Feb 23, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Georgia Tech defensive tackle T.J. Barnes speaks at a press conference during the 2013 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Credit: Pat Lovell-USA TODAY Sports

Things are looking up for the Jacksonville Jaguars.  The 2013 NFL Draft was a treat for those of us who root for the black and teal, but things didn’t end after round seven for the Jags.  The team went out and secured a bevy of quality undrafted free agents as well.

Now, Gil Brandt from NFL.com is saying that the Jaguars have the best undrafted free agent class in the NFL.  That’s quite the turn around from just a year ago when the Jaguars struggled to sign quality players from the draft and undrafted free agency.

Here’s what Brandt had to say:

The Jaguars did a great job here. I especially like the (QB Matt) Scott signing. I think he’s someone who can operate the spread or the Pistol offense. He has a very, very strong arm. (OLB Paul) Hazel has outstanding measurables and played both football and basketball at Western Michigan. (DL T.J.) Barnes weighed more than 350 pounds at the NFL Scouting Combine and still ran a 5.3-second 40-yard dash.

All in all, this is big for the Jaguars.  UDFAs have a real shot to compete for roster spots with the Jags because the team is so incredibly thin at so many spots.  That makes Jacksonville an attractive destination for those players who are looking for an opportunity to become something special.

- Luke N. Sims

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Jan 4, 2013; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas A

I want to show you how good this draft “probably” will turn out to be. I say that because I did a conditional probability study on it, and the results surprised me.  No one knows, not David Caldwell, not Gus Bradley really knows how this will turn out, but draft history can show us some probable outcomes.

Drafting a Tackle Early

First, taking a tackle in the first 5 draft spots has happened 15 times from 1980-2007.  Of those 15, 13 of them were the primary starter for their team for at least 5 years.  Nine of the 15 made the pro bowl numerous times. One that didn’t, Paul Gruber, played for Tampa Bay in the late 1980’s and 1990’s. Tampa Bay wasn’t very good, but Paul Gruber is in their ring of honor.

So we can say we have an 87% chance we just drafted a 5 year starter and a 60% chance we have a multiple pro bowl player in Luke Joeckel.  Bringing it home, there is a very high probability we have drafted no worse than a Eugene Monroe quality player and a good possibility of a Tony Boselli quality. There is a 13% chance of a Tony Mandarich, but that is only because there really was a Tony Mandarich.

Drafting five Defensive Backfield guys

I looked at the draft from 1980 – 2007 for DB’s selected in the range of 25-40, 50-75 and 170-220. This is equivalent to the guys we drafted this year. The probability that we have drafted at least one guy who will be a primary starter for 3 years is 90%.  I don’t know which of the five will make it, but the probability at least one does is 90%. The chance that two of the guys become 3 years primary starters is 53%.  There is a 24% chance one of them is voted to the all pro first team at least once in their career.  To bring this home, there is a 90% chance we have a Donovan Darius quality guy and a 24% chance we have a Rashean Mathis (in his prime) quality guy.  There is better than a 50% chance we have one Derek Cox quality and one Donovan Darius quality defensive backfield guys in the draft. I don’t know which ones they will be.

The other two, Ace and Denard

These guys look like trying to catch lightning in a bottle kind of picks. There is a very very low chance of them catching fire, about a 15% chance of either being a primary starter for 3 years or more and only a 6% chance of either one being a pro bowl player. But with two guys, there is a 28% chance one of the two of them hits. I think 28% is decent odds for guys like this. If they do catch on, it is because they are very productive and if either of these guys is that good, season tickets will be an easy sell.

Summary

In this draft, there is almost 90% certainty that we have at least two multi-year primary starters and a very good chance, over 50%, there are three. There is a 14% chance of four primary starters for three years or more. There is a 70% chance of one pro bowl player and a 14% chance of two pro bowl guys.

I would say if we have two starters, one in the pro bowl and three good rotational or situation guys, this is a good draft. It “probably” was this good.  There is a chance it is even better.

- Terry O’Brien

November 10, 2012; Columbia, SC, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks safety Ross Rasner (35) knocks a pass away from South Carolina Gamecocks wide receiver Ace Sanders (1) in the second half at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports

For a long time the Jacksonville Jaguars really struggled at their skill positions, especially at wide receiver.  They couldn’t quite lock down the spots.  We’ve seen Jerry Porter, Matt Jones, and Mike Sims-Walker all try to lock down the outside.  But now it seems the Jaguars are more set the skill positions, especially wide receiver, than they have been in the past.

For a while, because the Jaguars couldn’t lockdown wide receiver, it felt that the team was particularly week at those positions.  However, the Jaguars really got weak everywhere on the roster.  In the 2013 NFL Draft, the Jaguars addressed both skill positions (Denard Robinson and Ace Sanders) and the bigger need of the offensive line.

Luke Joeckel isn’t going to solve the Jaguars offensive line woes all on his own, but he will definitely help.  Though even Joeckel wasn’t the biggest indication that the Jaguars more satisfied with their skill positions than in years past.  While Robinson and Sanders are dynamic and sure-fire special teams masters, the focus of the draft was on the defensive secondary.  It seems the Jaguars are satisfied with what Justin Blackmon, Cecil Shorts III, Mohamed Massaqoui, and Jordan Shipley bring to the table.

I’m inclined to agree.  Sanders and Robinson will help though and I’m pleased that the Jaguars were able to add dynamic players to an area they likely felt decently satisfied with heading into the draft, allowing them to address the positions in rounds four and five.

- Luke N. Sims

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You can also find me on Twitter @LukeNSims