Quite the advantage.  Source: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Robert Griffin III threw and ran his way to an incredible rookie season, putting one of the nation’s most popular franchises on his shoulders and into the playoffs.  Equally as public was his horrific exit in the wild card round of the playoffs, where a nagging knee injury became a skin-crawling blow out that left Redskins’ fans recalling the Theisman image.  While Lawrence Taylor was most likely not at the game due to legal restrictions regarding his location to 13 year old girls, it was devastating none the less.  And what was the ‘Skins’ response?  It’s their home field advantage, according to Pierre Garcon, RG3, and others.  Think about that for a second.  The Washington Redskins advantage over visiting opponents is that they play 7 more games a season on their crappy green-painted muck than anyone else.  Great.  Grand.   What other tightwad schemes does Dan Schneider have up his sleeve?  Maybe if the Redskins played without helmets their field vision would increase and give them a boost over their opponents as well.  What a freaking disaster.

Which brings me to my point:  Consistency and familiarity with your home field can go a very long way.  Let’s break it down in numbers:

16 – Number of NFL teams with a fake grass surface in their home stadium

16 – Number of NFL teams with a natural grass surface in their home stadium

9 – Number of teams that made the playoffs with a fake grass surface

3 – Number of teams that made the playoffs with a natural grass surface

7.1 – Average number of wins this season by teams with natural grass home fields

8.8 – Average number of wins this season by teams with fake grass home fields

8 of 12 – teams at the bottom of the league with natural grass fields

8 of 12 – teams at the top of the league with fake grass fields

Does the grass a team plays on really matter that much?  Doubtful, right?  Grass is grass, football is football.  But maybe we are focusing on the wrong home field advantages to begin with…

Elevation, temperature, humidity, wind, and noise.  I contend that these five characteristics influence a football team’s performance more than a sloppy field.  Home teams practice in the same elevation, temperature, humidity, and wind as they play games in.  THEY DO NOT PRACTICE ON THE SAME FIELD THEY PLAY GAMES ON.  If the game field is tricky for the opponents, it sure as hell is going to be tricky for the home team too.  Just ask that mouth-breather Jay Cutler and the Bears “extra-long grass” how that’s working out for them.

So Jay Cutler, Michael Vick, and Ben Roethlisberger walk into a bar… to watch the playoffs.

Does your home field really matter? Probably…

Home teams should use the natural advantages their geographical location affords them. Grass ain’t one of them.

The Jacksonville Jaguars:  a perennial dumpster fire in the last half decade.  What are their current strengths?  Running back Maurice Jones-Drew.  Blue-chip wide receiver Justin Blackmon.  Highly-touted pass rusher Andre Branch.  What do they all need? A consistent surface on which to break on the ball.  What does the great city of Jacksonville offer its team?  Unparalleled humidity, occasional ocean wind gusts, direct sunshine year round, and sea-level elevation.

Jacksonville itself gives the Jags a very distinct advantage.  Maybe if we let our diamonds shine on an appropriate stage, a.k.a. Pro Turf, we can turn a train wreck into a freight train from hell.  See you in 2013, AFC South Championship.

-LJ

Numbers don’t lie.  Is Blaine Gabbert truly the worst quarterback from the last two years?  Source:  Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE

Here in Jacksonville we understand the difficulty of picking a good starting quarterback.  Byron Leftwich failed, Blaine Gabbert looks like a painful project, and for some reason it feels like we’re the only ones who get it wrong whenever we try.  Fortunately, this year presents a good study of how this year’s crop of passers and last year’s crop of passers can do.  Whether it’s a quarterback that teams reached for, like Ryan Tannehill, or someone a team waited patiently for, like Andy Dalton, 10 teams have first or second year quarterbacks under center for them this season.

How do they stack up?  We will use this season’s numbers for purposes of simplicity and in order to show development for second year quarterbacks versus the relative newness of the NFL for the rookies.  We will go in the order they were drafted.

1st Year Quarterbacks:

2nd Year Quarterbacks:

As we can see the overall effectiveness of the quarterback is heavily reliant on the talent around him.  Christian Ponder has Percy Harvin and Kyle Rudolph with a strong running game behind Adrian Peterson, Russell Wilson is flying high with Sidney Rice, Zach Miller, and resurgent Marshawn Lynch.  That said, others like Cam Newton have seemed to regress in their second year despite a strong rookie season.  What’s the difference?  Is it purely development?  How about that dreaded sophomore slump?  Why is Russell Wilson outperforming Andrew Luck with his strong receiving talent?

No matter what you see in the numbers, keep in mind that at the end of the day numbers don’t lie.  At the end of the day it isn’t just drops from Justin Blackmon or the overall weakness of the Browns that keep Blaine Gabbert and Brandon Weeden in check, it’s just a reflection of the quarterback’s ability to lead his team.

