The Top 5 Pre-Combine Contenders

Star Lotulelei

Lotulelei made some of the biggest headlines this weekend, as a heart “condition” forced him to abandon all Combine workouts and push them to his Pro Day.  Lotulelei was found to have an abnormally low ejection fraction – a measure of the heart’s contraction efficiency – and has spent the next few days undergoing further tests.  While there’s been rampant speculation about what this will do to Lotulelei’s draft stock, the honest truth is that no one, except perhaps Lotulelei and his doctors, can come even close to speculating on that.  Low ejection fraction isn’t a condition itself – it’s just a test result.  While the test suggests that there was something wrong with his heart ability to contract on that day, only further testing will show whether it’s due to something as innocuous as rapid weight loss or something as devastating as some types of cardiomyopathy.  For you Lotulelei fans out there, Dave Siebert did a decent write-up on Lotulelei’s abnormal test over at Bleacher Report.  Regardless of what his doctors end up determining as the cause for his test results, you can bet that teams will be on edge, and will be playing close attention to both his medical records and his Pro Day.

Luke Joeckel

The arguable favorite for the number one pick didn’t really have a stellar combine by most reports, but as a (armchair) GM, why should I care about how far my left tackle can broad jump?  That being said, during a year when most offensive lineman ran impressively, Joeckel’s athletic ability came off as mediocre at best – even sub-par, according to USA Today, although USA Today admittedly isn’t the first place I go to for nuanced draft analysis.  According to them, he looked average even during positional drills, but I have a feeling how he looked against LSU and other SEC heavyweights is going to matter a lot more to Caldwell and co.

Jarvis Jones

There’s not too much to say about Jones, who didn’t participate in the combine except to let doctors take a look at him.  His diagnosis of spinal stenosis four years ago scares teams, and rightfully so, and his decision not to participate in the combine will only cause teams to focus more on the potential medical red flag.  The number one player on Mel Kiper’s big board seems to be falling out of the top five picks according to draftniks, and even though he is a potential fit as the LEO in Gus Bradley’s defense, he’s likely not the best one, and adding that to his  medical history makes it likely that Jones has fallen out of Caldwell’s top five as well.

Feb 25, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive lineman Bjoern Werner runs the 40 yard dash during the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Source: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Bjoern Werner

Arguably the top defensive end prospect in the 2013 NFL draft before the Combine, Werner wasn’t really expected to light up the combine… and he didn’t.  Werner ran an unimpressive 4.83s 40 yard dash with a 10 yard split of 1.66s – which was about the same as Florida DT Sharrif Floyd. When you add in his 9’3 broad jump and a 31” vertical leap, Werner just isn’t quite the athletic specimen that some of the other DE prospects in this draft are – not that he was expected to be.  With these kind of numbers though, managers will wonder how much his relatively marginal athleticism will hinder his NFL potential.  Additionally, after reportedly showing quite a bit of stiffness doing OLB positional drills, he’s likely going to be a better fit as a 4-3 DE.  Is he a potential fit on the Jaguars and as the “Leo”?  He could be on the short list due to his play this year, but due to his athletic and “fit” limitations, I can’t help but think that he’s not at the top of it.

Damontre Moore

The other top defensive end prospect in the 2013 NFL draft before the Combine, Moore was supposed to have a better shot at lighting up the Combine than Werner did.  Although no one was confusing his athleticism with that of the guy he succeeded at A&M, Von Miller, he looked fast and strong on tape and was a monster in the SEC all year.  Yet, he couldn’t have looked worse at the Combine.  After putting up 12 reps on the bench press (six less than the one kicker that worked out at the Combine), he ran an arguably even more embarrassing 4.95s 40 yard dash with a 1.69s 10 yard split.  Yeah, these numbers would look great if Moore weighed 300 lbs, but he weighs 50 lbs less than that!  Like Werner’s, these numbers are comparable or worse than expected first round DT’s like Florida’s Sharrif Floyd and Missouri’s Sheldon Richardson.  He came back with a 10’2 broad jump and 35.5” vertical jump, making a minor case that he’s not completely unathletic, but his top finishes in those categories likely won’t compensate for his embarrassing other numbers.

