Go ahead and read it. It’s a prime example of the national media churning out a lazy, poorly articulated article about the how the Jaguars are the ideal candidate to move to Los Angeles. Now, to be fair, the impetus to this particular piece seemed to be the minor public relations snafu between the city of Jacksonville and the Jaguars. In short, General Counsel Cindy Laquidara made a massive mistake in threatening to terminate the Jaguars lease due to a change in the company managing operations at Everbank Field and other facilities. Shahid Khan and Mayor Alvin Brown moved quickly to resolve the situation, and in reality this isn’t a major issue. The team isn’t going anywhere, and the person responsible, Laquidara, is most likely going to be asked to resign.

Referring back to the original piece, fact-checking is supposed to be the easy, and most critical, part of constructing an article. To provide some truthiness to this piece of writing, I’m going to insert my own footnotes for the loyal readers of Black and Teal. Feel free to share with anyone else who read the article.

Mr. Khan looks like a man who keeps his word, and he plans to keep the Jaguars in Jacksonville. Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE

Mr. Khan looks like a man who keeps his word, and he plans to keep the Jaguars in Jacksonville.

“Teams like the Oakland Raiders and the Jacksonville Jaguars have experienced financial losses in recent years as they operate in markets that cannot fully support them.”*

*”Financial losses” seems to be a bit misleading. If you click the link, it shows that the Jaguars had the largest negative change in team value (-16%) but there are several other meaningful statistics in the table. The Jaguars were middle of the pack in operating income and were ahead of the Raiders and Lions in total revenue. To insinuate that the Jaguars are in dire financial straits is a complete falsehood. In fact, if you want to make the financial argument, why not move a team with strong LA roots already in the Raiders?

“Unhealthy franchises, the ones that struggle to fill seats and generate income, don’t tend to stay put in the NFL. The Jaguars are the definition of an unhealthy franchise.”**

**The writer’s criteria for an “unhealthy” franchise are struggling to fill seats and generate income. Let’s quickly deal with the income argument – the writer just linked to an article where the Jaguars are 19^th in operating income, ahead of teams like the Giants, Packers, and Steelers. I would say the Jaguars don’t exactly qualify.

I could point to several facts debunking that the Jaguars are the only franchise “struggling to fill seats” (like the Jaguars not blacking out a game since 2009 or the Jaguars never finishing last in attendance) but instead I’ll link to the #JaguarsFacts twitter bomb site.

“An expansion franchise that joined the NFL in 1995, the Jaguars have never really captured the hearts of Floridians.”***

***Yeah, you’re totally right. The people of Jacksonville were completely apathetic about the team during its magical playoff run in 1996-1997.

This guy had Jaguar fans pretty excited in 1997. Source: BigCatCountry.com

This guy had Jaguar fans pretty excited in 1997.

“The franchise has gone as far as to block off sections of seats to try to avoid television blackouts.”****

****This sentence could be more accurately written as “the team put tarps on some seats so the stadium that was built oversized for the Florida-Georgia game could be brought down to its appropriate market size for the NFL team.”

“On top of that, the Jaguars have a hard time bringing in attractive free agents and keeping their emerging players at home.”*****

*****Can someone explain this one to me? It’s pretty clear why the writer didn’t provide an example of the Jaguars losing an “emerging” player – because it’s never happened. The only time the Jaguars released players who could still contribute was during the end of the Coughlin era when the team was in salary cap hell. I can’t think of one unrestricted free-agent who left the Jaguars and went on to become a superstar. Additionally, the Jaguars didn’t seem to have a hard time bringing in premier free-agents in 2011 (Posluzny, Landry, Session) or 2012 (Robinson, Henne, Ross).

“Although the Jaguars are now under the ownership of a new group and in a lease until 2027, no amount of cajoling can turn the residents into the passionate fanbase that the team will need to develop in order to survive.”******

******This will be my final point from this article. The idea that nothing can turn the Jaguars into a passionate fanbase is absolutely ridiculous. Believe it or not, virtually every team struggles to sell tickets when the team is losing. The Colts still have over 3,000 unsold season tickets after Manning left. After only one bad year, the Colts franchise is struggling to sell out the stadium. The city of Jacksonville proved it can fully support this team during its run in the late 90s, and there’s every reason to believe the Jaguars can revive that kind of fervor in the city by winning again.

