The Jags don’t want to have to rely on a play like this to beat the Colts again.  Source: Thomas J. Russo-US PRESSWIRE

The Jaguars, Jets, and Bears are the only teams to beat the Colts this season.  With any luck the Jags can hand the Colts their fourth loss of the season on the national stage this Thursday night.  In week three the Jaguars faced a highly inexperienced team and found a way to win in the waning seconds with a beautiful catch-and-run from Cecil Shorts III.  What can we learn from that win heading to Thursday?

In week three we learned that the Colts are vulnerable to a strong running game.  The Jags managed to rack up 185 yards on the ground in route to winning.  The yards were explosive as well, with a 59 yard touchdown coming from Maurice Jones-Drew in the third quarter.  Unfortunately for the Jags, the running game has been more than a little off the last few weeks.  Over the last three weeks the Jaguars have only managed 180 yards.  It has become clear that without MJD it will be difficult for the Jags to run the ball like they did in week three.

Gabbert needs to be allowed more shots in this game without MJD to provide balance.  Source:  Melina Vastola-US PRESSWIRE.

Fortunately, the Jaguars have learned (or at least the fans have) that letting Blaine Gabbert throw the ball is much more effective strategy (especially without MJD).  Gabbert has put together 523 yards in the last two games, easily his best back to back performances in his career.  He looks like he is putting it together finally.  The Colts passing defense is not very good at creating turnovers (32nd in interceptions) which could urge OC Bob Bratkowski to call more aggressive plays from Gabbert. The Jaguars only threw the ball deep twice in week three (one catch, 22 yards to Kevin Elliott), but that could change as the team has gotten better at the deep ball and explosive plays during the season.

The Jags will have to find a way to limit Reggie Wayne.  With eight catches for 88 yards in week three, Wayne has only developed an even better rapport with Andrew Luck.  Since week three, Wayne has only had more than eight catches once (13 in week four for 212 yards against Green Bay) but coming against a division rival on the road that he is familiar with he will look to get more involved and put on a show yet again.  This defense may not be good enough to limit him, but rolling some coverage his way may be a necessity.

The biggest thing we can learn from week three is that the Jaguars need to find a way to set the tempo of this game. Last week the Jags couldn’t get  first down on their first three possessions, this week they must be able to do that against a Colts team that knows the value of moving the chains.  The Jaguars were four of 13 on third downs in week three and must be better if they hope to hang with Luck’s high powered offense.  Falling behind 14-3 at halftime in week three is not something the Jaguars can get away with in this game.  The Colts won’t let the Jags back in a game after leading at half time again.

This game could get messy, as all division games are.  The Jags should take everything they possibly can from week three and try to build off it for this week 10 matchup.

- Luke N. Sims

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We'll see how much you're dancing later in the year. Source: Matt Stamey-US PRESSWIRE

They’re much closer to a comeback than is commonly thought, mark my words.

But then the schedule came out.  Tennessee is geting the attention for having a rough beginning, but they’re a more complete team, they’ll be fine.  The Colts are going to be flat out abused by the opposition, and they should be.  If I am the Bears, Vikings, and Jags I am going to punish Andrew Luck at every opportunity.

The Bears are a playoff caliber team.  In fact, they’re a Superbowl caliber team.  I’ve said it for ages and will continue to say it over and over again until Jay Cutler gets injured (again).  On top of that, they have a superb defense.  One of the most underrated defensive lines in football boasts Julius Peppers (11 sacks in 2011) and Israel Idonije whose five sacks do not do him justice.  The Bears defense will make Andrew Luck wish he never declared for the draft.  Half the reason Peyton was so rarely sacked was because of his experience and quick release.  Luck won’t get a chance to develop at game speed from his back.

Seriously, this guy is insane! Source: Bruce Kluckhohn-US PRESSWIRE

The Vikings take the next jab at the Colts.  You can bet that Jared Allen and Co. will try to abuse Andrew Luck.  Based on the first game (which I fully anticipate to be a whipping of Indy), the Colts may try to run the ball more.  The Colts haven’t fielded a 1,000 yard rusher since 2007.  That isn’t just a testament to how much the offense was channeled through Peyton Manning, or how poor the running backs were, it’s about how poor the offensive line is.  The team will be starting a new center with the departure of Jeff Saturday and the line never was that good, Manning just made them look good.  Jared Allen will get off to a good start trying to beat his 22 sacks in 2011 by going after an inexperienced quarterback with little running help and an offensive line that acts more like a permeable membrane.

And if those two games don’t make Luck want to hang up the cleats, the Colts get the Jags in week three.

The Jaguars are going to be hungry to prove that they made the right decisions over the offseason.  While not fielding unbelievable pass rushing talents like the Vikings or Bears, Jeremy Mincey should be establishing himself as a top threat and whoever is starting opposite him (A rookie?  Aaron Kampman?) will help him establish himself as such.  Not to mention that the Jaguars have a more complete defense than the Colts’ first two opponents.  The 6th ranked defense from a year ago will get itself going quickly with a dominant performance over the already abused Colts.

Fortunately the Colts have their bye week in week four.  Unfortunately that means there are no breaks for the rest of the season.  Even more unfortunately, they open week five against the Packers.  Even if they have any hope later in the season, they finish with two of their final three games against Houston which should squash any comeback hopes late in the season.

I sincerely hope the Colts begin to develop into an NFL threat again, but I just don’t see it happening this season.  The institutions of the defenses that they face at the beginning may just be too demoralizing for the team to come back from at any point in the season.  Jared Allen, Julius Peppers, and the solid front 3/4ths of the Jags defense will make it a tought go of it all season.

