The analysis goes very in depth on what the team’s focus is, what is new, what is old, what could change, what should change, and why it all won’t come together this year for the Jags.  I like the read and advise you all to get on there and peruse it.

Meet New Toy Lee Evans. Source: Phil Sears-US PRESSWIRE

The analysis of the Xs and Os by Pat Kirwin was smart and got to the point.  The Jags simply do not have enough firepower to throw all the time, but the team needs to start taking chances and see how he does early in the season with his new toys (Laurent Robinson, Justin Blackmon, and Lee Evans).  Prisco predicted that Gabbert would have 3,600 yards which is a sharp increase over his 2,214 from last year.  The emphasis by Kirwin was on getting Gabbert to pass more from the Jaguars base package in order to take advantage of Blackmon’s play making ability.  With Bob Bratkowski calling the plays, the quarterback will certainly have more attempts and will rely on big gains and less mistakes to be effective.  If the margin for error is slim though, expect the team to go back to running the ball.

Prisco predicted Maurice Jones-Drew to get a more than respectable 1,558 yards in 2012.  If this is true then the 48% of the offensive production that was MJD in 2011 will shift to place less emphasis on the running back and more on the passing game and other receivers.  30% of the offense flowing through Maurice Jones-Drew is a good thing, a lot less emphasis on pocket hercules may not make him feel great about his role, but it should help the team win games.

Which brings me to the odd part of the prediction.  Prisco predicts big changes in the emphasis of the Jaguars offense: Gabbert suddenly explodes with production, Jones-Drew is still ridiculously productive.  Yet he only predicts the team winning four games in 2012.  The majority of the analysis about the team emphasizes the great play of the defense and its continued success for next season and places an emphasis on shifting the offense away from Maurice Jones-Drew.  If those things are accomplished (as is predicted in the article and yardage predictions by Prisco) then why will the team only win four games?  An offense that puts up big numbers and a defense that held eight teams to under 17 points last season should translate into wins, shouldn’t it?

I really enjoyed CBS Sports’ article, but I find the logic behind the prediction to be puzzling.  It is the most positive piece of journalism on the Jags from a major news source in a while, but it does not seem to mesh its ideas with its outcome.  If the Jags do as CBS suggests, it should be a great year for the team.  If the Jags end up with the record CBS suggests, then the team will not be having nearly the amount of success that the analysis speculates could occur.

- Luke N. Sims

Feel free to leave comments on here or visit us at Facebook or Twitter!

You can also find me on Twitter @LukeNSims

Don’t know what I’m talking about?  Alright, I’ve got it for you right here:

Essentially, the Jags picked up yards like nothing I’ve seen since.  Fred Taylor looked like he was young again, Maurice Jones-Drew was young and showing that explosiveness that apparently is no more (thanks Pete Prisco), and David Garrard continued to solidify himself as a game manager quarterback.

I don’t think the Jaguars in 2011 could have ran five 17+ yard carries in a row.  With the faulty play of Blaine Gabbert which led to stacking the box against MJD, not to mention the lack of a good running back behind MJD (Sorry Deji Karim….maybe Greg Jones could have had an opportunity?), the Jags had little hope of being able to run wild.

But the Jaguars back in 2006?  It was a dream come true.  Garrard was setting himself up for his super efficient 2007 season, Taylor and Jones-Drew were a powerful tandem, and the offensive line was something beyond reproach.

That year, Garrard was getting some major starting time with an injured Byron Leftwich.  He wasn’t the model of efficiency that he would be in 2007, but he led the team with energy.

That year, the offensive line wasn’t supposed to be anything special, but the unit banded together and hunkered down.  It became a premier run blocking unit that allowed Fred Taylor to almost get 1,200 yards and MJD to get almost 1,000.

Taylor was always a delight to watch! Source: Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

Taylor and MJD were a delight to watch.  The energy of the young Jones-Drew seemed to invigorate Fred Taylor to new heights, revitalizing his running game.  The pair were a highlight reel all season long.  They averaged 5.0 and 5.7 yards per attempt on the season, respectively.

So, what’s so similar about the 2012 Jaguars and the 2006 Jaguars?  Hopefully it won’t be the record of 8-8.

Blaine Gabbert is entering a season where he isn’t expected to do much, and he should be able to be average.  David Garrard was right around average in 2006, and Byron Leftwich never got better than average in his career.

Further, Maurice Jones-Drew gets dependable, fresh legs to join him in the backfield in Rashad Jennings.  He’s the kind of guy you want back there to push you to greater heights.  Just the kind of guy who is supportive enough of your skills and legacy to make your past year that wore you down seem like a distant memory.  And if Jones-Drew gets tired after four straight run plays, bring in Jennings and your offense hasn’t lost a beat.

Now, onto the offensive line.  You know, the unit that has been ridiculed in the past couple years for not being good enough at pass protection?  While I certainly am not going to say that allowing 40 sacks is a good thing (Guard Uche Nwaneri has pledged to set a new record in sacks allowed this year), I am a firm believer in focusing on run blocking before focusing on pass blocking.  It worked in 2006, and it will work in 2012.  Here’s why:

You can have a very good pass blocking unit that allows your quarterback time to get the ball out and put up some monster yards (i.e. the Peyton Manning-led Colts).  That same line can do a good job of that in the red zone, allowing time for your passing attack to find the big target and throw it for a score.  That’s all well and good and it is the way a lot of teams are going in the pass heavy modern NFL.

