Coaches like Mike Mularkey may not always have the best past statistics to make them great head coaches, yet he pulls it off..usually (just not in 2012).  Source: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

As I look around at the Jacksonville Jaguars head coaching candidates, I keep trying to infer the possible success of the Jaguars based on the statistics of the coaches.  Do we rule out coaches that don’t have a top 10 defense or offense?  What do we do with special teams coaches?  Are we focusing on past head coaching experience?  What about passing offense, do we want to focus on that over the run?  These are all questions that run through my head whenever names like Jay Gruden, Mike McCoy, and Brian Schottenheimer are thrown out.  Despite having Greg Roman as the supposed “top candidate” we Jags fans are ultimately in the dark.  We simply don’t know if Caldwell wants a defensive coordinator, a special teams coordinator, or an offensive coordinator or whether that person has to have a track record of success.

Of course, names like Gruden, Roman, and McCoy do have a lot of success.  But does it really matter?  I was thinking about this as I watched the Green Bay Packers play the San Francisco 49ers.

Mike McCarthy is a fantastic head coach.  I’d put him up against Bill Belichick and Tom Coughlin any day.  But before he was hired by Green Bay  he really wasn’t that much.  He had two good seasons as an offensive coordinator for New Orleans in 2002 and 2003, but, ultimately, his offensive rankings were mediocre.  His one year in San Fran was abysmal.  Yet his mind is so well respected that Green Bay knew they had to have him.  Since then the Packers have hoisted the Lombari and put up gaudy stats on offense.

Belichick’s team is in the playoffs again and nobody is shocked.  Who would  have been able to predict this based on his time in Cleveland?  Source:  Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

Bill Belichick is like Darth Sidious.  You may not like him (though many do) but you have to give credit where credit is due.  The guy has made New England the greatest dynasty since the Dallas Cowboys in the 19990s.  Yet during his time in Cleveland as a head coach, his team was mired in mediocre land.  The Browns hired him in large part due to his great work as the defensive coordinator of the New York Giants.  Yet in his first stint as a head coach he was nothing exceptional.  He left for another coordinating job and ultimately ended up making the Patriots one of the greatest NFL dynasties of the 2000s.

Keith Armstrong doesn’t seem like much on paper, but maybe he’s that next guy.  Maybe his special teams work with multiple teams can translate to win after win in Jacksonville.  Maybe Roman and his successful Niners offense is that guy.  But, really, we don’t know.  This is why the interview process is so important.  The interview process can make mediocre ex-head coaches like Mike Mularkey stand out in comparison to their previous record.  The interview process can tell you that McCarthy will make a good head coach.  Yet we all look at that past statistics as well.

The primary flaw with using past statistics as the primary indicator is that the prospective head coach is always orchestrating the goals and plan of their head coach or general manager.  The coach could be a premier defensive mind but can’t seem to rank high in the statistics because the team focuses more on building a crazy good offense.  Similarly, a really good offense could be the product of an offensive minded head coach more so than the coordinator.  Ultimately, as armchair GMs and fans, we simply can’t tell from this far away how good a coaching prospect is going to be.  Our best guesses may be ballpark at best.

Will this stop me from forming opinions based on the body of work presented?  No.  But it will make me respect the selection that Dave Caldwell makes.  While Gruden or Roman may become top candidates because of what they have done, keep in mind that there may be some flaw hidden deep within the pages of history that we can’t see.  We’ve been told to not judge a book by it’s cover, and in hiring a head coach it may be one of the more important lessons we have learned.

- Luke N. Sims

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In fact, based on a poll by FOX Sports, the Jaguars’ Mike Mularkey will have the least success out of Tampa Bay’s Greg Schiano, Miami’s Joe Philbin, Indianapolis’ Chuck Pagano, and Oakland’s Dennis Allen.  Yes, you read that right.  Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, and Miami are all expected (based on almost 3,000 votes) to have more success than Mike Mularkey.

This is a man who will quietly make a splash in 2012. Source: US-Presswire

Despite fielding a top ten defense and returning almost every starter from the defense and the defensive coordinator, Mike Mularkey is only expected to have the most success out of the group by 10% of voters.  What does Indy have that gives them an edge at 11%?  Does Andrew Luck really turn an entire team into winners?  While the season will give us a true answer, I’m willing to say “no” for right now.

What about Miami?  They took third place in the voting with 22% (considerably higher than the two AFC South teams with new coaches).  Joe Philbin ran a good offense in Green Bay, but most of it is Mike McCarthy’s brain child.  Is Philbin going to be able to turn Ryan Tannehill into Aaron Rodgers?  Will he even end up looking like Matt Flynn?  Despite the questions about Miami’s coaching staff (and I like Joe Philbin, though question what he did and what McCarthy did in Green Bay), the strength of the roster is truly minimal.  We all know that Jacksonville is the 32nd most popular franchise, it’s pretty obvious Miami has some people still hoping for the next Dan Marino.

Dennis Allen in Oakland pulled in second place with 27% of the vote to be the most successful first-year head coach in 2012.  Of the coaches outside of Mike Mularkey (who I truly do think could be the most successful) I think that the situation in Oakland could translate into success.  Darren McFadden is good, really good; a resurgent Carson Palmer would be a great boon to the new coach; and no longer having Al Davis hanging over everyone like Johnny Raincloud will free up some open thinking and new approaches to the game.  Beyond that though, I don’t have a lot of hope for Allen.  While Davis won’t be around to fire him after his first five games, the culture in Oakland does not seem too far removed from him the Al Davis era.

Seriously, I don't even know if a guy can look any more solid than Schiano. Source: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Why Greg Schiano of Tampa Bay is expected to be the most successful first-year head coach makes a bit more sense to me.  Apparently 30% of the people polled agree.  Of the coaches, I think that Schiano has the best attitude (sorry Mularkey).  I think he says the right things, has the right approach to the game, knows how to manage his team well, etc. But I don’t think he knows how to win on the NFL level.  The guy knows how to motivate and lead, but what about his schemes?  What about his coordinators?  What about his roster?  Coming into Tampa Bay, I think that Schiano’s roster is the best of the five head coaches.  I’m not a Josh Freeman fan, but the young talent on the team is bubbling up to the surface quickly.  The Bucs made some big splashes in free agency, and I think that Schiano is the right man to lead them.  However, until he starts winning I’m not willing to put all of my eggs in his basket.

While I’m a Mularkey fan and think that he has the best shot to make a move toward being the most successful (that Jaguars defense is tough to argue with), look for Schiano to share in some of that glory as well.  I fully expect Miami to be mediocre (yes, even with Chad Ochocino), the Colts to look like they are beginning to rebuild because they are, and the Raiders will probably continue to be the same Raiders we’ve seen since they lost the Super Bowl to the Bucs.

Expect a few more people to be jumping onto the Black and Teal bandwagon during the 2012 season.  And if another Florida franchise not from Miami does pretty well, don’t be shocked too much.

- Luke N. Sims

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How Could you NOT Hire a Face Like That?

Editor’s Note: This article is from Black and Teal’s newest contributor, Daniel Lago.  He’s got some pithy insight into the Jaguars going into the offseason.

Before we delve into the Jaguars coaching search, let’s take a look at a few numbers and pose a question.

1. 36 Wins – 44 Losses. One playoff appearance as a head coach
2. An offensive coordinator who just led the lowest scoring offense in the NFL.
3. An offensive coordinator who just led the highest scoring offense in the NFL.

If you were to hire one of these three candidates to coach the Jaguars, which one would choose? Follow the jump to find out. (more…)