By focusing so much energy and time on drafting small-school players, the Jags miss out on star power that can motivate the fan base and sell tickets.

Owner Shahid Khan wants to get rid of the tarps at Everbank Field.  He is desperate enough to attempt hiring Tim Tebow to do it.

But there’s an easier (and less costly) solution: focus on grabbing stars in college.

Looking Good Mr. Big School. Source: Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

As has been pointed out by many writers on Black and Teal, the Jags don’t go after big name prospects often.  Blaine Gabbert out of Mizzou is about as big as they come for the Jags.  Sure he had a good go of it in college, but even he wasn’t the true “star” the Jags really needed.  Nabbing a franchise quarterback is a good way to sell tickets solely because the fans want a new quarterback, but unless he’s the next sure thing out of USC he isn’t going to be bringing in new fans.

I’m not saying the Jags should focus on players like Jamarcus Russell who are complete aberrations, but rather focus on some Big-Ten and Big-12 type  players that guarantee people are interested in the Jaguars for who they’re bringing into the team.

Sure, QB Ricky Stanzi (whom I loved before the 2011 draft) isn’t selling a ton of Chiefs jerseys, but I guarantee the Chiefs gained a lot of fans in the Iowa region for grabbing their wining quarterback.  And some of those fans may just travel a few states south for a game every once in a while.

A couple Rose Bowls give you a bit of attention. Source: Richard Mackson-US PRESSWIRE

Similarly, players like C Peter Konz from Wisconsin and TE Coby Fleener from Stanford have big spotlights on them from their home states.  The Jags may not steal a ton of Wisconsin fans with the Packers being the best aerial show outside of the Red Bull runs, but some people may go “Konz was pretty damn good, I wonder how he’s doing down in Jacksonville…” and flip the channel or pop in for a game on vacation (seriously, it gets cold in that upper Midwest) down in Florida.

I’m not saying Quinton Coples is the answer just because he’s a popular player.  I’m not saying every Tim Tebow that’s available should be drafted.  But maybe, just maybe the Jags should focus on bringing in some more talent from big name schools.  Schools whose players are practically celebrities.  As much as I love OG/T Charles Burton from my alma mater, he won’t be selling tickets for the Jags.

If the Jaguars are serious about running the team more like a successful franchise, that means they need to start focusing on ways to bring the eyes of the nation to Jacksonville.  A good way to do that is winning.  But an easier way is to take the players who already have eyes on them and bring them to Jacksonville.

I’m telling you, the fans will follow.

- Luke N. Sims

Editor’s Note:  This post is from new Black & Teal contributor Zain Gowani.  He’s incredibly thorough in his posting (as I’m sure you’ll discover).  He’s a welcome addition to the B&T community.

David DeCastro. Luke Kuechly. Peter Konz.  What do these guys have in common?

These are all elite players at their position.  Studs, one might say.  And yet they are all players the Jaguars, among other top ten teams, may be less than likely to consider.

They are the clear cut best players available at their position, but each of them has an asterisk by their name – not because of character questions or a poor pro day, but because they play at a position that has “less value” in the first round.

Every draftnik, scout, and GM talks about maximizing value during the draft.  The formula for maximizing value: lining up a team’s positional needs with the Best Available Player in the draft, while taking into account positional value (QB < DE/LT <<<<< RB/G/C/LB… any other position?).  AKA, find the best one or two QBs, DEs, or LTs in the draft and try to position yourself  to be able to draft them… no telling what the teams that pick after 6 do.

But as all GMs, scouts, and fans know, that’s much easier said than done.  Moving up and down the draft can be costly and it’s easier to find a prom date these days than it is find a willing trade partner.  So in order to maximize value in other ways, teams do things like reach on workout warriors, high upside project players, or, our personal favorite, drafting small school players.   But I’m not a set-in-my-ways general manager, so I’m not writing to tell you about how to develop the next project player, find the next small school star, or even unearth the next Tom Brady.  I’m here to talk about finding your inner Maverick.  About bucking trends, the evolution of football, and maximizing value on a macro-scale.

