Although most people in the Jaguars organization, along with the media and the Jaguars’ fans, would agree that Blaine Gabbert’s growth is the biggest need for the Jaguars this year, I decided to start with the longest need we’ve had in recent history: a pass rush.  Getting a pass rush has been The Big Need for the last four years or so.  Since the infamous draft of 2008, the Jagaurs have swung and missed on defensive ends, which undoubtedly played a role in the Jaguars’ decision to draft DE Andre Branch and spend $27 million re-signing Jeremy Mincey, who’s never had more than last season’s eight sacks in his six year career.

Last year, the Jaguars’ pass rush had been more productive than it had in recent years, but the 31 sacks they accumulated still left them tied for 25^th in the league, along with defensive bottom dwellers like Carolina and Indianapolis.  A team that ended up ranked 5^th in defensive efficiency has no business being so far down the rankings in such an important defensive statistic.   Even though sack numbers don’t tell the whole story about effective a team’s pass rush is, as the Jaguars’ GM, staff, and even fans have pointed out at various times the last couple seasons, it seemed pretty curious to me that a team that improved so much (32^nd in defensive efficiency in 2010 to 5^th in 2011; 5^th in both pass and rush defense efficiency!!!) showed such little relative improvement in the sack department.  Just like any other defensive play, sacks are nowhere near isolated.  They depend on the run-stopping, coverage, sub-packaging, etc. that form the foundation of any great defense.  Don’t they?

We're depending on you, Andre Branch. Source: Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

As it turns out, seemingly they do.  And while statistics don’t always flat out lie, in cases like this they can be very misleading.  While the Jaguars were by no means an elite pass-rushing group (as any tuned-in Jaguars fan could tell you), the “Rushmen” were certainly better than a simple sack number can give them credit for.  Football Outsiders (compilers of the defensive efficiency rankings hyperlinked above) dug deeper to produce a statistic that represented a team’s pass rush more accurately: adjusted sack rate.

What is the sack rate adjusted for, you may ask.  Pretty important things actually.  How about strength of schedule – strength of an opponent’s ability to pass protect?  Playing Tennessee twice a year, the best pass-protecting team in 2011, probably turned a few would-be-sacks into pressures.  What else does it account for?  Intentional grounding penalties, pass attempts, down, and distance.  As you might imagine, sacks go up on 3^rd downs, especially on 3^rd and longs.  Thus, an accurate statistic needs to adjust for the number of 3^rd downs a team faces, as well as the distance before a first down.

How do the Jaguars fare in adjusted sack rate?  Not too badly actually.  Our adjusted sack rate was 7.2%, 13^th in the league, and 0.4% higher than the next team on the list, the concussion-specialist Steelers (comparatively, we were only 0.4% lower than the 7^th ranked team, suggesting we probably held up the end of the second tier of teams with regards to sack-rate.  For more details, click the second hyperlink.).  This is up from our 22^nd ranking last year at 5.8% – that rate would’ve left us at 26^th this year.  So yeah, the Jaguars didn’t get better in every single defensive category except sacks; they got better with regards to sacks too.  Much better.  And considering the injuries we faced on the defensive line (Roth, Chick, Alualu, Lane…) and in the secondary (Mathis, Cox, etc. etc. etc.), that is a pretty impressive improvement.

Come back John Chick! You weren't that bad! Source: Phil Sears, US Presswire

How come we ended up ranked 25^th in sacks last year?  One major component was the pass protecting quality of the opponents we faced.  I took the relative pass protection rankings of the opponents we faced in 2011-2012 and their average rank came out to 12.9; so, instead of rushing the 16^th ranked team in terms of pass protection (if our schedule was “average”), our defensive line was rushing against the 13^th ranked team in terms of pass protection.  But this is still an overestimate, because it uses relative ranks instead of absolute numbers.  So I recalculated using adjusted-sack rates.  And you know what?  It turns out our D-lines schedule was even more difficult.         The average adjusted-sacks-allowed rates of our opponents last year was 5.78%, a number which fits squarely between the 9^th and 10^th best pass protecting teams.  So it’s like our D-line was facing the 9.5^th best pass protecting team all year (as opposed to the 16^th, if they  had an “average” schedule).

