It may feel alien to MJD for the first couple days or weeks, but in the time that he’s been holding out there have been some changes around the Jaguars.

• There’s a new owner, Shahid Khan
• There’s a new head coach, Mike Mularkey
• There’s a new offensive coordinator, Bob Bratkowski

But besides the immediate changes, there is also an intangible that has changed: leadership.

When Jones-Drew left, he was the king of the Jaguars.  He was the face of the franchise, the man everyone looked to.  His name was practically synonymous with Jaguars football.  In his absence, Blaine Gabbert stepped up.

It’s tough coming into a new organization.  It’s even tougher to be called on to be a starting quarterback when you were third on the depth chart three weeks prior.  It becomes even harder to lead an offense – as a rookie, as the initial third stringer – when someone like MJD is in the huddle.

Jones-Drew was the leader before he held out for the offseason.  Now it’s Gabbert’s team.

ESPN’s Paul Kuharsky put it brilliantly when he said, “[MJD] needs to show he’s part of it and not thinking he’s some sort of savior walking through the door.”  It isn’t that MJD isn’t going to be an important part of the offense (though Rashad Jennings will still get the week one start), it’s that he needs to realize he is no longer what he once was for the team.

Jones-Drew is still a top five back, he’s still a threat in the running and passing games, but he is no longer the leader of this team.  It’s not MJD’s team anymore.

This team has left the station, and as important as Jones-Drew is, he’s no longer the engine.

- Luke N. Sims

Building confidence of a player is important, and for Blaine Gabbert it is especially crucial to develop confidence in the pocket.  However, I do not see Mike Mularkey and Bob Bratkowski focusing too much on building his confidence during games.

Mularkey and Co. know what they have in Gabbert and have been working with him through the offseason.  This offseason they got a look at him before the draft and decided they liked what they had enough to work with him for the season.  What they have is not some gun-shy rookie but a 14 game starter who is a little antsy in the pocket.  If short plays are being called, it will be because Mularkey wants to focus on the short game and not because of Gabbert’s inability to come into a game ready to play.

Confidence building during a game would be crucial during the season if a young quarterback is suddenly thrust into the limelight.  This happened to Gabbert with the abrupt parting of ways with David Garrard before last season and the sudden move of placing Gabbert at starter after Luke McCown’s disastrous week 2 performance.  Gabbert’s rhythm is being developed now, not at the start or during the season.

It is about time the fans and media stops focusing on the inability of Gabbert and start focusing on how he is developing.  We’re still talking about a project at quarterback, but we are also talking about a young man who has seen a season of starting and will be coming into the season looking to establish his rhythm early.

It will be about Gabbert dictating the game a lot more than the game dictating Gabbert.

- Luke N. Sims

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Daniel Lago did a very good job of outlining a best and worst case scenario for the Jaguars last week.  Today, ESPN’s Paul Kuharsky published his deam/nightmare scenarios for the Jaguars.

Daniel has the Jaguars’ best case scenario at 12-4 and the worst case at 4-12.  Kuharsky has the Jaguars at 10-6/4-12.  Is there a happy medium?  Is there a realistic scenario?

Can the jags do it again against the Colts? Source: Matt Stamey-US PRESSWIRE

In order to make the playoffs, the Jags need to fare well in the six games they face against division opponents.  Winning consistently in the division can do wonders for increasing a team’s playoff chances. How does Kuharsky have the Titans, Texans, and Colts measured for dream/nightmare scenarios?  11-5/5-11, 12-4/7-9, and 8-8/2-14 respectively.

I personally believe that if the Colts manage to put it all together they could go 9-7.  I similarly doubt that the Titans can keep it together long enough to go 11-5 this year, but think 10-6 is a real possibility.  I also think that the Texans have a much deeper nightmare situation at around 5-11 (that O-line is being entirely overhauled).

So, how can the Jags compete in a division that has teams with much higher ceilings and better nightmare scenarios (excluding the Colts).  They’ll have to win against the division opponents.

I wish Kuharsky had laid out which games he thinks the Jaguars could win in the 2012 season, like Mr. Lago did.  Unfortunately, he did not.  But there is something to be said about rivalry games.  They have more pressure, a heavier more frenzied feel, and passions boil over during them.  Whether it’s Cortland Finnegan and Andre Johnson throwing punches on the field or the Jay Cutler/Philip Rivers word play that commanded the AFC West for so long, rivalries have a  a way of affecting how a team plays.