I don’t go out of my way to critique other writing on the internet, but it would be a disservice to Jaguar fans to continue to let this kind of garbage go by uncontested. It’s our duty as die-hard fans to comment on these articles when we read them and let the writer know that nobody is buying it. It’s about time this “Jaguars to LA” talk died down. Why reward a city that couldn’t keep two other NFL teams?

-Daniel Lago

P.S. I am very aware of the irony in the title of this post

Despite this, people like Don Banks of SI.com are still saying comical things like “Blaine Gabbert will lose his starting quarterback job to Chad Henne by Week 3 (of the preseason),” while Jason Smith of NFL.com says Henne is “erratic and prone to bad turnovers” and he still “could keep Gabbert on the bench.”

Let’s get one thing clear: barring injury, Blaine Gabbert will be the starting quarterback for the Jacksonville Jaguars for week one of the 2012 season. Unless some combination of Chad Henne playing like Montana in his prime and Blaine Gabbert somehow playing worse than last season occurs, Chad Henne will not be with the first-team offense. Alfie Crow at SBNation.com does a good job explaining why Blaine Gabbert has to start for the Jaguars this season, but in short, Chad Henne starting at any point is likely a worst-case scenario for the Jaguars. It means either Gabbert is hurt, or Gabbert is playing badly enough to warrant his benching and likely the end of his starting career in Jacksonville.

Blaine Gabbert illustrating the worst-case scenario. Matt Stamey-US PRESSWIRE

Blaine Gabbert illustrating the worst-case scenario.

All this talk got me thinking about what are the best and worst-case scenarios for the Jaguars this season. Now I’m not going to be facetious – the worst-case scenario for any team is 0-16 and the best-case scenario is 16-0. I’m going to discuss how each scenario would play out and what the end result would be.

Best-Case Scenario

In this scenario, Blaine Gabbert makes drastic improvements and leads the offense to a “middle-of-the-pack” ranking, while the defense maintains its top 5 ranking. At 12-4 the Jaguars take the AFC South crown for the first time and could possibly secure a first-round bye.

How it could happen:

This scenario only happens if Blaine Gabbert makes significant strides in his second season and if Gene Smith’s other first round picks – Eugene Monroe and Tyson Alualu – start playing at pro bowl levels. The revamped receiving core becomes a cohesive unit early in the season and chemistry with Gabbert is readily apparent. The key contributors on defense who were injured last year – Rashean Mathis, Paul Posluzny, Alualu, Derek Cox – all come back at full strength and the defense doesn’t miss a beat.

Worst-Case Scenario

In this scenario, Blaine Gabbert starts the season but shows little to no improvement. The Jaguars may turn to Chad Henne late in the season, but with no shot at the playoffs, the Jaguars prefer to leave Gabbert in to give him a chance to show the team something before the season ends.

How it could happen:

The Jaguars’ season could be derailed for many reasons, but in reality the success of the team in 2012 hinges on the development of Blaine Gabbert. If Blaine Gabbert continues to play at the level he played in 2011, the Jaguars don’t stand a chance. Coupling Gabbert’s struggles with the decline or injury of some of the Jaguars’ older players could spell the end of the Gene Smith era in Jacksonville.

The worst-case scenario means we won't be seeing this handsome devil running the Jaguars in 2013. Phil Sears-US PRESSWIRE

The worst-case scenario means we won’t be seeing this handsome devil running the Jaguars in 2013.

The win-loss total for each scenario was somewhat arbitrary, but the point I’m trying to get across is how much Blaine Gabbert will dictate the Jaguars’ success next season. The obvious response is “well, duh the quarterback is the most important position on the field,” and that would be the correct response. With average quarterback play in 2011, the Jaguars could have competed for a playoff spot. If Gabbert can show even marginal improvement, there’s no reason the Jaguars should be below .500.

With all that said, I think the Jaguars’ (overly optimistic) ceiling is 12 wins, and their floor is 4 wins. What do you think? How many games should the Jaguars win in 2012?

-Daniel Lago

Gene Smith's speculating face. Phil Sears-US PRESSWIRE

It’s been the offseason for almost four weeks for the Jaguars, which means it’s time to start speculating. Now, the writers on ESPN get paid to speculate, but I don’t. I can afford to say even stupider things. I’m not holding back – this is the time to bring up crazy, far-fetched ideas because why not? We have our new coaching staff in place, so it’s time to start wondering about the roster. Click the jump to see the madness.

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