Given these numbers, and the players we’ve acquired and gotten back from injury, let’s look towards 2012-2013 and try to find a realistic goal might be.  If we stay healthy this year, I think we can reach the top of the second tier of adjusted sack rates (7.6-7.8%), which would represent a healthy jump (0.4-0.6%) in pass rush.  A 0.4% to 0.6% boost in sacks would give us between 32 and 33 sacks on the year next year – which would allow us to jump from 25^th in the sack rankings to 24^th.  Clearly not impressive.  But remember, a 0.4-0.6% boost would be applied to adjusted sack rate, not total sack numbers.  This boost should increase our total sack numbers, but may not depending upon the opponents we face and the other such variables it takes into account.  Just for fun, let’s try to calculate what the Jaguars’ sack number would look like if our adjusted sack rate remained constant (7.2%).  If the adjusted sack rate remains constant and if there’s an inverse linear relationship between opponent pass protection (as a function of adjust-sacks-allowed rate) and total number of sacks a D-line will produce, the number of sacks the Jaguars should produce next year can be estimated by the pass protecting abilities of their opponents, assuming all other variables like intentional grounding penalties and total number of pass plays run are relatively constant.  A quick calculation of our 2012-2013 opponents’ adjust-sacks-allowed rates and relative ranks shows that next year, the average team we’ll face will have a relative rank of 15.3, and an adjusted-sacks-allowed rate of 6.5, which corresponds to a team ranked just between 16^th and 17^th in terms of pass-protecting abilities.  Using that in conjunction with our adjusted-sack rate, as a function of opponent adjusted-sacks-allowed rate in 2011-2012, our sack rate would be 8.15% – top 5 in the league and just at the bottom of the first tier of defensive behemoths that include the Eagles, the Ravens, and the Vikings!  Obviously, this makes a number of assumptions, but it shows two things: 1. Our defense rushed the passer (in terms of sack production) at a way better rate than what we may have thought… and 2. With a slightly easier to rush schedule next season, we may see another boost in sack  numbers!

Watch out world – Here come the Jaguar Rushmen!

– Zain Gowani

During the NFL draft just a few days later, the Jaguars drafted a total of two players at those three positions, both of whom were picked after the third round.  Add the free agency acquisitions of Matt Roth and Drew Coleman to 2011 draftees Cecil Shorts III and Rod Isaac, and you have four total players added at those positions during the offseason – and none of whom, I might add, had the potential to be a star or even a playmaker during the 2012 season (a very diluted argument for Drew Coleman or Cecil Shorts III may potentially be had).  One year later, one of those players now has two NFL catches to his name, two of them are searching for new teams to play on, and the fourth had made truly no impact last year.   All in all, Gene Smith and the Jags didn’t really make a huge commitment to the positions of need in the 2011 offseason and have thus far missed on the small commitments they did make (the impact Cecil Shorts III and Rod Isaac will have is still very unclear, but the total impact of both Coleman and Roth has been set in stone, since neither will be back with the team next year).

One year later (just a few months ago), Pro Football Focus released another pre-draft/pre-free agency report detailing the Jaguars’ needs.  Surprise, surprise. The top three needs on the list? Wide receiver, defensive end, and cornerback.

As bad as 2010-2011 had been for those positions, last year was arguably even worse.  It certainly was worse at wide receiver, where the Jarett Dillard/Mike Thomas combination was an abomination as far as a 1-2 receiving punch goes.  Defensive end was a bit better, as the Jaguars hit a three year high with 31 sacks on the year, and Jeremy Mincey broke out in a big way (a very timely breakout season, I may add).  Like much of the defense, defensive end was hit hard with injuries.  Aaron Kampman re-tore his ACL, and he, Matt Roth, and John Chick all ended up missing games due to injury during the season.  Cornerback was a bit of a mixed bag, as the top three corners for the Jaguars (Rashean Mathis, Derek Cox, and William Middleton) all had good years, but all of them also ended up missing significant time due to injury.  Mathis will be fighting an uphill battle to return to form in the coming year, while Cox and Middleton will try to stay healthy and carry over their production (hopefully consistently) into the coming year.

However, Gene Smith’s approach this offseason has been different.  The Jaguars were significantly less active in free agency, but focused hard on positions of need.  WR Laurent Robinson, WR Lee Evans, and CB Aaron Ross were major free agent acquisitions, and re-signing DE Jeremy Mincey was key to maintaining (and perhaps upgrading) the defensive line.  In addition to this, he drafted WR Justin Blackmon and DE Andre Branch in the first two rounds, bringing two blue chip prospects to help fix the Jaguars’major needs.

Yeah, you're the man now Laurent. Source: Alan Maglaque-US PRESSWIRE

The difference in Gene Smith’s approach to the Jaguars’ needs the last two years brings up some questions as we try to evaluate our team’s progress over the last few years and specifically, evaluate his progress as a general manager.  Why were our major needs more or less ignored during the offseason last year, while being a focus of this year’s offseason?  Was it a question of availability?  Was it a question of neglect?  Was it a question of undue faith in his previous draft classes?  Even more to the point – how much was Gene Smith responsible for our 5-11 season last year and the lack of development shown by the Jaguars at these key positions?