Earlier this year, Moore admitted being complacent and immature early in his college career when he was playing behind Von Miller.  One can only wonder whether the “success” of the recognition that comes with being a top 5 pick on a Kiper/McShay mock draft made him complacent in the pre-Combine process, and whether that complacency is something that will dog him throughout his NFL career.

The Top 5 (okay, 7) Post-Combine Risers

Dion Jordan

His jaw-dropping unofficial 4.53s 40 yard dash turned out to be a less-insane but still blazing 4.60 officially-timed 40 yard dash, and his 1.57s 10-yard split was tied for third amongst defensive lineman.   His other numbers were pretty stellar as well (10’2 broad jump, 32.5” vertical jump), but what really stood out was how quick and fluid he was in coverage during OLB drills.  Amongst the DE/OLB hybrid types doing the drills, he clearly was the most comfortable in coverage.  He bulked up his 6’6 frame to 250lbs and it sure didn’t look like it hindered his speed, but Jordan could definitely stand to add a bit more to that frame.  NFL staff didn’t get a chance to see his strength (bench press “strength”), due a torn labrum.  He’ll have surgery on the shoulder soon, which has been nagging him throughout the year, but it will likely prevent him from putting on the weight NFL GMs and coaches want to see by the time his Pro Day rolls around; so at some level, the NFL team that picks him will be going based on potential rather than a final product.  But his potential sure looks good, and if you made the argument that Jordan is the best and most versatile fit as the Jaguars “Leo” in this draft, I wouldn’t be arguing with you.

Dee Milliner

How does that vaunted Alabama defense not have a top 10 NFL draft pick?  Milliner’s doing his best to show GMs that not only should he be in the top 10, but arguably, in the top 5.  A big, physical corner that we highlighted halfway through the college season, Milliner’s big question mark, according to Mike Mayock, was his athleticism.  And he squashed those.  With an elite  4.37s 40 yard dash, a near elite 1.49s 10 yard split, and good numbers in the jumping dills (10’2 broad, 36” vertical).  Like Jordan, Milliner also didn’t do the bench press due to a torn labrum, but for a big corner whose shown physicality on tape, that is likely going to be less of a concern.  Although Milliner dropped plenty of balls during his positional workout at the Combine, he likely cemented himself as the top cornerback in this draft, and could be the type of big, physical corner that the Bradley/Babich defense is looking for.  The biggest hindrance to Milliner being a Jaguar may be the depth of the cornerback class in this year’s draft.  Although this isn’t the most polished of cornerback classes, it does have a ton of big physical corners – and a few of whom (Xavier Rhodes, Desmond Trufant, and David Amerson, and others) showed today that they have elite athleticism to go with their size and physicality.  While Milliner may prove to be on the short list for the number two pick, the drop off between Milliner and whose available at 33 (or late in the first round with a trade up) may be the reason why Milliner isn’t the pick at two, despite his arguably stellar combine.

Feb 25, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Louisiana State Tigers defensive lineman Barkevious Mingo runs the 40 yard dash during the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Source: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Barkevious Mingo

As good as Dion Jordan’s combine was, it still wasn’t as good as Barkevious Mingo’s.  These guys are just freaks, and Mingo (barely) out-freaked Jordan this weekend.  He had the fastest 40 yard dash and 10 yard split amongst DE/OLBs, at 4.58s and 1.55s respectively, the second highest vertical at 37” and the furthest (tied) broad jump at 10’6.  Add that to his incredibly smooth linebacker drills, and Mingo has cemented his top 10 potential as a 3-4 OLB – and potentially as the Jaguar’s “Leo”.  Are there character concerns about him and fellow LSU DE Sam Montgomery taking plays off against lesser opponents and making bets as motivation?  You bet.  Those are the type of red flags you don’t want to see in guy you’re considering with a top 5 pick.  Those type of red flags increase the bust potential of a guy like this (who already doesn’t have the production to match his skill set).  But will his skill-set and fit in the Jaguars defense offset that?  I’ll direct that question to Mr. Caldwell

