Dec 16, 2012; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Justin Blackmon (14) celebrates a touchdown catch over Miami Dolphins defensive back R.J. Stanford (not pictured) but it was called back on a penalty in the second quarter at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Under GM Gene Smith the Jacksonville Jaguars were always looking to trade back but ended up trading forward.  Whether it was Derek Cox, Blaine Gabbert, or Justin Blackmon, Smith just couldn’t sit back and wait for his guy to fall to him.  Last year it was the trade for Blackmon.  The Jaguars were sitting at number seven overall and lept two spots to land the future star wide receiver.  They gave up pick #101 and their first rounder to trade spots with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Here’s what the National Football Post had to say about the trade:

DRAFTMETRICS OPINION: Any time a team moves down and stays within the first 13 picks, it is
going to win the trade on paper. The Bucs later traded the #101 pick as part of another first
round trade-up.

PREMIUM PAID TO THE BUCS: 

The premium paid to the Bucs numbers represent the odds that the players they select would pan out as either 3-year starters, 5-year starters, a pro bowl, or three time pro bowl players.  The odds weren’t high that they would make the pro bowl but as NFP noted, “any time a team moves down and stays within the first 13 picks, it is going to win the trade on paper.”  Blackmon has to be good but not necessarily something super special in order to “justify” this trade.  There is only a 4.9% chance that the Bucs added a pro bowler to their roster from the trade and Blackmon has already shown he can handle the NFL and could explode for some major yardage at any point.

- Luke N. Sims

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Dec 30, 2012; Nashville, TN, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Justin Blackmon (14) runs with the ball against the Tennessee Titans during the first half at LP Field. Mandatory credit: Don McPeak-USA TODAY Sports

FOX Sports is going through each first round pick from the 2012 NFL Draft and “grading” them.  The term “grade” is kind of misleading because they are really just assessing the expectations coming in and what the player actually did and then predicting what’s next.  Here’s what they had to say about Blackmon:

Team: Jacksonville Jaguars

Expectations coming in: Blackmon was supposed to supply some instant juice for what was the NFL’s worst passing attack in 2011.

How’d he do?: Blackmon got off to a slow start before a 236-yard outing against Houston in Week 11. He finished the season with 64 catches for 865 yards and five touchdowns.

What’s next?: For Blackmon to fulfill his potential, the Jaguars must find an answer at quarterback.

It was pretty apparent in Jacksonville that Blackmon wasn’t an immediate success.  He dropped passes, he was in the wrong place at the wrong time on a lot of routes, and he wasn’t winning his match-ups as anticipated.  Fortunately, as noted in the analysis, week 11 really turned things around and the top wide receiver from the 2012 class turned in a rookie-best 865 yards at the end of the season.

It seems to me that Blackmon took a little bit of time to adjust to the speed of the NFL and what was expected of him.  His role in head coach Mike Mularkey’s complex offense was varied and the options on his route tree may have been too complex while he was still adjusting to the big leagues.  He definitely seemed more comfortable in the later part of the season and it was apparent that he was putting it together.  While fulfilling his potential is definitely reliant on strong quarterback play, there’s no reason Blackmon can’t equal his rookie numbers in 2013 and maybe post 1,000+ yards, especially now that he’s up to speed.

Because FOX didn’t feel like giving an actual grade, I’ll give a B+ to Blackmon for being part of the biggest receiving threat tandem the Jaguars have had in almost a full decade but not being the major threat he should be until week 11.

- Luke N. Sims

Feel free to leave comments on here or visit us at Facebook or Twitter!

You can also find me on Twitter @LukeNSims

The biggest disappointment was Cordy Glenn who was in everyone’s first round mock.  Peter Konz and Janoris Jenkins also played the role of spoiler to just about everyone.

Here is the score breakdown for the participating writers:

1. Daniel: 33 points
2. Luke: 31 points
3. Jason: 30 points
4. Lionel: 30 points
5. Zain: 29 points
6. Dave: 28 points
7. Hof: 28 points

Each correct pick number paired with the correct pick received two points, one point if the player at the selection was drafted at some point in the first round, and zero points if the player was not selected in the first round.

Good work Daniel, someone will look forward to trying to best you next year!

- Luke N. Sims