In this short chronicling of the success of the 3-4 defense and it’s relationship to Bill Belichick, the writer makes the point that every year since 2006, a 3-4 team has led the league in total defense (still true).  The article features players like Ray Lewis and analysts like Mike Mayock praising the defense for its creativity, flexibility, and relative worth.  But as of last year, Belichick began the switch back to a 4-3, and when asked about the  switch, Belichick refers to how the 3-4 is essentially the same defense functionally as a 4-3.  But that still begs the question Billy – why are you switching?

This hooded genius knows how to find good talent to exploit opponents' weaknesses. Sourece: Greg M. Cooper-US PRESSWIRE

The Belichick answer?  Variety is the spice of life.  Translation?  The third round Joey Porters of the world are now being snatched up earlier and earlier – they’re now the first round Ryan Kerrigans and Brian Orakpos.  No longer are the fast but too small college defensive ends undervalued.  Now they have a position, 3-4 rush linebacker, and therefore, command a pretty premium that Billy B is unwilling to pay.  On the flip side, the 4-3 end draft market is gaining in value.  4-3 ends with potential, like Boise’s Tyrone Crawford, are now seen as probable mid-3^rd  rounders, while 4-3 ends just a few years ago with similar career stats, like Phillip Merling (Dolphins, 2008), were late first, early second round picks.

Well, the Jaguars run a 4-3 – so we’re in good shape right?  Right, but that’s not really the point.  The point is that the number one way an organization can find value in the draft is to buck the fad-iest current trend and start moving the other way.  One type of player that has taken the biggest hit in recent drafts is the traditional strong safety.  In the pass-happy league the NFL is now, safeties have started playing further and further back, and as such, are requiring far more speed and WR-coverage ability.  The problem is, this leaves tall, productive, safeties with good coverage skills that played in big-name conferences (but run 4.65 40s) like Tyler Sash (Giants, 2010) without a real position, and thus they become 6^th round picks and relegated to special teams duty.   So, where could you use a guy like Sash besides special teams?  How about as a coverage linebacker on third downs?  Most cornerbacks and linebackers simply don’t have the combination of size, speed, toughness, and coverage skills to cover a new breed TE like Aaron Hernandez on third down, but how about a 6’1 strong safety?  Finding a way to utilize talented players whose skills don’t match up with NFL positional trends is the number one way to get ahead in the NFL… Aaron Hernandez, and what he and Rob Gronkowski have done for the Patriots offense, is proof of that.

But bucking current trends isn’t only about drafting players – it’s about finding weaknesses in those current trends too.  Like the Dallas Cowboys and their ever increasing use of the draw-play on third downs in the blitz-happy NFC East.  I can’t count the number of times I’ve seen Philly, NY, or Washington dial up another 3^rd down blitz on 3^rd and 6 just to have Felix Jones scamper for a first down.   The Dick LeBeau’s have made the NFL an increasingly blitz-happy league, particularly on 3^rd downs, and one of the ways to counter that is the wonderfully simple delayed handoff known as the draw.

What other weaknesses in current trends should we (and the Jaguars) be looking at?  Should we be snatching up all the big power-run blocking guards and tackles that are being passed over for quick-footed, pass-protectors, and bring back smash-mouth football?  I know a certain ex-Jags writer that would love that!

At the end of the day, I just have two requests for Coach Mularkey as he joins the trend-bucking cavalry of Gene Smith.  First, take the road less traveled.  Analyze the current NFL trends and capitalize on their weaknesses…  you’re a creative young mind and the Jags brought you in to not only develop a quarterback, but to develop a team, a system, and a culture of winning.

But second, always remember our past.  When you and Bobby Bratkowski are choosing what to run on third down, channel your inner Del Rio circa 2009, and RUN THE DRAW PLAY!

Run the draw! Sourse: Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

- Zain Gowani