Ezekiel Ansah / Eric Fisher / Sharrif Floyd / Geno Smith

I put all these guys together because they’re not quite at the top of the pile to get drafted with the #2 pick, but their combine has them skyrocketing up “big boards” everywhere.  If you haven’t been following the damage that Ansah did this weekend, you haven’t been following the combine, because he shredded the Combine – even more so than expected.  He wasn’t the most natural in OLB drills, but he wasn’t expected to be.  He still has potential in that area, but that’s why Ansah’s not at the top of these lists right now – he’s got potential in every area but has shown armchair GMs and NFL staff just a piece of it.

Whereas Luke Joeckel didn’t impress athletically at the Combine, Eric Fisher did just that.  The Central Michigan product has been skyrocketing up draftnik big boards, and this weekend Mike Mayock said that the gap between him and Joeckel was very narrow already.  If you add in the superior athleticism and quick feet during positional drills that Fisher showed, any team that’s considering Joeckel as their left tackle of the future is likely looking at Fisher too.

Sharrif Floyd is the big winner during the post-season process thus far, as his stock has been steadily rising since Florida’s season ended, and his Combine is only going to fuel that ship further.  The Combine showed that he’s the most athletically gifted defensive tackle in this year’s draft class, and now he’s looking to take over Star Lotulelei’s top spot in the defensive tackle class.

Geno Smith.  There’s not too much to say about him besides that it’s always been a possibility and the Combine didn’t prove anything different.  He wasn’t perfect but showcased a beautiful arm during most of his throwing workout, and really showed off an athletic ability that may surprise people.  While he’s still a little bit unfinished at quarterback and is going to need some polishing, his workouts this weekend will carry the “top quarterback” and “top overall pick” conversation until at least his Pro Day.

Final Thoughts

The guys who have been mocked most often to the Jaguars had a pretty rough go at the Combine overall, while some of the guys that were being mocked in the 5-15 range really made an impression.  Unfortunately this makes the Jaguars pick even more difficult for Dave Caldwell and his armchair protégés, and likely is making the Jaguars pick less valuable in a trade=down scenario.  On the flip side, it truly gives the Jaguars options in this draft – options that are incredibly diverse and pretty unique in their specific ways, and a lot of these options could actually fit the system that Gus Bradley and co. are trying to put in place.  Defensive End, LEO, Cornerback, Left Tackle, and Defensive Tackle are all legitimate options for the Jaguars, and quarterback might be too.  Don’t stop mocking drafts now – the best of the pre-draft process is yet to come!

– Zain Gowani

The gigantic Hunt may have shown enough for teams to take a chance on his raw potential.  Source: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

There will be a lot of different selections about who “won” the combine, so let’s go ahead and get some of these guys out of the way.  Some players really stood out, while others…didn’t do as well.  Here we’ll look at who really stood out and has made an impression on both teams and fans.

Margus Hunt, DE, Southern Methodist

• I can’t seem to wrap my head around what a tremendous athlete this huge 6’8″ man is.  He’s still learning the game, was a top performer in almost every drill, and has some pretty solid game tape for scouts to look over.  Through and through this guy impresses.  Originally listed as an early second round prospect, I think it’s safe to discuss Hunt as a first-rounder after the combine.

Dion Jordan, DE/OLB, Oregon

• There simply isn’t much you can say about Jordan without being impressed.  He was easily the most fluid pass rushing prospect and is really vying for a spot as the top rusher taken in the draft.  Jordan looked good and has the tape to back it up.  His combine was so good that some teams may fall in love with him which could result in surprising trades on draft day.

Jonathan Cooper, G, North Carolina

• Cooper may have done enough to unseat Chance Warmack as the best option at guard in this year’s draft.  With guards becoming more popular as first round picks in recent years, I wouldn’t be shocked to see them both taken in round one.  At the combine, Cooper made a serious case to be considered better than Warmack and first off the board.

