Sims-Walker wasn't quite what we needed.... Source: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

On the whole, the Jaguars have failed to find adequate receivers for some time now.  Since the departure of Jimmy Smith, names like Matt Jones, Ernest Wilford, Reggie Williams, and Mike Sims-Walker have attemptedto gain the same kind of respect and production that Smith had.  None have even found a foothold.  With the start of the 2012 season two newcomers to the team will attempt to finally right the ship and fill the shoes of Jimmy Smith.

Laurent Robinson, the number three man in Dallas last year, and Justin Blackmon, the Jaguars 2012 first round pick, have the best shot to put up impressive numbers and begin to be recognized as a top receiver in the NFL.  How do we measure these two receivers?  Should they be compared to past Jaguars receivers and passing offenses or should they be compared to the league greats?  As the headline suggests, I am going to examine the latter.

When comparing Blackmon and Robinson to Fitz, we will have to look at two sets of numbers: his first year in the league to compare to how Blackmon needs to play and his later years to match with Robinson.  Keep in mind that Fitzgerald played with Anquan Boldin in Arizona for a number of years so he was not always the premier receiver on the team.

In Fitzgerald’s first season in the league, he started all 16 games and came away with 58 catches for a respectable 780 yards and eight touchdowns.  His 48.8 yards per game was nowhere near the league leader (Carolina’s Muhsin Muhammad averaged 87.8 ypg) but helped to provide a spark for the team.  His yards per game was a solid 14 below teammate Anquan Boldin but he helped to free up space by drawing defenders away from the other side.

When measuring Blackmon, I think that his ability to get open is similar to that of Fitzgerald’s.  He has the skills to make plays on balls that other receivers do not and he has a knack for slipping past coverage and getting open.  In an offense led by Blaine Gabbert – who I believe to be better than Josh McCown ever was – the odds of Blackmon getting a few more balls from the passing game are pretty high.  I think that anywhere from 45-50 yards per game would be a success for Blackmon in his rookie year and would show that he is on the right path to be similar to one of the modern elite receivers.  To keep pace with Fitzgerald, Blackmon does not have to be the best receiver on the team during his rookie season but, rather, a very strong contributor.

Comparing Fitzgerald to Robinson, we need to look at the production of Fitzgerald in his sixth season and see if Robinson can project to emulate that success in 2012 (entering his sixth season).  As we do this, it is important to note that in 2009 (Fitzgerald’s sixth season), Kurt Warner had a superb season following Arizona’s 2008 Super Bowl run.  In 2009, Fitzgerald had 97 receptions, 1,092 yards, and a career high 13 touchdowns.  He accounted for about a fourth of all passing yards for the team that season.  He consistently beat coverage and tied his counterpart, Boldin, with 68.3 yards per game and had an impressive 11.3 yards per reception.

Is Robinson's game Fitz level? Source: Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

Robinson has showen aptitude at his yards per reception, turning anything he touches into a big gain. In 2011, Robinson posted a whopping 15.1 yards per reception, more than doubled his yardage from the year before (344 to 858) and increased his receptions from 34 to 54.  His production per reception is greater than any of Fitzgerald’s until the 2011 season.  Robinson’s 11 touchdown receptions are a career high and should only rise with more targets and being a considerably larger receiver for the Jaguars in the red zone (in comparison to the rest of the receiving corps).  While this will be Robinson’s third team in three years and fourth in his six years in the league, his ability to turn it on could make him comparable to Fitzgerald when he takes over as the premier receiver in Jacksonville.

While projecting Robinson to become Fitzgerald is a bit more difficult than Blackmon, the potential for both players to have breakout years and possibly be in the discussion as some of the best receivers on the season is there.  Gene Smith did a good job getting top-flight receivers to Jacksonville for the coming years and that should translate into success for the passing game.  Blaine Gabbert isn’t Kurt Warner, but he’s a lot better than Josh McCown and has some serious upside in comparison to John Skelton and Derek Anderson.  If Fitzgerald can do it with no supporting cast, then I think one of the two Jaguars’ new targets can probably make a run and gain a foothold to start finally filling Jimmy Smith’s shoes.

- Luke N. Sims

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Who Can The Jags get to help Mike Thomas? Source: Don McPeak-US PRESSWIRE

The wide receiving position in Jacksonville is dismal.  It’s almost depressing to look down the roster and see who is available to catch the ball.  Here at B&T we’ve done an in depth analysis of the Jaguars’ wide receiving woes, but we’re now able to look to the future and contemplate who we should take in the draft to establish a receiving corps to rival the likes of Harrison and Wayne in Indy or Carter and Moss in Minnesota.

There are four very, very good looking prospects coming out of the combine.  Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Alshon Jeffery, and (now) Stephen Hill out of Georgia Tech.

But before we delve into who the Jags should take to focus their passing game around, we have to establish what it is that the Jaguars need.  The Jaguars really only have one good receiver on their roster, Mike Thomas.  Thomas plays best in the slot and benefits from having prototypical #1 or #2 receivers on the outside to draw coverage.  Unfortunately the Jags have yet to find a true #1 or #2 receiver to put outside.  Recent experiments have included Mike Sims-Walker (twice), Jason Hill, and Jarett Dillard.