Will Donald Brown live up to his potential? Source: Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

But for teams like the Jaguars that have real running backs (no offense to Joseph Addai or Donald Brown), focusing on the run blocking is more important.  It opens up space for the running back, clears lanes, and, most importantly, allows the offense to remain balanced.  When the defense is always worried that the unit can easily move to the second level of the defense and block linebackers, then the defense has to respect the ability of the offense to “surge” forward.  In that surge, the running backs will move forward and pick up yards.  But what if it’s a passing play?  It takes a bit of time to identify the play (especially with play action which should be well respected due to the running attack).  The defense knows they could be moved off their responsibilities by a bully of an offensive line, and know that if they rush too much the ball carrier will slip past them up the middle, the side, or just barely past their outstretched arms.

So, how is this unit going to be good at running in 2012?  Because the offensive line did little to nothing more than run block last season.  The pass blocking was terrible.  Truly horrendous.  But with more legitimate receiving targets and a more mature quarterback, and a line that has played together for a year (minus tackle Eben Britton), you’re looking at a unit that will be able to bully the defense and thus free up better pass blocking through the respect the defense must give the run game.

I’ve stated this all far more convoluted than I should have, but, essentially, with a more balanced approach the pass blocking should be more free to have errors and less costly ones.  Those errors will be more irregular because the defense won’t be able to key in on the running game solely but must allow the play to develop some time before they know if it is going to be a draw play or a real pass play.  This frees up time for the offensive line to be more effective in passing plays.

That offensive line, in combination with skilled ball carriers and an average quarterback (at least) should set up the Jaguars to run wild in 2012.

- Luke N. Sims

Feel free to leave comments on here or visit us at Facebook or Twitter!

You can also find me on Twitter @LukeNSims

Fred Taylor could do it all, in the later stages of his career it was beyond helpful to have Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield with him. Source: Brett Davis-US PRESSWIRE

No longer does Jones-Drew return kicks.  No longer does Jones-Drew come in with fresh legs every 5-7 touches.  No longer does Jones-Drew turn every play into a big play.  And that’s a good thing.

MJD became a national icon for his big plays when he was a spell back for Fred Taylor.  His ability to bust loose for 20 to sixty yards was something special to watch.  In the days of Devin Hester returning anything and everything for a touchdown, MJD was doing pretty well down in Jacksonville.  And, with his older age, MJD has managed to effectively transition his game to what most people expected it to be when he entered the league: a grinder.

A grinder, a bruiser, pounder, what have you is a running back that gives you that 3-5 yards every time he touches the ball.  Sometimes he’ll take it to the house, sometimes he’ll just give you those three yards you need.  You know that every time he touches that ball, the defense gets worried having to take him down.  Maurice Jones-Drew’s size at 5’7″ is low to the ground, difficult to tackle, and more beneficial for a short yard burst through the opponent’s line to get those 3-5 yards.  His early days of bouncing outside and outrunning the longer-legged competition was something to marvel at and opened the door for players like Baltimore’s Ray Rice to emulate.

Seriously, Jacobs is a Giant! Source: William Perlman/THE STAR-LEDGER via US PRESSWIRE

Jones-Drew will never be Brandon Jacobs.  He won’t be some giant barreling down on the opposition like a colossus that can’t be escaped.  Instead, he will be a true grinder, making you appreciate him for sheer effort.  Like Rudy, but more successful.

Pete Prisco of CBS sports notes that MJD isn’t as explosive as he once was:

Jaguars sources say he isn’t nearly as explosive as he used to be, and I would agree.

However, rather than saying this as a bad thing, I think it’s a good thing.  It’s a transition to a new role.  In a high tempo offense more balanced than in years past, the Mike Mularkey led Jaguars are going to need a grinding running back to punish the defensive line for their devoted pass rush after they’ve been running the previous down to keep up with the movement of the offense.  MJD is the man for that job.  Let some other spell back be the dynamite that explodes into the second and third level.  It’s what Rashad Jennings is there for, to provide that extra bit of flash and dash (something Deji Karim failed at last year).

Teams can be very successful with a strong grinding running back, especially with a player built for the role.  Jerome Bettis did it for years with the Steelers.  He provided a force that the opposition just couldn’t bring down.  That is the type of role that Maurice Jones-Drew is being put into.  There’s still some explosion in his legs, but it isn’t quite the same as it once was.  But he has the skill, foresight, and knowledge to last longer than bruisers like ex-Tennessee running back LenDale White or ex-Browns running back Peyton Hillis.  It takes skill to get over 1,000 yards in the NFL, don’t get me wrong.  But to do it consistently or to hover around 800-900 while abusing the opposition and abusing your body is difficult.

But when you talk about an explosive player, it doesn’t have to be the plays that that player does all on his own.  It can be the plays he sets up.  Sure, there will be some (MJD ran a 56 yarder in 2011), but there will also be those plays where he gets the ball and wears out the defense to free up Laurent Robinson on a post or Mike Thomas down the seem.

Rashad Jennings is more than capable of spelling Maurice Jones-Drew effectively, let him be the explosive aspect of the running game. Source: Thomas Campbell-US PRESSWIRE

All due respect to Pete Prisco, truly, but being explosive doesn’t mean that you don’t deserve to be the face of the franchise, the featured player, or a new contract.  The role that Jones-Drew is carving out for himself is one of transition, dependability, and an ability to move the ball whenever and however a coach wants.  Let someone else be that explosive back, and when Maurice Jones-Drew takes another one to the house from 20+ yards out….let the defense be wary.

We’re talking about a player that will be dominant into his thirties.  A player that plays through injuries, poor team play, and can make a difference whether he’s providing that extra bit of flash or just blocking linebacker twice his size.  MJD’s  new role in the offense will be more balanced, less focused on him.  And to be honest, he’s at the right point in his career for that to be the case.

- Luke N. Sims

Feel free to leave comments on here or visit us at Facebook or Twitter!

You can also find me on Twitter @LukeNSims