Matt Scott, QB, Arizona

• The more I look at Scott, the more I realize I have to name him as a winner of the combine.  Scott proved to be mobile (a top performer in the shuttle and three cone) and he showed that his arm is at least on par with other quarterback prospects. Geno Smith is still the #1 quarterback on boards, but Scott may be showing enough for teams to question just how close this quarterback class is and to hold off on picking a QB early.

Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

• Milliner was impressive in interviews and his workouts.  He didn’t flash during the field drills as much as some people would like, but he showed he may just be the real deal.  If he isn’t the first corner off the board, I’ll be shocked.   Some teams may fall in love with him and leapfrog to get him.  He showed that he is the top CB prospect.

Who else do you think should be on the list of combine winners?

- Luke N. Sims

Star Lotulelei did not work out due to a heart condition…but you already knew this. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

1. Chris Johnson’s 4.24 40 yard dash combine record is threatened! First wide out of the day, Tavon Austin from West Virginia, blazes an unofficial 4.25! As does WR Marquise Goodwin! Thankfully for Chris Johnson, the official times are always slower.  I heard that some scouts had hand timed Goodwin at 4.19. That is ridiculous. Too bad no one will talk about all the dropped balls Goodwin had during his drills. I actually really do like Austin though. Goodwin may just be a fast guy, but Austin is a wide receiver.
2. Big man runs REALLY fast. OT Terron Armstead from Arkansas Pine-Bluff ran a ridiculous 4.71. The unofficial time was 4.65. Why I do like Armtstead though is that he was rising even before his 40 yard dash. He began getting some recognition at the East West Shrine game, scouts began watching his tape, and all of a sudden he is a day two discussion. The 4.71 goes to show you that he really is that good of an athlete but then again how much stock can we put into a 40 yard dash for offensive an lineman?
3. Tyler Bray can sling it! QB Tyler Bray from Tennessee throws a few good lookin’ deep balls and BAM! He’s supposedly “climbing” draft boards.
4. Jarvis Jones disappears from draft boards altogether? Apparently we should be looking for a draft day slide for Jarvis Jones and his spinal stenosis. USC doctors won’t clear him, so he goes to Georgia where he IS cleared to play. He gets cleared again, then he shows up to the combine and he’s NOT cleared? Who are his doctors? Doctor Dre? Doctor Who? Doctor Zhivago? I hate it for the young man because we all know he can play. Just watch his tape. This is unfortunate, and I’m hearing that he will suffer a DaQuan Bowers-esque slide in April.
5. Star Lotulelei’s heart condition. This is probably the biggest shock. Lotulelei was a projected top 5 pick, and now he can’t even work out? This is highly disappointing, and late last night it was sounding very serious. Today I read that it might not be serious. What have we learned? Based on Jarvis Jones and Star Lotulelei, doctors have a difficult time diagnosing college football players.
6. Chris Johnson’s 4.24 40 yard dash record is threatened again! This time by Auburn RB Onterio McCalebb. I believe he clocked an unofficial 4.21, but his official came out as a 4.34.

I’m going to stop there for now. After all, you can read on these topics anywhere. So in the spirit of banging my own drum, I’m going to highlight what and who I noticed at the combine. I will not waste my time talking about how disappointing Geno Smith was. Is that even news?

Cordarelle Patterson did NOT impress in interviews. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

