their names when the Jaguars pick at #2 next week.

The data compiled for this article is attached below (click to enlarge image).  Francis Griffin, we couldn’t have done this without ya!

– Zain Gowani

Jones could be the stand-up LEO the Jaguars defense is looking for. Source: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

The first of the potential Jaguars is a player who was once at the top of draftnik big boards and was often mocked to the Jaguars before the college season ended.  Jarvis Jones, DE/OLB from Georgia was a player who went from top-5 lock to mid-first round player almost overnight.  Somebody was doing some PR sabotage on Jones, because his medical history of “spinal stenosis” and his decision to skip the combine were seemingly publicized simultaneously.  While spinal stenosis is nothing to sneeze out, there’s been little reported on what the USC doctors actually said about Jones’s back.  You can be sure that NFL teams are getting access to those reports, if Jones truly believes he has nothing to hide.  The counteracting positive PR spin on this from Jones’s camp cites Dr. Craig Brigham as saying that Jones’s completely cleared medically to play football, but the damage has been done – at least in terms of Jones’s mock draft status.  He’s not my favorite player in this draft, but he’s got the production, demeanor, and athleticism to be the number two pick in this draft, especially when you look at the way the Jaguars’ defense is headed.  The LEO position, in Seattle at least, has excelled using undersized 3-4/4-3 hybrid ends, and there is nobody that fits that position best and has the production to match it as Jarvis Jones.  However, if there does turn out to be disconcerting news about Jones’s neck, Jones obviously won’t be the pick at number two, and will slide to the late first or early second round.  Remember, Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski and San Diego LT Marcus McNeill were both arguable first round talents that got taken in the second round after being unofficially and officially diagnosed with spinal stenosis.  The same condition actually forced McNeill’s early retirement (he was 29 years old) from the NFL last year, despite not affecting him almost at all early in his career.  Jones is a wildcard all throughout the first round, and he’s a guy that could be in the conversation for the Jaguars’ #2 pick or their #33 pick.

The other potential Jaguar that isn’t getting any mock-draft love right now is also dropping because of a medical condition – Star Lotulelei.  The discovery and “diagnosis” of Lotulelei’s heart problem was even more nebulous than the appearance of Jones’s medical condition but, unlike Jones’s, Lotulelei’s actually occurred during the pre-draft process and forced him to miss the combine.  It’s unclear whether Lotulelei actually has a heart condition or whether training/dieting/other factors caused him to have an abnormal test result, which prompted further evaluation.  Regardless, Lotulelei has been cleared by medical personnel to participate in a full pro-day workout this Wednesday and was cleared to return to practice over three weeks ago, just after the NFL Combine.  Lotulelei’s Pro Day will be a hot topic this week, and it’s likely that his narrative will take a turn for the positive this week and push his draft stock back into the top 10 range.

Lastly, here are some guys who I think you’ll hear more and more about as potential Jaguar fits in the coming weeks.

Eric Fisher, LT

Fansided’s latest mock had the Jags taking Fisher, and why not?  If you’d consider Joeckel at #2 and if Fisher is what everyone says he is, he has to be considered there too.  During the Senior Bowl, the rave reviews of Fisher put him at the top of my Round 2 wish list.  Right now, he might not even be available to the Jags in round 1.  You’ve heard the arguments against Fisher earlier this week, but I think if he’s the top player rated on your board, you take him.  Eugene Monroe is under contract for only one more year, and if he has a bad season – or such a good season that he commands top dollar – he will put the Jaguars in a predicament at one of the most important positions in football.

Dee Milliner, CB

Dee Milliner, future Jaguars Corner? Source: US Presswire

Milliner is a polarizing player in somewhat of a non-traditional sense.  He’s a fairly complete prospect without huge holes in his game, but people are highly divided over whether he deserves to be a top 5 pick – despite the fact that he plays a high value position.  While I understand that he may not be as polished or have as much potential as other top 5 CBs (e.g. Patrick Patterson), the whole top of the draft is less talented than usual – meaning that all top prospects may  not be as polished or complete as in previous years, which should even out the playing field.  If you think Milliner can be a legitimate #1 cornerback (e.g. Joe Haden), he’s worth the pick at 2.  I think what actually depresses his value in this draft is the number of legitimate big, physical corners this draft has to offer – Xavier Rhodes, Desmond Trufant, Johnthan Banks, David Amerson, etc.  The Jaguars have the ability to pick at a different position and still potentially snag a quality #1 cornerback at 33 if they choose to go that route.

Chance Warmack, OG

Warmack is much-beloved by a few writers here on Black & Teal, and trading back to around pick 10 to snag Warmack and some extra picks/ammunition would be pretty enticing for Caldwell and the Jaguars I’d imagine.  But despite the sub-par offensive line play last year and the relative lack of depth at guard, I don’t think the Jaguars will consider Warmack at 2.  I’m as strong a believer as any that positional value is overvalued in the NFL draft, but drafting in the top 5 gives a team the ability to acquire elite, cheap talent at football’s most valuable positions, and you simply can’t pass that up.  Some may argue against this position, but let me tell you why you can’t pass that up – because if you don’t get those players in the draft, you’ll never get the chance to get them.  Look at the top quarterbacks in the league – Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, etc.  Unless a quarterback is 6’0, was underperforming, and just had shoulder surgery, you’re not going to get a chance to nab one in free agency.  Are you really going to wait for the top quarterback in the league to have four neck surgeries and then get released by the team he was drafted by?  With few exceptions, good quarterbacks don’t hit free agency and aren’t readily available for trade.  This continues to be true for the other elite positions – left tackle and defensive end, primarily, and these positions are traditionally highly overpaid if a decent one hits free agency.  On the flip side, great guards hit free agency all the time – you don’t even have to give up draft picks to trade for them.  You may have to overpay some, but you do it to snag a top-5 guard in the league – a Steve Hutchinson or a Carl Nicks. Although I do think that the importance of the guard position is rising due to the rising value of defensive tackles and their increasing pass-rush abilities, I don’t think it’s risen so much that Warmack will be considered at two.  On the other hand…

Geno Smith, QB

See above.

– Zain Gowani