Some quick notes:

• The more mobile quarterbacks seem to have the higher completion percentage
• More traditional pocket passers have more yardage
• Only Andy Dalton has double digit touchdowns
• Only Brandon Weeden has double digit interceptions
• Blaine Gabbert is the least productive quarterback in terms of yards per game (159.2 YPG)

- Luke N. Sims

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As we all know, as much as we love MJD he isn’t any good to us in our fantasy league on the couch at home, so we touched on some wider ranging questions as well.

Let’s get to the main points:

• Robert Griffin III – When I came in, MJD was talking about the potential that Robert Griffin III has in his rookie year with the Redskins.  He placed an emphasis on the abilities of the quarterback to make plays, whether with his feet or with his arm.  At the end he said that RGIII and company may just have enough to get to the playoffs and maybe win the NFC East (all apologies to Brent Celek).  If I’m basing who I pick up as a second quarterback (maybe first) entirely on what Jones-Drew said then it sounds like RGIII may be the guy.
• 

  Could Andrew Luck struggle against some of the stouter defenses in his rookie year? Source: Charles LeClaire-US PRESSWIRE

  Andrew Luck – To follow RGIII, MJD touched on what he thought Andrew Luck could do in his first year with Indy.  While there was discussion about the ability and sharpness that Luck has displayed throughout the preseason, Jones-Drew seemed hung up on the difficult nature of playing against AFC South defenses.  He made a point of saying that the defenses could provide some struggles for Luck.  It made me think of how the Jags held Cam Newton to 53% completed pass attempts and 158 yards when they played last season.  It’s a good point when thinking about taking Luck at any point in the fantasy draft since he faces the stout Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Houston defenses two times each.

• Peyton Manning – My first question was what Celek and Jones-Drew thought Peyton Manning could do out in Denver and whether he could return to form.  While MJD said there is an obvious need to gel with the new team and hinting that it may not be similar caliber passing-wise to what he had in Indy, he said that we should expect Manning to get back to form – 30+ TDs and 4,000+ yards.  For someone coming off a few neck surgeries, I don’t think that’s too bad.  Celek agreed but said that it will be tough for him to get back to form.  Whether that means Manning will have early season struggles or will be limited in his personal control is beyond me.  Either way, if Manning is back to 30+ touchdowns and 4,000 yards he’ll be quite valuable on a fantasy team.  I’m not certain I’m as optimistic as Celek and MJD, but maybe that’s because I’ve been on the other side of a heated rivalry for a while now.
• 

  I'd prefer to see a few more touchdowns out of MJD if I draft him this year. Source: Phil Sears-US PRESSWIRE

  MJD and Whether He Can Do It Again – I asked if MJD could keep his yards per carry so high for a second season if/when he returns to the Jags, especially considering the early preseason success of the other Jacksonville running backs behind the patchwork offensive line.  All I got from him was confidence (he’ll be drafting himself again after all).  Jones-Drew thinks that the O-line will only be better with another year to gel with each other.  The play on the field of the other running backs is a good indication of that.  He also seemed confident he could do it again, smiling when asked whether his yards per carry could continue to be high (4.7 in 2011, highest since his rookie season).  He was very pleased with the development of the young offensive linemen, touching specifically on the injured Will Rackley, and was happy to see them improving.  In my opinion it seemed like he definitely wanted to see his teammates succeed and I suspect he’ll be back to play with the Jags this season at some point.  Will he be worth that first round pick?  I’m not certain because there could be some early struggles, but if he doesn’t put up 1,300 yards or more like he has done since he started full time in 2009 I’d be shocked.

While it was short, there was a lot to be garnered from Celek and MJD.  Celek had a monster year last year for Philly with over 800 yards and could easily do it again with a healthy Michael Vick or otherwise.  He should be a strong consideration for a lower end starting tight end…but you never know he could explode for another 970 yard season like in 2009.

Once again, a big thanks to DirecTV for the opportunity to chat with MJD and Brent Celek!  NFL Sunday Ticket from DriecTV is a superb to keep track of your fantasy team each week.  Whether it’s the Player Tracker system that provides live updates on up to 18 players or the ability to log directly into your fantasy league with NFL Sunday Ticket live on screen, it provides you with fantasy football interaction that can’t be competed with.  For $199.95 (the lowest cost in the decade) it is easy to track eight games on one screen, switch to the player tracker, and get the information you need for your fantasy matchup.  It’s the only place to get all the games and now syncs with several major fantasy platforms.

- Luke N. Sims

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You can also find me on Twitter @LukeNSims