Perhaps there weren’t enough quality WRs, DEs, and CBs available in last year’s free agent class and draft.   A quick look at the draft class last year suggests that perhaps there were some availability questions mixed in.  Sure, we could’ve gotten Prince Amukamara, Adrian Clayborn, or Ryan Kerrigan (disclosure: who I wasn’t a fan of, by the way) at 16, but the chance to get a franchise quarterback (which was also a pretty big need) easily trumps impact players at these high need positions.  In the third round, there were a number of WRs/DBs taken right after Rackley, but WRs Austin Pettis and Leonard Hankerson were the only ones I would’ve been comfortable taking there – and it’s not like offensive line wasn’t a pretty big need either.  However, a look at the free agent class brings a few more questions.  The free agent class was filled with young WRs that had shown consistent production (Santonio Holmes, Sidney Rice) and/or plenty of potential (Malcolm Floyd, Lance Moore).  Oh, and Laurent Robinson.  He signed with San Diego for the veteran minimum last year. If you look at last year’s free agent defensive end class, you’ll again see impressive combinations of youth, production, and potential – in its best forms in Charles Johnson, Tamba Hali, Jason Babin, and Mathias Kiwanuka.  I’ll save you the time by just saying that the cornerback class was equally as impressive (Namdi Asomugha, Johnathan Joseph, Champ Bailey, Chris Carr, and Antonio Cromartie).

It wasn’t solely a question of availability.   While the draft didn’t offer tons of potential to supplement our biggest needs, free agency certainly did.  However, the problem with free agency is its cost.  The contract numbers of the guys we’ve been talking about fall in the $40-50 million range with $20-30 million guaranteed.  That’s a ton to pay for a player that doesn’t play quarterback, and if you’re going to shell out that kind of cash, he better be a cornerstone player and you should have no reservations about his production.  Unfortunately, free agency didn’t really provide those kinds of players.  Guys like Santonio Holmes, Sidney Rice, Jason Babin, Mathias Kiwanuka, and Champ Bailey all had questions of consistency, injury, character, or age.  Guys that were relatively question-free, like Charles Johnson, Namdi Asomugha, Tamba Hali, and Johnathan Joseph all got signed to enormous contracts, ranging from $49 million with $25 million guaranteed (Joseph) to $76 million with $30 million guaranteed (Johnson).

All in all, I’m willing to throw Gene a bone here.  I see why our key needs stayed the same between 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 – we just didn’t have enough of an opportunity to change them.  This year, we seized a few opportunities, and we have enough pieces to make huge strides at these positions.  While some of the moves made this offseason (giving $34 million with $14 guaranteed to Laurent Robinson) were more questionable than others (signing Lee Evans, drafting Blackmon), Gene’s given the Jags the opportunity to succeed next year, and in the offseason, that’s all I can ask for.

- Zain Gowani

Wide receiver has received a lot of attention recently.  And as it should.  The Jaguars signed Laurent Robinson from Dallas who they believe can make another step to a top level in the NFL.  The Jags also drafted Justin Blackmon, the consensus best receiver in the 2011 draft.  They further added insurance by bringing in Lee Evans from Baltimore who, if he recovers, could have a shot at making the roster and performing well despite depleted numbers in seasons past.

But what about defensive end?  What happened to the position that the Jaguars felt was so necessary to upgrade?  As we all know, the pursuit of re-signing DE Jeremy Mincey was a success (thankfully).  He led the team with eight sacks in 2011 and appears to be on the rise, entering the prime of his career.  But what of the other defensive end slot?

The Jaguars used a “guess and check” philosophy at defensive end last season.  They grabbed as many mid-range DEs as they could find and tried them at the spot, hoping that one of them would stick.  Mincey stuck on one side.  But what of the other?

Austen Lane has been a coaching favorite since being picked in the fifth round of the 2010 draft. He'll have to prove he can hang with Branch to continue being given opportunities. Source: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Matt Roth seemed to be doing well last season with 3.5 sacks (tied for second best on the team).  John Chick also seemed to be coming on strong at some points (2.5 sacks).  But really, the only player that the team had some solid confidence in, or so it felt, was Austen Lane who ended the season with one sack in six games (one game started).

So, who’s going to make the jump to hold down the defensive end slot?  Matt Roth was let go during free agency, John Chick is a rotation man, and Austen Lane just may be supplanted as the coaches’ favorite.  Enter, Andre Branch.

The team picked Branch from Clemson in the second round of the 2012 draft.  He has long arms, a big body, high motor, and appears to have a knack for getting after the quarterback.  Defensive line coach Joe Cullen is very excited about Branch.  It appears that Cullen may have even coveted the player heading into the draft.

Branch has yet to play at pro football speed, but if we can believe what the coaches are saying, he definitely has the opportunity to be successful in the NFL.  And not just because of the physical tools that the Jags saw in him.  Branch knows that at the NFL level, everybody you’re playing is there because they are good.  He knows that he has the physical tools to be successful but isn’t thinking that is how he is going to beat the opposition.  He knows he needs to outmuscle, outposition, and outthink the man in front of him.

Branch knows he wants to be better than average.  He wants to be great.

Here in Jacksonville, with an open defensive end slot, it looks like he’ll be given every opportunity to become just that.

- Luke N. Sims