With two open spots to fill the Jags are likely looking for a speed threat (what Hill was supposed to be) and a strong, big bodied possession receiver.  While the Jaguars will probably target one of the two in free agency, it’s helpful to look at the draft and see who the Jaguars could make off with in order to gauge what they could need best.

Which brings me to the draft scenario.  The Jaguars may be looking to trade back in the first round, or into the second round if the man they want is no longer available at seven or if they think it isn’t worth picking up the player at that point.  The only wide receiver I see worth taking at seven is Justin Blackmon.

Blackmon has been a sexy wide receiver pick since he started posting monster numbers over at Oklahoma State (read: since the dawn of time).  Blackmon benefitted from a mature quarterback in Brandon Weeden (age 28) and a passing game tailored to getting wide receivers open and swinging big.  His 38 touchdowns in the last two seasons at OSU demonstrate a nose for the endzone.  Coupled with his ability to rack up yards no matter where he catches the ball, Blackmon has been proving he’s a true #1 since he first took to the field.  However, at only 6’1″ and 215 pounds, the Jags may look for a bigger target to give Gabbert as he develops.

If Justin Blackmon is not available at seven, or if the Jaguars feel they don’t need him, look for the Jaguars to trade back in the first round.  Later in the first round, the Jags should have the ability to pick up either Michael Floyd or Alshon Jeffery.

Floyd looks good coming out of Notre Dame. Source: Matt Cashore-US PRESSWIRE

Floyd, in my humble opinion, is the better of the two (and not because he’s from Minnesota).  Floyd is a decent 6’3″ 220 pounds and can be very dynamic on the outside.  While not as prolific at finding the endzone as Blackmon, Floyd’s four years at Notre Dame resulted in a respectable 37 touchdowns.  Most notably, he didn’t drop a pass until very late in the last season.  He has incredibly sure hands and manages to look the ball into his hands as he catches, focusing well.  I rank him higher largely because of his maturity as a receiver and his consistency in the Notre Dame offense.  His 4.47 40 times isn’t bad either.  Floyd could be an excellent possession receiver for the Jaguars.  He outplays the defender with crisp route running.

Alshon Jeffery is also a superb mid to late first round prospect.  His size is superb at 6’4″ 229 pounds.  If the Jags really need a true #1 receiver and Blackmon is off the board, I wouldn’t be shocked to see them take the Junior out of South Carolina.  Jeffery had a major decline in production in 2011 (49 receptions, down from 88 in 2010) but still appears to be a dominant force in a good system.  It didn’t help that the quarterback play in South Carolina was very poor.  Though that begs the question, if he only excels with a perfect quarterback, how will he help Gabbert?  I trust that Jeffery will be able to be a successful NFL wide receiver and will be a safe pick that could provide a stable wide receiver for the Jags.

Stephen Hill looks like he could be a legitimate speed threat coming out of the second round. Source: Josh D. Weiss-US PRESSWIRE

To this point, I haven’t mentioned Kendall Wright.  Wright seems to be free-falling down draft boards, especially after running a 4.61 40 at the combine.  In contrast, Stephen Hill out of Georgia Tech is climbing rapidly due to his 4.36.  Hill is projected as a second round pick, but knowing Gene Smith he could easily be taken late in the first.  Hill is coming through the same school that produced Calvin “Megatron” Johnson.  While only catching 28 balls in 2011, Hill notched an impressive 29.3 yard average and 820 yards.  The speedster forces the defense to be wary of deep balls, ensuring that a defender has to play over the top to protect against a long pass, thereby freeing up space for Maurice Jones-Drew to run.  If the Jaguars are tired of seeing eight and nine man fronts against Pocket Hercules, expect the Jaguars to take a long look at Stephen Hill.  Being 6’5″ and 206 pounds is a knock against him as a physical presence.  Think Randy Moss.  Yeah, I didn’t think that was a bad thing either.

While I think that those four are top prospects are for the Jaguars, there are plenty of good wide receiving prospects in this draft.  I also have Nick Toon (Wisconsin) and Mohamed Sanu (Rutgers) rated pretty highly for myself and the Jags. But hey, it’s all speculation at this point.

- Luke N. Sims

Someone please make these guys an elite group of pass catchers! Source: Jaguars.com

I don’t know if you have noticed, but the Jags’ receivers have been subpar as of late.  And by as of late, I mean the past three years.  Not only have the Jaguars failed to draft or sign an elite wide receiver, nobody on the roster seems eager to even step up and become that man.  Since Gene Smith’s arrival in Jacksonville three years ago, we’ve had three different receivers claim the title of “top receiver.” One, Mike Sims-Walker, somehow managed to get his way back onto the roster this past season despite him, rightly, being cut at the end of 2010.  Mike Thomas (2010) and Marcedes Lewis (2011) are the other two who have been top targets for the Jaguars quarterbacks.

Can it really be that hard to sign an elite, true #1 receiver that can actually catch the ball?  Maybe it’s that a lot of them have character issues…(yes, you Chad Ochocinco and Co.)

But why has Gene Smith been so absent minded when it comes to the wide receivers?  (Our tight ends are actually pretty solid, and Marcedes Lewis should return to dominance in 2012) (more…)