• Brian Schwenke, OC, Cal 6-3, 314: Brian Schwenke had a respectable showing on Saturday. He ran a sub 5.0 40 (which if you saw this guy, you wouldn’t believe me), and had 31 reps on the benchpress. He only has 32 inch arms, so people will knock him for that, but hey lighten up…this guy is a center! It’s not Schwenke’s combine numbers I want to address. It’s how great he looked in drills like the kickslide and mirror drills. He looks to have good short area quickness, and moved pretty well for a big man. He’s projected to go in the 3rd round. I wouldn’t be disappointed one bit if the Jaguars selected Schwenke in the 3rd, and in the 4th he’d be a steal.
• Christine Michael, RB, Texas A&M: This guy had a chip on his shoulder. He was ready to shock the world. I’m not going to quote him on that, but I’m pretty sure I saw a RT or two of him actually tweeting it. He was a top performer in all drills, but most impressive was his 43.0 vertical which set a new combine record. Michael spent much of his time in the doghouse during his time at College Station, and I’m not too sure why. I’m not saying that just because he can jump really high, he’s going to be a great pro…I’m simply saying that’s super impressive and indicative of good lower body strength.
• Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee: Height/Weight/Speed guy, a lot of experts have Patterson as the top WR prospect. I’m not going to talk about his tape OR his combine numbers. Did anyone else watch his drills? He looked great, but there’s one thing that’s sticking with me. “Have your gloves on when you get to the line, we’re not here to wait on you,” a coach quipped to Patterson as Patterson approached the start of the drill. Did anyone else see Patterson go to the back of the line after his turn and actually take his gloves off after being reprimanded?! The drill was NOT over and he did have another turn. I’m pretty sure he had his gloves ready, but the fact he even took them off after coach told him to have his gloves on and ready…I don’t know. Just doesn’t sit right with me.
• TJ Moe, WR, Mizzou: This guy was sloooow. Ran something awful like a 4.74 40. He did have 26 reps on the benchpress so it shows that he has strength which he will need to compensate for his lack of speed and height standing at 5’11. He has great hands though, and he put them on display with a very impressive one handed snag during drills.
• Margus Hunt DE, SMU/Brandon Williams, DT, Missouri Southern State/Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon/Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M: Now I did see Margus Hunt and Dion Jordan’s ridiculous numbers from today’s drills. Margus Hunt ran a 4.74 40 and had 38 reps. Hunt and Brandon Williams lead everyone with 38 reps on the benchpress. Dion Jordan ran a 4.68 40 yard dash. Damontre Moore did an extremely disappointing 12 reps and pretty much proved his own point, and what his tape has been saying for so long which is…”I don’t deserve to be in the top 10.” Do I think Hunt will be a good pro? Based on what I’ve heard and seen during Senior Bowl week, I don’t believe he’ll deserve a 1st round selection. Too many question marks surround what position he’ll play, and we still don’t know how he’ll do against tougher competition having not played football for too long. He seemed to disappear during Senior Bowl practices. Someone will fall in love with his numbers though and he might have just squeezed himself into the first round. I’m really starting to like Dion Jordan, and I’m wondering if he should be in the discussion for No. 2 overall.

These are just a few things I’ve seen at the combine thus far. Really the combine in 2013 hasn’t proven anything new. It simply mails it home that there are some really good, athletic and talented offensive and defensive linemen in this draft class. Of course every group has shown something so far. There looks to be some serviceable workmen-like backs in the RBs group. The WRs are solid, not spectacular and are a good mix of speed and size. The QBs have a long way to go, but maybe there’s a good developmental prospect who will emerge down the road.

Sio Moore jumping for joy. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

As far as linebackers go, were there any others there besides Manti Te’o? Talk about being under the microscope. The NFL Te’o Combine. Ridiculous! The LB class can’t be THAT shallow can it? There are a few guys in this class I like. Khaseem Greene from Rutgers, Cornelius Washington from UGA,  Chase Thomas from Stanford, and Sio Moore from UConn just to name a few. I think any of these guys will hold value in the mid to late rounds, but none garner higher than a 3rd round selection.

The more and more time that goes by, I’m really starting to like Ezekiel Ansah. I was on the fence at first, with him only having started 9 games in college. I became even more hesitant during Senior Bowl practices. He exploded during the game though, and ever since then his stock has been on the rise. I like his raw talent, and as of now it looks as if he has nowhere to go but up. With so much raw athleticism, I don’t think it’s going to be a question of if he can actually play on the pro level. It will be a question of work ethic. The most important thing will be Ansah’s interview. I don’t believe he has a shady past or any kind of character issues for that matter, but I’d like to get an idea of what kind of person he is. Will he be a hard worker? Will he study and learn the game?

Call me a victim of the moment, but I can see the Jaguars taking him at No. 2 overall. I just think that he has a higher ceiling than a player like Bjoern Werner.

Now let’s see what these DBs can do…

-David R. Johns