It's Always a Dangerous when Rivalries Spark

And I think that the Jaguars have a chip on their shoulder much bigger than the other teams in the division.

Right now, Tennessee is happy with where they landed last season at 9-7,second place in the division.  They outperformed their expectations and did well with a serviceable new quarterback and new face of the franchise waiting in the wings.  But they were really an 8-8 team.  I think that now they are a 9-7 team with the strength of their roster, but I don’t feel the same mentality that they had last year.  A mentality that they needed to prove something – to show the league that they can be dominant franchise once again.

The Indianapolis Colts just aren’t who they used to be, and they learned that last year – in a pretty convincing manner I might add.  They were beat into submission by nearly everybody.  Their speed players were skilled enough to make game-changing impacts, their offense was abysmal, and the team slowly became defeated throughout the year.  The offseason didn’t help that air of defeat.  Team Owner Jim Irsay is acting like a cornered animal.  He has done the right moves personnel wise, but he doesn’t have the bravado that he was afforded when when Peyton Manning was behind center.  Rather than the confident Colts that were commonplace in 2000s, we now have a Colts team that warily watches the next team approach each week – whimpering before being forced into competition.  The team is new and doesn’t seem to have anything to prove since the entire organization cleaned house from quarterback to general manager.  Next year they’ll have something to prove, but this year the have little to compete for except development.

Can Matt Schaub rebound from Last Year's Injury? Source: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

The Houston Texans have the biggest chip on their shoulder outside of the Jaguars.  The team made the playoffs for the first time in franchise history this past season.  The offense is explosive, Matt Schaub will be playing to ensure that the team can win next year.  But they are comfortable on their throne at the top of the AFC South.  They’ve been the darkhorse candidate for so many years and are finally the favorites.  Unfortunately, they didn’t do much to make themselves stronger this offseason and have made some foolish personel moves – namely letting 2/5ths of its offensive line walk in free agency.  They aren’t prime to keep their position atop the heap, but they aren’t yet aware.  Just try saying the Texans may not do well and any fan will immediately call blasphemy.

The Jaguars, however, have been the most consistent threat for the title since the formation of the division in 2002.  2010 was their year to take the crown, but they fell short.  2011 was there year to compete again but Jack Del Rio and Co. shot themselves in the foot with poor personnel management.  The Jaguars are hungry for that title.  They’ve been abused by the national media for anything from blackouts to poor quarterback play.  They’ve been ridiculed for their roster management.  But it doesn’t matter because the team is playing to win in 2012.  The Jaguars are one of the few teams that will be greater than the sum of its parts in 2012.

Jones-Drew will want to prove he's the best running back in the AFC South and that he can get a title for the Jaguars. Source: Matt Stamey-US PRESSWIRE

Taking the competitiveness that will be occurring in the division, I don’t see the Jaguars doing any worse than 3-3 (even if two of them are against the Colts) against divisional opponents.  Factor in a win against the Vikings, maybe another two somewhere and a win against the Bills and the Dolphins the Jags are sitting at a pretty solid 7-9.  Will it happen that way?  Maybe not.  But you can’t discount the passion that this team will have oozing out of its pores.

Rivalry games will tell the tale for the Jaguars in 2012.  It won’t guarantee them a spot in the playoffs (even if they win all six), but it will give them solid experience and show the division that they won’t be muscled about like the Colts.  Gabbert can, and will throw the Jaguars to victory – even if it is out of spite.

There’s more to football than Xs and Os.  There’s more in a game than just performing a designated scheme.  There’s passion, fire, intangibles that can’t be measured.  And the Jags roster has that more than a lot of other teams right now.

So, with all due respect to Mr. Kuharsky and Mr. Lago, I think a different best/worst case scenario will have its way with the AFC South.  This is how I see the teams doing on the whole with potential division matchup records:

Tennessee Titans: 10-6 (4-2)/7-9 (3-3)

Houston Texans: 12-4 (5-1)/5-11 (3-3)

Indianapolis Colts: 9-7 (3-3)/4-12 (2-4)

Jacksonville Jaguars: 10-6 (4-2)/6-10 (2-4)

Like them?  Hate them?  It doesn’t really matter, we’ll see how it plays out in the season.  But think a little bit about what the teams will do within the division.  I’m betting the Jags hover around 8-8 this year, but with a little bit of energy in those divisional matchups, it should be surprising if they make a leap much higher and outmuscle a couple teams for a higher place on the ladder.

- Luke N. Sims