I do see two wins against the Browns and Dolphins in weeks seven and nine.  The Colts just need to keep those games in their mind.

- Luke N. Sims

Who Can The Jags get to help Mike Thomas? Source: Don McPeak-US PRESSWIRE

The wide receiving position in Jacksonville is dismal.  It’s almost depressing to look down the roster and see who is available to catch the ball.  Here at B&T we’ve done an in depth analysis of the Jaguars’ wide receiving woes, but we’re now able to look to the future and contemplate who we should take in the draft to establish a receiving corps to rival the likes of Harrison and Wayne in Indy or Carter and Moss in Minnesota.

There are four very, very good looking prospects coming out of the combine.  Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Alshon Jeffery, and (now) Stephen Hill out of Georgia Tech.

But before we delve into who the Jags should take to focus their passing game around, we have to establish what it is that the Jaguars need.  The Jaguars really only have one good receiver on their roster, Mike Thomas.  Thomas plays best in the slot and benefits from having prototypical #1 or #2 receivers on the outside to draw coverage.  Unfortunately the Jags have yet to find a true #1 or #2 receiver to put outside.  Recent experiments have included Mike Sims-Walker (twice), Jason Hill, and Jarett Dillard.

With two open spots to fill the Jags are likely looking for a speed threat (what Hill was supposed to be) and a strong, big bodied possession receiver.  While the Jaguars will probably target one of the two in free agency, it’s helpful to look at the draft and see who the Jaguars could make off with in order to gauge what they could need best.

Which brings me to the draft scenario.  The Jaguars may be looking to trade back in the first round, or into the second round if the man they want is no longer available at seven or if they think it isn’t worth picking up the player at that point.  The only wide receiver I see worth taking at seven is Justin Blackmon.

Blackmon has been a sexy wide receiver pick since he started posting monster numbers over at Oklahoma State (read: since the dawn of time).  Blackmon benefitted from a mature quarterback in Brandon Weeden (age 28) and a passing game tailored to getting wide receivers open and swinging big.  His 38 touchdowns in the last two seasons at OSU demonstrate a nose for the endzone.  Coupled with his ability to rack up yards no matter where he catches the ball, Blackmon has been proving he’s a true #1 since he first took to the field.  However, at only 6’1″ and 215 pounds, the Jags may look for a bigger target to give Gabbert as he develops.

If Justin Blackmon is not available at seven, or if the Jaguars feel they don’t need him, look for the Jaguars to trade back in the first round.  Later in the first round, the Jags should have the ability to pick up either Michael Floyd or Alshon Jeffery.

Floyd looks good coming out of Notre Dame. Source: Matt Cashore-US PRESSWIRE

Floyd, in my humble opinion, is the better of the two (and not because he’s from Minnesota).  Floyd is a decent 6’3″ 220 pounds and can be very dynamic on the outside.  While not as prolific at finding the endzone as Blackmon, Floyd’s four years at Notre Dame resulted in a respectable 37 touchdowns.  Most notably, he didn’t drop a pass until very late in the last season.  He has incredibly sure hands and manages to look the ball into his hands as he catches, focusing well.  I rank him higher largely because of his maturity as a receiver and his consistency in the Notre Dame offense.  His 4.47 40 times isn’t bad either.  Floyd could be an excellent possession receiver for the Jaguars.  He outplays the defender with crisp route running.

Alshon Jeffery is also a superb mid to late first round prospect.  His size is superb at 6’4″ 229 pounds.  If the Jags really need a true #1 receiver and Blackmon is off the board, I wouldn’t be shocked to see them take the Junior out of South Carolina.  Jeffery had a major decline in production in 2011 (49 receptions, down from 88 in 2010) but still appears to be a dominant force in a good system.  It didn’t help that the quarterback play in South Carolina was very poor.  Though that begs the question, if he only excels with a perfect quarterback, how will he help Gabbert?  I trust that Jeffery will be able to be a successful NFL wide receiver and will be a safe pick that could provide a stable wide receiver for the Jags.

Stephen Hill looks like he could be a legitimate speed threat coming out of the second round. Source: Josh D. Weiss-US PRESSWIRE

To this point, I haven’t mentioned Kendall Wright.  Wright seems to be free-falling down draft boards, especially after running a 4.61 40 at the combine.  In contrast, Stephen Hill out of Georgia Tech is climbing rapidly due to his 4.36.  Hill is projected as a second round pick, but knowing Gene Smith he could easily be taken late in the first.  Hill is coming through the same school that produced Calvin “Megatron” Johnson.  While only catching 28 balls in 2011, Hill notched an impressive 29.3 yard average and 820 yards.  The speedster forces the defense to be wary of deep balls, ensuring that a defender has to play over the top to protect against a long pass, thereby freeing up space for Maurice Jones-Drew to run.  If the Jaguars are tired of seeing eight and nine man fronts against Pocket Hercules, expect the Jaguars to take a long look at Stephen Hill.  Being 6’5″ and 206 pounds is a knock against him as a physical presence.  Think Randy Moss.  Yeah, I didn’t think that was a bad thing either.

While I think that those four are top prospects are for the Jaguars, there are plenty of good wide receiving prospects in this draft.  I also have Nick Toon (Wisconsin) and Mohamed Sanu (Rutgers) rated pretty highly for myself and the Jags. But hey, it’s all speculation at this point.

- Luke N. Sims